Tuesday, August 27, 2024

The left shouldn’t fear bringing up January 6th

It is difficult to pinpoint exactly when it was in the wake of Donald Trump’s 2016 election that the hyper-online concept of the hashtag-resistance began, but it didn’t take long. Legions of people who had either shied away from potentially divisive political conversations (or were easily able to forget their previous opposition to George W. Bush) stylized themselves as freedom fighters in what was sure to be a uniquely toxic era. Mostly, it was a coping mechanism—while anybody can surely admit when pressed that tweeting #resist is not a sincere form of activism, it wasn’t as though it was acting as a substitute for anything other than posting about one’s latest meal. There were inevitable feelings of helplessness, exacerbated by an administration that barely pretended to have interest in governing for those Americans who voted for Hillary Clinton.

There was, and is, an easy counterpoint that can be made from the political left—for as off-putting as Trump’s decorum could be, it wasn’t as though his practical agenda differed dramatically from boilerplate American conservatism. Trump ran on fantastical promises that inevitably did not come to fruition—a pledge to save American jobs in increasingly obsolete industries, a plan lacking even a first step to solve the American opioid crisis, and most infamously, a promise to build a massive wall across the southern border and force Mexico to pay for it. Trump, of course, did not accomplish any of these things, but he did get Congress to pass massive tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans. His first three years were mostly par for the course for a Republican administration: even, in my opinion, his most egregious mistake, a lack of response to Hurricane Maria clearly inspired by his lack of belief that Puerto Rico is not really part of America, did not result in materially less efficient results than the Bush administration’s response to Hurricane Katrina. Bush mostly handled things, despite Kanye West’s comments to the contrary, with visible (if performative) empathy, while Trump’s idea of assistance was to throw toilet paper at the displaced like they were throwed rolls at Lambert’s Cafe, but when the end result is ultimately homelessness, small gestures of caring probably don’t matter that much.

From an administrative perspective, the low point of the Trump years was the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. To be clear, there were many factors beyond Trump’s control which were inevitably going to put the United States behind much of the western world in stopping the disease’s spread—stopping the disease relied heavily on individuals looking out for others, and treating the disease relied heavily on a functional health care system, and neither of those things are strengths of America before, during, or after Trump. But ultimately, it was so much worse than it needed to be. And the primary driver for this was that Donald Trump was motivated to win another term as president. A voluntary pause of the economy, which would destroy the metrics by which many undecided voters ultimately make their electoral decisions, was inconceivable.

When it came time to vote in November, most Americans saw an economy which had suffered simultaneously with a much higher mortality rate than the rest of the world. And while Donald Trump received a historic number of votes—more than any candidate prior to 2020 ever had—Joe Biden received even more. More relevantly from a practical perspective, Joe Biden had also won by the Electoral College, the bizarre and absurd but ultimately more significant system by which Americans actually choose their president. It took four days for major television networks to declare a winner, but this was more the result of an unusually high number of mailed ballots (many of which could not legally be counted until polls closed in their respective states) than of the race being particularly close—Biden had defeated Trump by an identical margin to Trump’s 2016 victory in the Electoral College, and it was the largest margin of victory by a candidate in the popular vote since 2008.

In 2016, in the very first election of Donald Trump’s political career, Ted Cruz won the Iowa caucuses, and Trump responded by claiming that the fix was in. Ultimately, nothing came of this—Cruz retained his Iowa victory while Trump eventually ran away with the Republican nomination. By the time of the Trump/Hillary Clinton general election showdown, when asked if he would honor the results win or lose, Trump pledged to accept the election results if he won. Even in the wake of his victory, Trump claimed that he had actually won the 2016 popular vote but that corrupt Democrats had fixed the vote (as much as the Democrats of the 2010s could be questioned for their political acumen, “rigging an election that does not matter rather than the one that does” seems pretty dubious even by their standards). When Donald Trump claimed that the 2020 vote had been fixed, nobody who had paid attention could be surprised—no, he hadn’t done this before, but it was only because he had never needed to do so.

Almost immediately after January 6, 2021, there was a specific brand of norms fetishist that compared what happened at the United States Capitol to 9/11, and let me be very clear—from a perspective of tangible effect, this comparison is downright offensive. Not to diminish the deaths and injuries that occurred on that surreal Wednesday afternoon and evening, but in terms of pure scale, it was not close. It is ultimately an apples and oranges comparison. The real event to which January 6th could be compared reasonably in semi-modern American history is the Watergate scandal, the event which forced the lone resignation in the history of the American presidency. And yet, such a comparison seems offensive in the opposite direction. What Richard Nixon did—helping to cover up espionage committed by his political cronies—was a bad thing. What Donald Trump did was exponentially worse.

The only comparison in American history that seems even remotely close to what Trump did was the outright treason of John Tyler, the former president who served in the Confederate congress. And by the time that happened, John Tyler’s career in American politics was essentially over. Donald Trump is essentially a coin-flip to be the forty-seventh president of the United States. This after, with no tangible evidence and not even particularly compelling anecdotal evidence, Donald Trump not only refused to personally admit that Joe Biden had defeated him, but compelled his most fervent supporters to risk their own lives and freedom. He threatened to withhold critical support to Georgia governor Brian Kemp and secretary of state Brad Raffensperger, extremely conservative politicians by any definition of the word other than “ones with the most fealty specifically, individually, to Donald Trump”, if they couldn’t uncover the 11,780 votes that would have been necessary to make Trump victorious in Georgia. When the violent mob that Trump had incited chanted that Mike Pence, an extraordinarily sycophantic vice president for Trump during the first 99.42% of his term, should be hanged for his refusal to overturn the Electoral College results, Trump agreed with the mob.

Conservative Republicans, in the moment, condemned the violence, even if Donald Trump has proceeded to attempt to gaslight Americans into believing that what they could easily see play out on their televisions was not reality. But if what these Republicans were claiming—that a massive conspiracy had undermined the sincere will of the people in order to install an unelected commander-in-chief to the nation’s highest office—then committing property damage and boldly asserting that we would not stand for such a miscarriage of justice would be entirely justifiable. The problem, of course, is that Joe Biden had won the election. There were rightfully recounts in close states, and they further established that Joe Biden had won. Donald Trump, however, was incapable of admitting that he had lost, just as he had in the 2016 Iowa caucuses and just as he almost surely would have had Hillary Clinton won the Electoral College that November.

That Donald Trump was not convicted in his second impeachment trial, which would have formally prohibited him from holding office ever again, is a definitive example that convicting a president in the Senate is impossible in the modern era without a supermajority holding power. There was some case against voting to convict at Trump’s first impeachment trial; at the second, it was the equivalent of O.J. Simpson’s murder trial if the murders had also been caught on camera. And while all 48 Democrats and two independents (Angus King and Bernie Sanders, both of whom caucus with Democrats) voted to convict, only seven of the fifty Republicans in office voted for conviction. Of the seven, three have since left the Senate, one has announced his retirement at the end of his term, two have yet to face re-election, and only Lisa Murkowski of Alaska has survived into another term. There were grave consequences for many House Republicans who had voted for impeachment—most famously, Wyoming representative Liz Cheney, a hyper-conservative politician, lost badly in the 2022 Republican primaries as a consequence of her vote for impeachment.

To be clear, Democrats should not run for office solely on January 6th as a political identity. While I believe in giving credit to the Liz Cheneys and Mitt Romneys of the world for doing the right thing, that doesn’t mean I believe that they should not be competed against for a litany of other reasons. But turning January 6th into the territory of the corniest of #Resistance libs is completely missing the point. This isn’t a matter of Donald Trump tweeting out something crass—this is a matter of Donald Trump outright prioritizing himself over the 81 million-plus people who contributed votes to Joe Biden’s winning 2020 campaign. My senator, noted coward Josh Hawley, should be forced forever to answer for the fact that he objected to recognizing the votes of Americans due to political expedience, and my representative, Ann Wagner, although she gets some modicum of credit for voting to recognize all electoral votes, should forever be forced to wear her “no” vote on Trump’s second impeachment. Only two of the ten Republicans from the 2020 class who voted to impeach Trump survived into a 2022 term; it is appalling that these representatives received such a backlash for doing the right thing while Republicans who catered to Donald Trump, some of whom had the audacity to claim that impeachment inquiries were unnecessary because Donald Trump was clearly done with his political life.

It sucks knowing that if justice is served and Donald Trump once again loses a presidential election, he isn’t going to concede. I am not even going to add a “probably not” caveat—he has proven repeatedly that he will not do this. He is once again going to encourage his supporters to fight the unfair system, and the only thing that might stop us from something on a 1/6/21 scale is that somebody other than Donald Trump will be in charge of dispatching security. But this is the point we’ve reached.

Tuesday, August 20, 2024

Grading the DNC Roll Call Playlist

When it was announced that Joe Biden was not going to seek re-election, I thought I might get to see the first interesting roll call in my lifetime at a convention. And then everybody coalesced quickly around Kamala Harris and I abandoned my dream. But then they brought out a DJ and it somehow worked.

On a political level, turning the Democratic National Convention into a party was a good idea--complaining about Donald Trump isn't as fun as being genuinely excited about one's candidate. But as somebody who is fascinated by politics and music, I feel so seen.

Here are my grades for every song played during the roll call. Admittedly there were a couple I missed so if I got any wrong I apologize!

Alabama. "Sweet Home Alabama"--Lynyrd Skynyrd. F. The politics of Lynyrd Skynyrd are famously complicated--they were Jimmy Carter-loving, George Wallace-hating Democrats who are today mostly embraced by, and mostly embracing personally, Republicans. The real problem here is that Lynyrd Skynyrd isn't even from Alabama. I could give this a pass under some circumstances, but Alabama has plenty of other songs to play. Play "Machine Gun" by Commodores and call it a day.

Alaska. "Feel It Still"--Portugal, the Man. A. Look, the bench of songs by Alaskan artists that would get people excited is really thin. I would have preferred "Live in the Moment" but at least they didn't go with Jewel.

American Samoa. "Edge of Glory"--Lady Gaga. D. It's a fun enough song but if you're going to have the choice of every American song ever if you aren't committing to your own territory, I'm holding you to an extremely high standard.

Arizona. "The Edge of Seventeen"--Stevie Nicks. B. It's an anthem and it's by an artist from Arizona. What more do you want?

Arkansas. "Don't Stop"--Fleetwood Mac. C. It's a great song and an iconic political song, but going with the Clinton song in 2024 feels exhausting. That was 32 years ago, guys. It can almost run for president itself.

California. "The Next Episode"--Dr. Dre/California Love--2Pac/Alright--Kendrick Lamar/Not Like Us--Kendrick Lamar. A. I guess it's weird that the candidate from Oakland didn't go with a single NoCal artist but back-to-back-to-back-to-back bangers will have to do.

Colorado. "September"--Earth, Wind and Fire. B. Everybody loves it and Philip Bailey is from Colorado, but this is not a band formed or defined by Colorado so it's a little confusing. "Rocky Mountain Way" by Joe Walsh or OneRepublic or something could've been fine, too.

Connecticut. "Signed Sealed Delivered"--Stevie Wonder. C. An absolutely baffling choice. But I guess Connecticut isn't exactly known for hitmakers.

Delaware. "Higher Love"--Kygo/Whitney Houston. D. Either pick a song Joe Biden would like or pick a George Thorogood song.

Democrats Abroad. "Love Train"--The O'Jays. B. People all over the world are joining hands. I get it.

District of Columbia. "Let Me Clear My Throat"--DJ Kool. B. It's a party and they're from DC. A B is the minimum grade this could possibly receive.

Florida. "I Won't Back Down"--Tom Petty. A. Iconic song, iconic political song (Republicans have been receiving cease and desist orders for decades for it), Florida musician and a song with specific ties due to it being sung at Florida football games. No notes.

Georgia. "Turn Down for What"/"Get Low"--Lil Jon. A. On sheer energy this one was an A, but realistically it's an A+ once Lil Jon himself showed up. No song checked every box this thoroughly.

Guam. "Espresso"--Sabrina Carpenter. C. Uhhh, okay. Fun song, though.

Hawaii. "24K Magic"--Bruno Mars. C. Going with Bruno instead of like Don Ho is the right call but just go with Uptown Funk. I know it's technically a Mark Ronson song, but also nobody is going to complain.

Idaho. "Private Idaho"--The B-52s. B. It's pretty incongruous with the state itself, but it's also a bop.

Illinois. "Sirius"--Alan Parsons Project. A. No, they aren't from Illinois. They aren't even from America. But it is synonymous with the Michael Jordan Chicago Bulls and, especially playing in the United Center, is simply beautiful. Though they should've probably donated it to Nebraska, who also uses the song and is much more desperate.

Indiana--"Don't Stop 'Til You Get Enough"--Michael Jackson. B. Jackson vs. Mellencamp is a tough decision--I enjoy the music of both, and while Mellencamp has the distinct advantage of not being credibly accused of pedophilia, picking an extremely white guy for boomers isn't a great message (even if he himself is an ardent political liberal). Also, they picked the (I think I mean this) best Michael Jackson song.

Iowa. "Celebration"--Kool and the Gang. D. Not sure what Slipknot song would've worked here but picking a song this generically obvious is a letdown.

Kansas. "Carry On Wayward Son"--Kansas. A. I don't even like this song. But, like, it's obviously the correct song.

Kentucky. "First Class"--Jack Harlow. C. I guess Harlow is cooler than other Kentucky natives, and it's not like Cage the Elephant was going to move the needle. Maybe go "Lovin on Me"? Not exactly an artist who makes convention-ready jams.

Louisiana. "All I Do Is Win"--DJ Khaled. C. He's from Louisiana but he's mostly associated with Miami, so I might've gone a different direction. But apparently this is also an LSU song.

Maine. "Shut Up and Dance"--Walk the Moon. D. Options were limited in Maine but again, you could've picked anything if you were gonna go with a band from Cincinnati.

Maryland. "Respect"--Aretha Franklin. D. Look, I'm not going to be the one talking smack on friggin Aretha Franklin. But she's not from there. This song has no discernible connection to Maryland. And it's not like Baltimore is lacking in cultural imprint. Weird choice!

Massachusetts--"I'm Shipping Up to Boston"--Dropkick Murphys. A. Yes, it's a cliche, but there's a reason Martin Scorsese finally won Best Director when he decided to use this song twenty times in a movie. It's a killer.

Michigan. "Lose Yourself"--Eminem. B. Look, it's a banger. Even if it's the kind of song that is the one rap song some people know, it's not a bad one to know! But also, Michigan has so many classic songs by artists of color (including but not limited to Motown) so bequeathing Stevie Wonder was kind of odd. But this is still better than most states have.

Minnesota. "Kiss"/"1999"--Prince. A. Playing something off the album "Tim" by the Replacements would've been a little too spot-on. Yeah, they could've gone with a deeper cut, but these songs are classics for a reason.

Mississippi. "Twistin' the Night Away"--Sam Cooke. B. Sure.

Missouri. "Good Luck, Babe!"--Chappell Roan. A. As a lifelong Missourian, I was dreading Nelly. I would've settled for Chuck Berry. But they went with an actual contemporary song with actual popularity at this very moment. Love it! And an explicitly gay song for a red state!

Montana. "American Woman"--Lenny Kravitz. D. The original artist is The Guess Who, who are from Winnipeg, which is close to Minnesota and vaguely close to Montana. This is all I've got.

Nebraska. "Firework"--Katy Perry. F. Why? Just...why?

Nevada. "Mr. Brightside"--The Killers. A. When you pick your state's greatest native banger, you've made a solid choice. No arguments from me.

New Hampshire. "Don't Stop Believin'"--Journey. F. An absolute cliche and an artist that is absolutely nowhere near New Hampshire on the map. Pass.

New Jersey. "Born in the USA"--Bruce Springsteen. C. Its use by the right has been mocked for years, but to be clear, it's not exactly a song about how great Democrats are, either. But also it's a definitively New Jersey song by a New Jersey legend so I'm not going to play dumb about why they went with this.

New Mexico. "Confident"--Demi Lovato. B. Did you know Demi Lovato is from Albuquerque? I did not know this until today. Salute.

New York. "Empire State of Mind"--Jay-Z. D. Jay-Z has a million bangers about New York and they go with this boring nonsense.

North Carolina. "Raise Up"--Petey Pablo. B. A generation ago, this would be "Carolina On My Mind" by James Taylor after he got passed over yesterday. But this ain't your boring uncle's Democratic Party.

North Dakota. "Girl on Fire"--Alicia Keys. D. I guess because Kamala Harris is a woman? If you wanted to honor her, you should've snagged one of those California songs.

Northern Mariana Islands. "Ain't No Mountain High Enough"--Marvin Gaye and Tami Terrell. C. I don't know anything about Northern Mariana Islands. Maybe this is a perfect fit for them. I don't know. It's fine.

Ohio. "Green Light"--John Legend. C. Well, he's from there. I might've gone with "Cleveland Rocks"--heck, the version most people know at this point is by a band called Presidents of the United States of America. Could've gone with some other Ohio song too, but I guess it doesn't matter.

Oklahoma. "Ain't Goin Down til the Sun Goes Up"--Garth Brooks. A. He's certainly the state's biggest star and he's been a longtime Democratic supporter and it's a fun song. What more do you need?

Oregon. "Float On"--Modest Mouse. B. From Oregon. A popular riff. Probably the most popular song of that type of Oregon band.

Pennsylvania. "Black and Yelow"--Wiz Khalifa. A. A Pennsylvania artist is one thing but an explicitly pro-Pittsburgh song, an area that is arguably the most important metro area in the entire election? You know what it is.

Puerto Rico. "Despacito"--Luis Fonsi. A. This sounds insane but is this the single most significant pop culture thing from Puerto Rico ever? Like, it was a massive song in the English-speaking world. I can't even imagine how big of a song it was in the Spanish-speaking world. 

Rhode Island. "Shake It Off"--Taylor Swift. D. Deeply confusing choice. Even Pennsylvania didn't go with a Taylor Swift song!

South Carolina. "Get Up"--James Brown. B. He's more associated with Georgia at this point, but James Brown is a South Carolinian who made some of the most widely liked music in American history. Solid choice.

South Dakota. "What I Like About You"--The Romantics. D. I like the song but it feels so strange without any local connection to go with this song. They're from Michigan but it feels like they could be from like Utah or something, and in that case this would be a good choice.

Tennessee. "9 to 5"--Dolly Parton. A. White liberals need to chill the hell out about Dolly Parton from time to time but the song that's inherently about working hard is the right choice. Even I can't dispute this one.

Texas. "Texas Hold'Em"--Beyonce. A. Texas Democrats had to choose whether to honor their large nonwhite contingent or the state's country music legacy and they managed to do both.

Utah. "Animal"--Neon Trees. B. It's not "Everybody Talks" so I approve. It is funny for me to imagine that Neon Trees might be a huge deal in Utah, though.

Vermont. "Stick Season"--Noah Kahan. B. It's a good song but it's like an anti-bop. But he's from Vermont! At least it wasn't Phish!

Virgin Islands. "VI to the Bone"--Mic Love. B. I've never heard this song in my life but shouts to a territory picking a true local artist.

Virginia. "The Way I Are"--Timbaland. A. Virginia has more cool music than you might realize. They could've gone with Pharrell. They could've gone (relatedly) with Missy Elliott. They could've appealed to 2024 and picked Tommy Richman and that would've been fine. But Timbaland is simply wild in all the best ways. Thumbs up.

Washington. "Can't Hold Us"--Macklemore and Ryan Lewis. C. I'm done with getting getting mad at Macklemore--I don't think he's great but I do think he's sincere. This isn't some Post Malone-style culture vulture. But I'm so sick of this being the only Washington song. There's so many other options.

West Virginia. "Take Me Home Country Roads"--John Denver. B. I am an all-time hater of this song being used at St. Louis sporting events because, well, St. Louis is quite famously not in West Virginia. But even though John Denver isn't from there, it's undeniably a song about West Virginia. Could've maybe gone with "Lovely Day" if you wanted to pick Bill Withers or "Accidental Racist" if you wanted to pick the funniest possible choice, but this is good.

Wisconsin. "Jump Around"--House of Pain. A. Wisconsin is weirdly lacking musically, hence why Green Bay Packers broadcasts constantly play Steve Miller Band. And "Take the Money and Run" is more of a Trump message, so going with the hype song for the University of Wisconsin is a great call. I don't even like the song in a vacuum but sometimes you just need a jock jam.

Wyoming. "I Gotta Feeling"--Black Eyed Peas. C. I don't care for the song and they are obviously not from Wyoming, but as the last song of the rotation (although they went back to Minnesota and California for the sake of the ticket), this does work, as corny as it is.

Sunday, August 4, 2024

Donald Trump is a political loser

An underrated phenomenon in American electoral politics is the disadvantage that political parties tend to have in presidential elections. Post-World War II, an imperfect but reasonable proxy for when the mass media age began, there have been seven cases of a political party winning two presidential elections in a row—Eisenhower, Kennedy/Johnson, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton, W. Bush, and Obama. And in only one of those cases—George H.W. Bush succeeding Ronald Reagan—did the winner of the third election come from the same party as the winner of the first two.

There are, of course, some extenuating circumstances. Post-Watergate and post-Iraq/Katrina/economic collapse Republicans were so deeply unpopular that Gerald Ford and John McCain were likely drawing dead before the election began. But America was relatively prosperous and peaceful when it eschewed the vice presidents of Eisenhower and Clinton and a Secretary of State of Obama. Richard Nixon’s 1960 loss is perhaps the most instructive of the cases—he had the largest margin of defeat by electoral votes and was the only one to also lose the popular vote. And it wasn’t as though Dwight Eisenhower’s popularity tanked in his second term: the moment from the 1960 campaign that is most remembered today was the televised presidential debate in which John F. Kennedy appeared handsome and charming while Richard Nixon, by any reasonable standard a very intelligent man, looks sweaty and came across as standoffish. What America wanted was less of a political realignment and more of a national vibes shift.


When Hillary Clinton participated in her first election, for a Senate seat in the blue state (albeit, a less blue state than it is today) of New York, she was running essentially even with Republican New York mayor Rudy Giuliani when Giuliani, amidst a cancer diagnosis and a public divorce, abruptly dropped out of the race. Clinton eventually beat Republican Rick Lazio by 12.26% in a state that Al Gore carried by 24.98% in the presidential election. Clinton, as an incumbent in a strong 2006 for Democrats, won re-election handily, but she ran behind New York gubernatorial non-incumbent Eliot Spitzer. In 2008, she was the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, backed by most of the party establishment, but she lost to freshman senator Barack Obama. And then when she ran again in 2016, despite the overwhelming (and possibly nefarious) backing of the Democratic Party, she lost 23 of the 57 Democratic contests to the severely underfunded Bernie Sanders, a mid-seventies self-described socialist who never ran for office as a Democrat before.


I am not reciting Hillary Clinton’s electoral history as a means of dunking on her as a person nor as a civil servant—I think she is very obviously competent and was the subject of plenty of unfair (though quite a bit of fair) political criticism. But she was simply never successful as a political candidate. There is no evidence to suggest an ability to win elections that were not slam dunks.


In the single greatest victory of his political career, Donald Trump received nearly three million fewer votes than Hillary Clinton. In a cycle where Republicans won by 1.1% over Democrats in House elections, Trump lost by 2.1%.


Obviously, the popular vote was irrelevant in determining who would become the 45th president of the United States, but the popular vote did still happen, and it marked the first time that Hillary Clinton ever outperformed the Democratic Party. But this popular vote loss was still one of Trump’s better electoral performances. Despite candidates such as Ted Cruz, John Kasich, and Marco Rubio dropping out along the way, Trump still received less than 45% of Republican votes. In 2020, he once again was outrun by Republicans in House elections en route to the biggest popular vote defeat by a major presidential candidate since 2008 while running against a former longtime political loser in Joe Biden.


The perception that Donald Trump is a good political candidate is largely based on two things, one of which is inaccurate and one of which is accurate. The former is that he keeps claiming everybody loves him—even before he encouraged his supporters and his vice president to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election under the presumption that he must have clearly won as a tautological result of his self-evident greatness. The latter is that Donald Trump’s supporters are passionate, which is true. The parts of rural Illinois I’ve driven through dozens of times to or from my wife’s family in Wisconsin have typically voted Republican, but Ron DeSantis wasn’t inspiring conservatives to paint murals on the roofs of their barns. They weren’t gathering in droves just to be a part of a Nikki Haley rally. But in an inversion of Richard Nixon’s “silent majority”, Trump supporters are the extremely loud ones. In a flip from the Obama era, it was Republicans who were relentless in online canvassing. Surely there are exceptions in Joe Biden’s family, for instance, but every Biden voter (and Clinton voter, and inevitable Kamala Harris voter) I have ever known does not view this as a central part of their identity. Even in the cases of two potential history-making candidates, and even in the case of those who wear their politics on their sleeves, the movements are built around a collective vision. The ones who brought down the house at a recent Harris rally in Georgia were Megan Thee Stallion and Quavo. Even if Trump did a better job of courting more hip celebrities, the star at any Trump rally will inevitably, always, be Donald Trump.


In modern American history, parties tend to jettison those who lost presidential elections from presidential politics. Even when they remain involved on a legislative level, such as Mitt Romney or John Kerry, there has never been a clamoring for them to run again. The last presidential loser to become a candidate again was Richard Nixon, who had the benefits of reassessing his political coalition over an eight year gap and of having mounted a much stronger campaign in 1960 than Barry Goldwater did in 1964. But Donald Trump hasn’t felt the need to reassess his approach because he has deluded himself into a belief that he actually is extremely popular, having won in two popular landslides if not for massive electoral corruption. To be clear it is possible, perhaps even probable, that Trump does not actually believe this line, but it is what he keeps telling anyone who will listen. He hasn’t made any effort to sway Joe Biden voters, and while in 2016 he at least made (vague) overtures to corporate outsourcing and the opioid epidemic, vowing to end these bad things that Barack Obama had not fixed, at this point, the entire Donald Trump campaign is centered around Donald Trump. When recently asked about his increasingly unpopular running mate J.D. Vance and whether he would be ready to take over as president if Trump were to die in office, he dismissed the notion that vice presidents actually matter. And in the mind of Donald Trump, the protagonist of his own reality and somebody for whom the world ends when his life does, this was probably a vanishingly rare example of him telling the absolute truth as he sees it.


Kamala Harris has not previously held a particularly strong reputation as a political candidate—not unlike Hillary Clinton, she won races in a dark blue state by somewhat less than you might expect margins. And in the last presidential election cycle, despite some pointed criticisms of Joe Biden in their first presidential debate, Harris 2020 didn’t even survive 2019. But she also found herself at a crossroads: she was not an unapologetic lefty like Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren, nor a committed centrist like Joe Biden or Pete Buttigieg; she didn’t even get the monopoly on a historic campaign given the presence of another woman in Warren (and to a lesser extent Amy Klobuchar) and an openly gay/historically young man in Buttigieg. In a ranked-choice voting scenario, where she would likely finish third on a ton of Sanders/Warren or Warren/Sanders ballots, Harris didn’t have a reasonable path forward.


The reason that Kamala Harris has a considerably better chance of becoming the 47th president than she did of becoming the Democratic nominee for the 46th is because unlike in 2020, she now has the chance to run against a historically unpopular presidential candidate who has made no efforts to change. This is a man who got *shot at a political rally*, got a photo opportunity that a PR team could only dream to concoct, and his popularity remained stagnant. Donald Trump has been the main character in America: The Series for almost a decade; people have made up their minds. And the verdict seemingly is what it always has been—America doesn’t like Donald Trump.