On September 16, 2020, mere minutes after the latest
transactional National Hockey League news broke—a trade which sent Eric Staal
from the Minnesota Wild to the Buffalo Sabres in exchange for Marcus Johansson
and a contract extension for new Montreal Canadiens acquisition Joel
Edmundson—the two most powerful men in the NHL were locked in what would become
the most significant negotiation of the day.
“You know we can’t have this, right?” Donald Fehr, a
legendary sports union negotiator and the decade-long head of the NHL Players
Association, sipped on his Coors Light, the official beer of the National
Hockey League, in full view of his laptop camera on a Zoom call with NHL
commissioner Gary Bettman.
Bettman replied, “It’s not about what anyone wants. Nobody
wants this.”
“Of course you want this. Don’t pretend this is about the
state of the game, Gary. You’re the voice of the owners, and the owners don’t
want to pay players.”
“They do if it’s how the league keeps going,” Bettman
confidently asserted. “Look, you know how important ticket revenue is in this
league. This isn’t the NFL or the NBA—we’re taking a massive hit.”
As much as Donald Fehr, a man who viewed Gary Bettman as his
current greatest professional adversary, did not want to admit it, he knew
Bettman was right. The league took a substantial hit due to COVID-19, and the
league’s television deal wasn’t strong enough to withstand it. Maybe this was
in the long term Bettman’s fault, but it didn’t matter now.
“I understand that the cap can’t go up. I understand that
RFAs can’t cash in like they wanted to. But if the NHLPA agrees to salary cuts
for the same amount of work, that sets a dangerous precedent. As a one time
thing, yeah, maybe I get it, but then why can’t they take less because you negotiated
a TV deal with the Tennis Channel and the league’s trying to get them to air
Finals games instead of some Borg-McEnroe match from 1983 or…look, we can
handle a year of the salary cap being the same. It’s not ideal but it’s
understandable and we can revisit it next season. But it can’t go down.”
“Don, we don’t have the money we had last year. You can
check our books, but I promise you aren’t going to see anything that helps your
argument.”
Fehr rubbed his hand against his face before an idea dawned
on him. “So we need money, right? And fast, and it can be a temporary fix—we
don’t expect the virus to still be an impediment a year from now, right?”
“Right,” Bettman passively replied, not sure the direction
in which Fehr was heading.
“What if we unleashed the Kraken?”
And with those six words, the National Hockey League decided
that the Seattle Kraken would begin play one year early.
Bettman placed calls to Seattle’s co-owners, David Bonderman
and Jerry Bruckheimer, and inquired about their promised $650 million expansion
fee. Asking for such an exorbitant sum on such short notice was going to be
difficult, but this fee was going to be paid at some point. So Bettman made an
agreement—in exchange for immediate payment, Seattle would be granted the 2023 All-Star
Game and a 100% cut of the game’s revenues. These revenues would pale in
comparison to the fee, but in conjunction with an additional year of typical
revenue, all for a fee the owners would be paying anyway? Bonderman and
Bruckheimer agreed.
Donald Fehr was thrilled by the news—expansion meant more
NHLPA jobs, after all. Gary Bettman believed he was making the right decision,
but he also needed to break the news to the owners—there was about to be an
expansion draft for which the teams were not prepared.
The draft would follow the same rules as the 2017 draft
which allowed the Vegas Golden Knights to build a team that, in year one, made
the Stanley Cup Final. Bettman, on a call with the front offices of the
league’s teams, assured them that what happened with the Golden Knights was an
anomaly—that the more restrictive protection lists from the expansion drafts
seventeen years prior were designed to make an expansion team viable, not
great, and that it was the brilliant tactics of George McPhee that made Vegas
an instant sensation rather than the format (McPhee, who was on the call,
chuckled).
It was agreed that the Seattle Kraken would, like Vegas,
select a player from each NHL team, thirty-one in total, while staying in
compliance with the league’s salary cap, still at $81.5 million thanks to the
arrival of the Kraken. For the draft, only players with more than two seasons
in the NHL or its highest minor league, the American Hockey League, were draft
eligible. Of this group, teams could protect one goalie, three defensemen, and
seven forwards, or one goalie and eight total skaters regardless of position.
All players with a No Move Clause in their contracts were required to be
protected; players with a No Trade Clause were fair game for Seattle. The transactions
would only become official at the conclusion of the Stanley Cup Final--players
slated to be Unrestricted Free Agents, such as Alex Pietrangelo and Taylor
Hall, could technically be drafted by Seattle, but this would merely give them
exclusive negotiating rights for a few days, and no compensation could be
granted. There would be very little advantage to selecting such players.
Two days later, all thirty-one teams submitted to the league
and to Seattle their protection lists. Most teams had a few obvious players to
protect, but a few notable players were made available to Seattle. In sharp
contrast to 2017, however, the Kraken were not permitted to make trades in
which not selecting a particular player (or selecting a particular player) was
part of the agreement. They could, however, draft a player and then trade him
later for picks. For instance, if the Colorado Avalanche decided they really
wanted to protect their eighth-best forward or fourth-best defenseman but were
unable to do so in the expansion draft, they could not stop Seattle from
picking him, but Seattle could in turn ask for a draft pick to trade him back.
This would impact the draft itself compared to 2017, but have less impact on
the construction of the 2020-21 Kraken than one might think.
As was the case in 2017, the draft is conducted by selecting
players from teams in reverse order of the league standings. This allows the
drama to build, generally speaking—the Detroit Red Wings don’t have as many
appealing players available as the Boston Bruins, for instance. Throughout the
draft, the kind of team the Kraken plan on fielding will come into shape.
Without further adieu, here is the draft.
Detroit Red Wings
Goalie:
Jonathan
Bernier
Defensemen:
Madison
Bowey, Filip Hronek, Patrik Nemeth
Forwards:
Tyler
Bertuzzi, Robby Fabbri, Darren Helm, Dylan Larkin, Anthony Mantha, Brendan
Perlini, Dmytro Timashov
With 39
points in 71 games in 2019-20, the Detroit Red Wings were easily the worst team
in the NHL last season, and as such, it was not much of a challenge to find
eleven players to protect. The team regularly played two goalies, one of whom
(Jimmy Howard) is a pending UFA and one of whom, Jonathan Bernier, is a
competent if unspectacular rotation goalie who, at $3 million for one more
season, is hardly an albatross. Among blue-liners, the easiest choice is
Hronek, the leading scorer among defensemen at 22 and still on his entry-level
contract. Nemeth was the clear #2, and although his contract is a tad heftier
at $3 million for one more season, he is one of the more consistently competent
Red Wings. And while Madison Bowey is hardly integral, he is the only remaining
defensemen with double-digit points last season and his salary is a mere $1
million, as he is still in the Restricted Free Agency stage of his career.
The team’s
four leading scorers last season were all forwards who were 25 or
younger—Larkin, Bertuzzi, Mantha, and Fabbri—so those were all easy saves.
Darren Helm is a bit overpaid at $3.85 million, but he is a long-time Red Wing
who is at least still a double-digit point scorer, and they do still have a salary floor to reach.
Brendan Perlini was outright bad last season, scoring only one goal and tallying
only three assists in 39 games, but he is a former lottery pick who scored
double-digit goals in each of his previous three NHL seasons, so for less than
a million dollars as a restricted free agent, he is a worthy prospect for the
Red Wings to maintain. The pickings are a bit slim for the #7 forward slot, but
Dmytro Timashov, who scored nine points as a rookie last season, doesn’t make
very much money and makes so little money that a team would still rather have
him than not. For Detroit, that’s all it takes.
With
the first pick in the 2020 NHL Expansion Draft, the Seattle Kraken select
Calvin Pickard, goaltender from the Detroit Red Wings.
First, I
have to make a promise to you—I did not make
this choice as a joking nod to the 2017 Expansion Draft, where Vegas also selected Pickard with the #1
overall pick. Pickard isn’t a very good player and I suspect he won’t make this
team. But, well, Detroit doesn’t offer a lot of great options. The list of
draftable players are mostly overpaid, washed up veterans (Danny DeKeyser,
Valtteri Filppula, Frans Nielsen, and especially Justin Abdelkader, who
inexplicably still has three years remaining on his $4.25 million contract and
who tallied three points, all on assists, in 49 games last season), and at
least with Pickard, he’s only making $750,000 for a year and he does have NHL
experience, including a season as a primary starter. Also, he played junior
hockey in Seattle, so there’s that.
Ottawa Senators
Goalie:
Anders
Nilsson
Defensemen:
Thomas
Chabot, Christian Wolanin, Nikita Zaitsev
Forwards:
Connor
Brown, Anthony Duclair, Jayce Hawryluk, Nick Paul, Bobby Ryan, Chris Tierney,
Colin White
With
long-time goalie Craig Anderson a pending free agent, Ottawa gets to choose
between one of two goalies who also got ample playing time last season: Anders
Nilsson or Marcus Hogberg. They were statistically similar last season and
Hogberg is younger, but Nilsson is a more proven commodity, having been a
respectable backup goalie for nearly a decade. Defensively, the Senators, for
being a not very good team, have recovered decently the loss of Erik Karlsson
in the defensive realm. Although Chabot is not cheap, at $8 million for the
next eight years, he has already positioned himself as an elite talent,
certainly one an expansion team would jump at the chance to have. Nikita
Zaitsev isn’t quite to that level, but he has formed a formidable top pair with
Chabot and makes a reasonable $4.5 million for the next four seasons. And
although a case could be made for Mike Reilly as the third defenseman to
protect, Christian Wolanin, who missed most of last season but played well the
year before and makes less than a million dollars next season and will still be
an RFA the season after that, is a solid player who could be coveted by a team
shooting for high-upside talent.
Because
Brady Tkachuk, no worse than the second-best forward on the Senators, is not
yet eligible for the Expansion Draft, it is that much easier for the Senators
to avoid exposing top offensive talent. Brown, DuClair, and Tierney, the
mid-twenties RFAs who are the next-best forwards on the team by raw offensive
production, are obvious saves. Bobby Ryan is less than ideal, given his greatly
diminished production and his $7.25 million price tag over the next two years,
but given his No-Move Clause, the Senators are contractually obligated to
protect him. Colin White is a slightly unusual choice, as he is a non-star who
makes $4.75 million over the next half-decade, but he is a 23 year-old
first-round pick who received Calder votes last season; he is among the team’s
higher-upside talents. Although there is some temptation for the Senators to
protect Artem Anisimov, a 15 goal scorer last season, he is on the wrong side
of thirty, which is why the Senators instead protected Jayce Hawryluk and Nick
Paul, young forwards who played the 2019-20 on entry level contracts.
With the second pick in the
2020 NHL Expansion Draft, the Seattle Kraken select Marcus Hogberg, goaltender
from the Ottawa Senators.
Two
goalies in the first two picks may seem a bit unusual, but the price is
absolutely right for him. Hogberg is a second or third goalie at best in the
NHL, but he will make just $700,000 next year before reaching restricted free
agency; for that price, and given that Seattle is selecting from a team that
would have been regarded much worse had the Detroit Red Wings not existed, the
25 year-old Swede is a solid choice.
San Jose Sharks
Goalie: Martin Jones
Defensemen: Brent Burns, Erik Karlsson,
Marc-Edouard Vlasic
Forwards: Logan Couture, Dylan
Gambrell, Tomas Hertl, Evander Kane, Kevin Labanc, Timo Meier, Marcus Sorensen
Given that
this team was in the conference finals in 2019, their immediate descent into
abject mediocrity was a bit quick, even if they were a bit long in the tooth
even when they were good. But a combination of lack of prospects and no-move
clauses make their protected list a reflection of this. Although Martin Jones
is, mostly rightly, a punching bag in goal, San Jose is a bit stuck with
him—there isn’t another expansion draft-eligible goalie in the organization.
And the Sharks are forced to protect two defensemen via NMCs—Erik Karlsson, a
once-elite blue liner who looks as though injuries have rendered him a lost
cause, and Marc-Edouard Vlasic, even more conclusively an extension bust. There
is a case to be made that Brent Burns, who isn’t cheap, should be exposed as he
is made a bit redundant by Karlsson, but circumstances suggest the Sharks need
to steer into things and hope for a rebound in 2020-21—it’s not likely, per se,
but it’s far more likely than that Detroit or Ottawa will contend.
At
forward, the Sharks don’t have any no-move obligations. Logan Couture, the
team’s captain, had a little bit of a down 2019-20, but given his upside, $8
million is a reasonable price tag. Tomas Hertl, at $5.625 million for the next
two seasons, and Timo Meier, at $6 million for the next three years plus
another RFA season, are the offensive bargains, and by the team’s standards, they
are babies. Kevin Labanc also fits the Hertl bill, and as he is still in his
RFA years, he if nothing else has far more trade value than they should
rightfully let leave in an expansion draft. While Kane is arguably a touch
overpriced, he’s too good of a player to resist. In the realm of more
cost-effective forwards are Marcus Sorensen, who makes $1.5 million, and Dylan
Gambrell, who still has another year remaining on his entry-level contract.
With the third pick in the
2020 NHL Expansion Draft, the Seattle Kraken select Alex True, center from the
San Jose Sharks.
In some
cases, the Kraken aim for guys who can make a dent in the 2020-21 season, and
in other cases, they aim for low-cost players who may not do much but won’t
dramatically hurt the team, and Alex True is the latter. The Danish forward has
only played in 12 NHL games, tallying four assists and no goals, but he was
productive the year before in the AHL, with 24 goals and 31 assists in 68
games, and he still has another year remaining on his ELC. If nothing else,
True is the kind of low-cost player that Seattle could easily flip for a low
draft pick, which is better than an albatross contract.
Los Angeles Kings
Goalie: Calvin Petersen
Defensemen: Drew Doughty, Matt Roy, Sean
Walker
Forwards: Michael Amadio, Dustin
Brown, Martin Frk, Alex Iafallo, Adrian Kempe, Anze Kopitar, Austin Wagner
We finally
have the chance of a true big-name player being selected, as the Kings left
two-time Stanley Cup champion and former Team USA starting goalie Jonathan
Quick exposed. It’s a simple case of risk aversion—Quick has been in decline
over the last several years and the Kings would be forcing the expansion club
to spend $5.8 million for each of the next three years on a risky player, which
they may or may not do, but they’d definitely jump on Calvin Peterson
for under a million for the next two seasons. The Kings are required to protect
Drew Doughty, a very good but rather expensive defensemen, but have more
fluidity with their next two choices. Matt Roy is obvious—he is a top three
Kings defenseman while still making entry-level money. Sean Walker was #2 on
the team in average minutes per game among defensemen, and he earns a
reasonable $2.65 million over the next four seasons.
The team’s
best forward by a fair margin is Anze Kopitar, and he is paid like it--$10 million
on a poor team may seem like a mistake, but the Kings would not be able to find
a player of Kopitar’s caliber in the off-season. The team’s next-most
productive 2019-20 forward, Alex Iafallo, also qualifies as an automatic—he may
not be a long-term King, but at $2.425 million for next season before he
reaches free agency, he is a prime trade deadline candidate. Aside from
Kopitar, who is still in the general vicinity of his peak powers, the Kings
have two post-prime forwards on too high of contracts, and while Jeff Carter is
somewhat expendable from a sentimental perspective, the man who hoisted two
Cups as team captain, Dustin Brown, would be a tough emotional hit, hence his
protection (and if the Kraken were inclined to select Dustin Brown, there
probably isn’t a ton stopping them from picking Carter). With the remaining
selections, the Kings go for four decent-to-upsidey guys in their early-to-mid
twenties with no fewer than two years of (low) cost certainty.
With the fourth pick in the
2020 NHL Expansion Draft, the Seattle Kraken select Trevor Moore, winger from
the Los Angeles Kings.
Rather
than going the splashier routes of selecting Jonathan Quick or Jeff Carter, the
Kings went the lower-cost route by selecting Moore, a 25 year-old coming off
his first season spent primarily in the NHL. After beginning the 2019-20 season
with the Toronto Maple Leafs, Lewis scored a total of six goals in 42 NHL games
last season, and with a 2020-21 price tag of just $775,000, he could serve as a
useful bottom six forward—if he was able to serve in this capacity for a
playoff team in Toronto, it’s a reasonable expectation of him in Seattle.
Anaheim Ducks
Goalie: John Gibson
Defensemen: Christian Djoos, Cam Fowler,
Hampus Lindholm
Forwards: Ryan Getzlaf, Danton Heinen,
Adam Henrique, Ryan Kesler, Rickard Rakell, Jakob Silfverberg, Troy Terry
John
Gibson is a painfully obvious protect—he is among the best handful of goalies
in the NHL and he makes just $6.4 million over the next seven seasons. He is
the single strongest trade asset the Ducks have, not to mention a candidate to
still be very valuable when the Ducks are competitive again. Defensively, Cam
Fowler is far and away the best defenseman on the roster; at $6.5 million for
six years, he isn’t quite a Gibsonian bargain, but he is still quite valuable.
Hampus Lindholm follows similar logic—since he is only under contract for two
more years, he might not be on the next good Ducks team, but he has trade
value. For the third protected defensemen, the Ducks choose Christian Djoos,
who only played in nine games for the Ducks but won a Stanley Cup in Washington
and has proven capable of handling second-pairing minutes at a price of just $1
million next season.
The Ducks’
forward group includes two no-move clauses. One of them belongs to Ryan
Getzlaf, who is a tad overpaid at $8.25 million, but it’s only for one year and
he is still a viable, if post-prime, player. The other, Ryan Kesler, is a
disastrous albatross, having not played in 2019-20 and not having been good
since 2016-17 but being owed $6.875 million for each of the next two seasons. From
there, the Ducks are still able to protect their #1, #2, and #4 (Getzlaf is #3)
scorer from last season in Henrique, Rakell, and Silfverberg—only Rakell could
be reasonably dubbed a bargain at under $4 million, but 20+ goal scorers at or
before thirty are not easy to let go easily. Danton Heinen, acquired from the
Bruins during last season, has been a double-digit goal scorer with more
assists in each of the last three seasons who still has a remaining RFA season
after next. With their final protect, the Ducks opt for Troy Terry, on a
team-friendly $1.45 million per the next three seasons contract and just turned
twenty-three earlier this month.
With the fifth pick in the
2020 NHL Expansion Draft, the Seattle Kraken select Sonny Milano, winger from
the Anaheim Ducks.
At $1.7
million, Milano isn’t free, but for two years of service for a guy who is
twenty-four years old, the Kraken are hoping to find a breakout candidate. And
Milano, who has spent most of his career with the Columbus Blue Jackets, has
flirted with breakout seasons. In his nine games with Anaheim, Milano scored a
pair of goals and assisted on three more, and two seasons ago, he scored 14.
And the Kraken get him for two more seasons before he continued into restricted
free agency.
New Jersey Devils
Goalie: Mackenzie Blackwood
Defensemen: Will Butcher, Mirco Mueller,
Damon Severson
Forwards: Jesper Bratt, Nikita Gusev,
Nico Hischier, Kyle Palmieri, Brett Seney, Miles Wood, Pavel Zacha
When your
starting goalie is a 23 year-old who is still an RFA and your backup goalie is
making $6 million for the next two seasons, the choice to leave Cory Schneider
exposed isn’t really much of a choice. On the blue line, the team’s most famous
defenseman, P.K. Subban, doesn’t make the cut, given his rapidly declining
production and $9 million price tag. Damon Severson, a first-pairing
defenseman, makes less than half as much and is just 26. While Will Butcher
hasn’t quite replicated his Calder candidate 2017-18, he has been reasonably
productive at an excusable $3.73 million price. And although Mirco Mueller has
been generally disappointing in the NHL, only reaching double-digit points one
time, his RFA status and relative youth at 25 makes him still something of a
prospect.
The Devils
do have a somewhat more intriguing crop of forwards to protect (Jack Hughes,
the 2019 #1 overall pick, is not yet eligible). Jesper Bratt, barely 22 and
coming off a season with 16 goals and 16 assists, is an automatic—he made less
than a quarter-million last season. Kyle Palmieri, a star-level talent who is
easy to underrate because of the obscurity of his team, makes less than $5
million a year, and is an automatic as well. Nico Hischier was a bit
underwhelming last season, but a freshly extended #1 overall pick who is still
just 21 is too intoxicating to resist. Rather than trying to preserve franchise
stalwart Travis Zajac, the Devils instead opt for Nikita Gusev, who scored 44
points in his first NHL season, and a trio of under-25 forwards still in the
RFA stages in Seney, Wood, and Zacha.
With the sixth pick in the
2020 NHL Expansion Draft, the Seattle Kraken select Connor Carrick, defenseman
from the New Jersey Devils.
At $1.5
million for the next season, Carrick is a lightning-in-a-bottle pick. He had
some solid if unspectacular seasons in Toronto before a brief stint in Dallas,
followed by his move to New Jersey. He’s probably a bottom pairing defenseman
at best, but Carrick has logged 230 NHL games and doesn’t cost an arm and a
leg, so there are some virtues to this as a lottery pick, as he’s almost a free
agent anyway.
Buffalo Sabres
Goalie: Linus Ullmark
Defensemen: Jake McCabe, Brandon
Montour, Rasmus Ristolainen
Forwards: Jack Eichel, Curtis Lazar,
Casey Mittelstadt, Sam Reinhart, Jeff Skinner, Eric Staal, Tage Thompson
Buffalo
isn’t the worst team in the NHL, but they do have the weakest crop of exposed
players in this expansion draft. Linus Ullmark is the goalie choice over Carter
Hutton because he’s younger and cheaper and probably better, and if Buffalo
loses Hutton, it’s not a devastating absence. Defensively, with Rasmus Dahlin
and Henri Jokiharju not yet eligible, the team is able to essentially protect
its entire defensive corps, with the one exception being Colin Miller, who
makes $3.875 million over the next two years and probably qualifies as
overpaid, anyway.
Two of the
best, conservatively, six forwards on the Sabres are not yet draft-eligible, so
they need not concern themselves with Dominik Kahun nor Victor Olofsson. Jack
Eichel, well-compensated in eight figures though he may be, is far too elite of
a player to not protect, and Sam Reinhart is a bargain at $3.65 million while still
in the RFA cycle. Jeff Skinner is wildly overpaid at $9 million for the next
seven years, but a no-move clause means Buffalo is stuck with him. Veteran Eric
Staal, the recent addition from Minnesota, only has one year remaining on his
contract, but he figures to be one of the better forwards on the team, and at
just $3.25 million, he could be act as a trade chip if they fall out of
contention. Aside from these four, most of the remaining Sabres forwards are
pending UFAs—only two forwards who played in the NHL in 2019-20 are actually
draft eligible.
With the seventh pick in the
2020 NHL Expansion Draft, the Seattle Kraken select Jean-Sebastien Dea, center
from the Buffalo Sabres.
Dea only
has played in 32 NHL games, three with the Sabres (all last year). He had a
decent but unspectacular year with the AHL’s Rochester Americans. But he isn’t
risky. He’s a 26 year-old who will make $700,000 next year before reaching free
agency. Maybe he becomes a rotational forward, and compared to taking on the
$18 million due over the next three years to Kyle Okposo, there isn’t a lot of
downside. Maybe you are setting $700,000 on fire, but this is pocket change in
the grand scheme of things.
Montreal Canadiens
Goalie: Carey Price
Defensemen: Ben Chiarot, Victor Mete,
Jeff Petry
Forwards: Joel Armia, Phillip Danault,
Max Domi, Jonathan Drouin, Brendan Gallagher, Artturi Lehkonen, Tomas Tatar
It can be
argued that no team is hurt more by the sudden nature of the Seattle Kraken
expansion draft than the Canadiens. They are weeks removed from trading for
backup goalie Jake Allen, a player they are contractually obligated to leave
unprotected because of Carey Price’s no-move clause (not that Price wouldn’t
have been protected anyway). Defensively, they are obligated to protect Jeff
Petry, whose no-move wouldn’t have been obstructive under the original
expansion plan, as his contract ends after next season. Their other two
defensive protections are strong—Chiarot, who logged over 23 minutes per game
last season, and Mete, a 22 year-old who is just now entering restricted free
agency and is already a viable part of the Canadiens defensive rotation. But
this leaves two notable players exposed (three if you count Karl Alzner, who
you should not)—Joel Edmundson, who just agreed to a 4-year contract worth $14
million earlier in the day, and even more noticeably, captain Shea Weber, a
future Hall of Fame candidate who remains firmly above-average, though at over
$7.85 million for each of the next six seasons.
The
forward group does not need to include Nick Suzuki nor Jesperi Kotkaniemi,
which is a definite plus. Among those that actually do need to be protected,
Tomas Tatar was nearly a point-a-game player last season, and although he’s a
year away from free agency, his $4.8 million price tag would make him an easy
pick for Seattle. Similar logic follows for a handful of other Montreal
forwards on one-year deals in Armia, Danault, and Gallagher. Max Domi is widely
rumored to be a trade chip, and since he is a player who may generate a strong
return, protecting him would be the smart play. Jonathan Drouin had a letdown
season in 2019-20, in which he played in only 27 games, but the former third
overall pick is still only 25. With their final forward spot, the Canadiens opt
to protect Lehkonen, making $2.4 million and still with multiple years of club
control remaining, and with double-digit goals in all four of his NHL seasons.
With the eighth pick in the
2020 NHL Expansion Draft, the Seattle Kraken select Shea Weber, defenseman from
the Montreal Canadiens.
After
seven relatively safe picks where the Kraken opted for guys who strictly obey
the Hippocratic oath, the Canadiens select arguably the biggest name available
to them. Guys of Weber’s caliber don’t come around too often, and even if
$7,857,143 is a bit high for Weber, particularly on the back end of the
contract, this is a team that will surely have cap room in the early years. The
Kraken have an opportunity at a star, a marketable player, and a team captain
all in one move. And the Canadiens get him off their books at a point where the
P.K. Subban trade looks like an unexpected win for them. In a lot of ways, this
is a win-win situation.
Chicago Blackhawks
Goalie: Malcolm Subban
Defensemen: Duncan Keith, Connor Murphy,
Brent Seabrook
Forwards: Drake Caggiula, Alex
DeBrincat, Patrick Kane, Alexander Nylander, Brandon Saad, Dylan Strome,
Jonathan Toews
The Chicago Blackhawks have four no-move clauses on their
books, but this doesn’t have much in terms of practical implications. The
goalie, Malcolm Subban, is really just a bonus, as starter Corey Crawford is
scheduled for unrestricted free agency (it is very unlikely that Subban is the
regular starter for the Blackhawks next season). Two of the three protection
slots are reserved for Duncan Keith, who is a little overpaid ($5,538,462 per
year for the next three), and Brent Seabrook, who might have the most
team-destructive contract in the NHL ($6.875 million for the next four years
and he is occasionally a healthy scratch). Adam Boqvist isn’t yet eligible, and
Olli Maatta and especially Calvin de Haan qualify as overpaid, so Connor
Murphy, a solid defenseman who makes less than $4 million per year, is
protected.
Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews and their combined $21
million annual salaries are no-move protected, though neither is a truly
horrible contract (though if they had the chance, the Blackhawks probably
wouldn’t mind letting Toews go). Dominik Kubalik is not eligible, but young
flashy wingers Alex DeBrincat and Alexander Nylander are, and they are
no-brainers. Dylan Strome has successfully rehabilitated what was already being
anointed as bust status and is protected, as well. The next two picks come from
different schools of thought—Saad makes $6 million but is among the team’s most
prolific scorers, and Caggiula isn’t really a star, but considering he is still
in the RFA stages, he is one of the handful of Blackhawks players who isn’t
expensive.
With the ninth pick in the
2020 NHL Expansion Draft, the Seattle Kraken select Slater Koekkoek, defenseman
from the Chicago Blackhawks.
There were
more NHL-established options out there for the Kraken, but instead they go with
a young-ish defenseman (26) just now exiting his entry-level contract. He isn’t
a high-volume scorer, but he has played solid defense, is above-average in
terms of puck possession, and is fairly low-risk. He is being selected with
hopes that he can compete to be an inexpensive bottom pairing option.
Arizona Coyotes
Goalie: Darcy Kuemper
Defensemen: Jakob Chychrun, Oliver
Ekman-Larsson, Niklas Hjalmarsson
Forwards: Lawson Crouse, Christian
Dvorak, Conor Garland, Marian Hossa, Clayton Keller, Phil Kessel, Nick Schmaltz
In
2019-20, the Coyotes deployed two goalies in roughly equal measure, but in this
case, they protect the younger, better, and longer-contracted Darcy Kuemper
over Antti Raanta. Defensively, the Coyotes have two must-protects in
Ekman-Larsson (fine) and Hjalmarsson (less fine, but least he only has a year
left). The remaining defensemen are largely older guys on short contracts with
the exception of Chychrun, a 22 year-old coming off his best NHL season who was
seventh on the team in goals despite the notable handicap of playing on the
blue line.
The Coyotes are obligated to protect two forwards—Phil
Kessel, coming off his worst season since his teens, but at least an active NHL
player, which is more than can be said of Marian Hossa, whose contract was
traded to Arizona in 2018 after he was de-facto retired but has never played
for the Coyotes (also, he’s in the Hall of Fame). Among their elective
forwards, notables such as Taylor Hall and Carl Soderberg are already heading
to free agency, so they can stick with under-25 forwards under club control
like Crouse and Garland. And while Dvorak, Keller, and Schmaltz are all under
more year-heavy contracts, they are all still under the age of 25 and have
their primes ahead of them.
With the tenth pick in the
2020 NHL Expansion Draft, the Seattle Kraken select Alex Goligoski, defenseman
from the Arizona Coyotes.
Two picks
after selecting Shea Weber, the Kraken select Goligoski, a veteran who can
either stand tall with Weber on the top blue line or solidify the team’s second
pairing. He only has one year remaining on his contract, so his 35 years of age
are less of a risk than Weber’s, and Goligoski led Coyotes defensemen last year
in points, acting as a valued power play specialist. If the Kraken go on a
2017-18 Vegas-like run, Goligoski can be a major part of that; if they
struggle, he could be dangled to contenders at the trade deadline.
Minnesota Wild
Goalie: Alex Stalock
Defensemen: Jonas Brodin, Mathew Dumba,
Jared Spurgeon, Ryan Suter
Forwards: Kevin Fiala, Luke Kunin,
Zach Parise, Mats Zuccarello
The Wild
have the shortest protection list yet, having opted to protect four defensemen,
therefore exposing three additional forwards to the draft. This may seem
counter-intuitive, but it really comes down to whether the team values its #4
defenseman or its #5 forward more. In the case of the Wild, they have three
defensemen with no-moves (and would have for an expansion draft next year
too—Brodin, Spurgeon, Suter) and have a formidable two-way defenseman in Dumba
otherwise exposed. As far as goalie was concerned, the Wild are probably
itching for the Kraken to just go ahead and taken Devan Dubnyk, who had an
awful 2019-20 and was largely usurped in the starting role by Stalock, also a
veteran but somebody who outperformed Dubnyk last season and also will only
make $785,000 for the next two seasons.
The Wild are prohibited by no-moves in the forward group as
well, with two additional no-moves (that still would be no-moves next year) in
high-priced veterans Zach Parise and Mats Zuccarello. Among the team’s
remaining players to protect, Kevin Fiala is a no-brainer—he led last year’s
Wild in points and was second in goals, is barely 24, and is only slated to
make $3 million next year while still a restricted free agent. For their final
protect, the Wild opt for Luke Kunin, who scored 15 goals and 31 points last
season at age 22 and is just now entering his RFA years.
With the eleventh pick in the
2020 NHL Expansion Draft, the Seattle Kraken select Ryan Donato, center from
the Minnesota Wild.
This is
the cost of the Wild giving out no-move clauses like candy—the loss of Donato,
who scored 14 goals in his age-23 season last year (he is now 24). Donato will
make under $2 million next season and continue through the RFA cycle while
potentially contending for top six forward minutes, particularly in future
seasons.
Winnipeg Jets
Goalie: Connor Hellebuyck
Defensemen: Josh Morrissey, Neal Pionk, Tucker
Poolman
Forwards: Kyle Connor, Andrew Copp, Nikolaj Ehlers,
Patrik Laine, Jack Roslovic, Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler
Hellebuyck, a Vezina-level goalie in 2019-20 who will make
just over $6 million for each of the next four years, is an obvious protect,
and Neal Pionk fits into that category as well, as he was easily the team’s
most productive defenseman last season and he is a 25 year-old with years of
cost control remaining. Josh Morrissey is still young and has seven years
remaining on his “I’ll take a lower AAV if you get me paid before I reach free
agency” contract; I was going to throw in an obligatory bad Smiths pun in
reference to him, but That Joke Isn’t Funny Anymore. The third defense slot
goes to Tucker Poolman, less of a star than the other two but somebody making
just $775,000 next season who was the third-best defenseman on the Jets in
2019-20.
The Jets’ only NMC belongs to Blake Wheeler, who is highly
paid and probably a touch past his prime, but he is still their nearly
point-per-game captain, so he is hardly an indefensible player to keep. The
Jets had two point-per-game forwards in Connor and Scheifele, both of whom are
under long-term value contracts. Nikolaj Ehlers is under a slightly cheaper
contract, at $6 million for the next half-decade, but this is a solid value for
the Jets, as he scored 25 goals and 58 points last season and he is currently
just 24 years old. Patrik Laine hasn’t quite become the Ovechkin-level goal
threat he was acclaimed to be in his first two seasons, but he still scored 28
goals and 35 assists last year and is still just 22—the Jets may not be able to
keep him long-term, but they’re going to certainly get more value out of him
than losing him to Seattle. The next two forwards are less obvious but still
fairly clear, as Copp and Roslovic are the only two remaining double-digit goal
scorers and still in the RFA stages. These protections allow the Jets to
maintain their offensive core.
With the twelfth pick in the
2020 NHL Expansion Draft, the Seattle Kraken select Carl Dahlstrom, defenseman
from the Winnipeg Jets.
It’s a bit
of a step down from Goligoski and Donato in terms of exciting players Seattle
drafts, but they do have a salary cap with which to comply. The former
second-round pick is a 25 year-old rock of a defenseman who has never scored an
NHL goal but has shown capable of playing second-pairing minutes, if not at a
second-pairing level, and most relevantly, he still has another year remaining
on his entry level contract.
Calgary Flames
Goalie: David Rittich
Defensemen: Rasmus Andersson, Mark
Giordano, Noah Hanifin
Forwards: Mikael Backlund, Johnny
Gaudreau, Elias Lindholm, Milan Lucic, Andrew Mangiapane, Sean Monahan, Matthew
Tkachuk
With Cam
Talbot as an impending UFA, there is little debate as to which NHL goalie to
protect—the younger, probably better one making $2.75 million against the cap.
Defensively, most of the NHL crop are pending free agents, and only four
players who even played in the NHL last season are draft eligible. Thus the
Flames protect 2018-19 Norris winner Giordano and a pair of young, extended
defensemen in Andersson and Hanifin, with the one exposed goalie being Oliver
Kylington, who is young and cheap but also has a career NHL high of eight
points—they’d probably prefer he not be selected, but it’s not a pressing
matter.
The
Flames’ only obligated protect is for Milan Lucic, who had a little bit of a
bounce-back season in 2019-20 but whom they certainly would prefer to expose
(he is still owed $5.25 million for the next three seasons). Much happier
protects come in the form of their four young star-level forwards Gaudreau (the
elder statesman of the group, who just turned 27), Lindholm, Monahan, and
Tkachuk, the four leading scorers by goals and points last season. Mikael
Backlund, on the wrong side of 30 and with a not-immaterial cap hit of $5.35
million for the next four years, isn’t quite an automatic, but he is still a
consistent two-way forward who has received Selke votes in each of the last
four seasons and has cleared 45 points in each of the last five. And Andrew
Mangiapane, fresh off a breakout season with 17 goals and 32 points, is an easy
call—he is just 24 and only now entering restricted free agency.
With the thirteenth pick in
the 2020 NHL Expansion Draft, the Seattle Kraken select Sam Bennett, center
from the Calgary Flames.
A few
years ago, the Flames leaving Sam Bennett exposed would have seemed
inconceivable. The fourth overall pick in the 2014 draft, Bennett (who is still
just 24, mind you) looked poised for superstardom when he tallied 18 goals as a
teenager in 2015-16, but his production has stalled, and he scored just 12
total points last year. At $2.55 million for next season, this is a little bit
of a gamble, though since Bennett has established himself as a solid defensive
forward, his floor is probably as a fourth liner, which isn’t ideal for a
player with that cap hit, but it’s not a total disaster considering NHL teams
probably still view Bennett as a guy with untapped potential.
New York Rangers
Goalie: Henrik Lundqvist
Defensemen: Anthony DeAngelo, Marc
Staal, Jacob Trouba
Forwards: Pavel Buchnevich, Filip
Chytil, Chris Kreider, Brendan Lemieux, Artemi Panarin, Ryan Strome, Mika
Zibanejad
The
Rangers are contractually obligated to protect Lundqvist, which is tough beat
for them, as Alexandar Georgiev, who is 14 years younger and far cheaper, now
must be exposed. Defensively, the Rangers also are hamstrung by NMCs—Jacob
Trouba (who they would have protected anyway) and Marc Staal (who isn’t a
disaster but certainly is expendable, and whose contract expires after this
season) are automatics, and although Adam Fox is thankfully not yet eligible,
the Rangers have to choose between Anthony DeAngelo and Ryan Lindgren. While
Lindgren is younger and cheaper for longer, DeAngelo is the more proven
commodity, having tallied 15 goals and 38 assists in 2019-20. There is a case
that the Rangers should protect four defensemen, but they also might prefer the
Kraken select Lindgren than Georgiev or their fifth-best forward.
The Rangers’
forward group is includes three players with no-moves, but all three would have
been protected anyway—Kreider, Panarin (who somehow looks like a bargain even
after having signed a huge contract last off-season), and Zibanejad. The next
obvious cases are Buchnevich and Strome, top-five scorers on the Rangers last
season who are still in the RFA years. Filip Chytil isn’t quite yet a star, but
a center who is barely of legal drinking age who has scored double-digit goals
in each of the last two seasons is an asset worth having. And while Brendan
Lemieux isn’t as obvious of a player to protect as the others, he has been a
decent bottom-six forward who is still young and just coming off his ELC—given
that Kaapo Kakko is not eligible, the remaining forward protection options are
a bit thin.
With the fourteenth pick in
the 2020 NHL Expansion Draft, the Seattle Kraken select Ryan Lindgren,
defenseman from the New York Rangers.
Realistically,
this was a least-bad situation for the Rangers. Although he had a productive
rookie season, Lindgren’s value is mostly defensive and, to this point, not as
quantifiable as Georgiev. And the Rangers are still able to keep four
defensemen who are certainly worthy of being called top-four defensemen. And
for the Kraken, they get a 22 year-old who still has a year remaining on his
entry level contract who could easily take form as a defensive stalwart for the
next many years.
Nashville Predators
Goalie: Pekka Rinne
Defensemen: Mattias Ekholm, Ryan Ellis,
Roman Josi
Forwards: Viktor Arvidsson, Matt
Duchene, Filip Forsberg, Rocco Grimaldi, Calle Jarnkrok, Colton Sissons, Austin
Watson
Pekka
Rinne’s no-move clause could come back to haunt the Predators. It’s not that
Rinne is bad or even overpaid, though his 2019-20 season didn’t exactly inspire
confidence—it’s that Juuse Saros, 25, is cheaper and younger and, at this
point, probably better. Defensively, the Roman Josi no-move isn’t exactly
prohibitive—he’s well-paid but he’s also one of the best defensemen in the
league. Ryan Ellis and Mattias Ekholm continue to be strong two-way blue-liners
who have a combined price tag of $10 million. Given that Dante Fabbro isn’t
draft-eligible and the next three notable defensemen are pending free agents,
the three to protect are rather obvious—if the Kraken want to make a run at
Jarred Tinordi or Steven Santini, so be it.
On the
forward front, Nashville is more than willing to dangle a handful of
highly-paid forwards, including Ryan Johansen, Kyle Turris, and Nick Bonino.
They could have easily thrown Duchene into this crop, but he has shown a little
bit more recent proof of concept than Johansen or especially Turris. Arvidsson
and Forsberg have lost a little bit of their luster, but even in their somewhat
diminished states, are on team-friendly contracts. Calle Jarnkrok has developed
into a consistent third-line type center for the Predators, and at just
$2,000,000 for the next two years, is a safe protect; Rocco Grimaldi hasn’t
proven himself quite as sustainably, but on an identical contract and being two
years younger, he is a similarly solid choice. Colton Sissons is coming off a
rough season, but at a jarringly low $2,857,143 price tag for the next
half-dozen seasons, he is a tremendous bargain if he bounces back to being a
30-point player. With their final protection, the Predators look to Auston
Watson, admittedly less exciting than the other forwards but on a cozy little
$1.5 million contract for the next three seasons.
With the fifteenth pick in
the 2020 NHL Expansion Draft, the Seattle Kraken select Juuse Saros, goalie
from the Nashville Predators.
This one
seemed inevitable. At a cost of just $1.5 million for next season with
remaining RFA years ahead of him, and with the talent to be a serviceable
starter for a playoff-contending NHL team, Saros is an incredible bargain for
the Kraken. He’s good enough to be a starter and cheap enough to be a very
strong backup, and if he takes another step in the right direction, he could be
a foundational piece for this franchise.
Florida Panthers
Goalie: Sergei Bobrovsky
Defensemen: Aaron Ekblad, MacKenzie
Weegar, Keith Yandle
Forwards: Noel Acciari, Aleksander
Barkov, Brett Connolly, Jonathan Huberdeau, Colton Sceviour, Frank Vatrano,
Lucas Wallmark
While the
Florida Panthers would probably like a mulligan on the signing of Bobrovsky,
who had a rough first year in Florida and is owed $10 million for each of the
next six years into his thirties, but there’s a no-move clause in place.
Defensively, their one no-move clause belongs to Keith Yandle, a less than
ideal protect, but unlike in the 2017 draft, where the Panthers’ legendarily
botched process included protecting four defensemen, they stuck to the three-D
convention here by protecting Aaron Ekblad, who has been a bit disappointing
since his Calder-winning rookie campaign following being the #1 overall draft
pick but is still decently productive and just now entering what should be his
prime, and MacKenzie Weegar, who has logged top-four defenseman minutes over
the last two seasons and still a fairly inexpensive RFA. They’d presumably like
to have kept Mike Matheson off the table, but that’s the cost of giving
no-moves to veterans.
A large
slate of Florida’s forwards are pending UFAs or not yet eligible, so the
protection list becomes relatively easy. Their two best forwards, Barkov and
Huberdeau, are automatics—both are in their primes and each makes under $6
million per year. Connolly and Vatrano qualify as lesser versions of
this—neither is to that level, but both gravitate around half a point per game
at reasonable costs. Lucas Wallmark is an ascending forward, just a hair over
25, and he is just now entering restricted free agency. Noel Acciari has become
quite the bargain, as he scored 20 goals last season and makes less than two
million dollars over the next two years. And while Colton Sceviour, over 30 and
at just 16 points last season, is noticeably less valuable, but at just $1.2
million for one year and with a general lack of other great options, this is a
valid pick.
With the sixteenth pick in
the 2020 NHL Expansion Draft, the Seattle Kraken select Chris Driedger, goalie
from the Florida Panthers.
With
Bobrovsky locked into the Panthers via his no-move clause, the Kraken select
their fourth goalie in sixteen picks with Driedger, who posted a .938 save
percentage and a 2.05 goals against average in backup duty to Bobrovsky last
season. This level of success is almost certainly not replicable, but if he can
become even a fraction of that level of player for the Kraken, he’s a 26
year-old who is only scheduled to make $850,000 next season. Along with Juuse
Saros, the Kraken are looking at a decent goaltending tandem.
Vancouver Canucks
Goalie: Thatcher Demko
Defensemen: Jordie Benn, Alexander
Edler, Troy Stecher
Forwards: Brock Boeser, Micheal
Ferland, Adam Gaudette, Bo Horvat, J.T. Miller, Tanner Pearson, Jake Virtanen
Even if
Jacob Markstrom weren’t a pending free agent, the 2020 playoffs established
Thatcher Demko as the obvious protect for the Canucks. His regular season as
backup wasn’t as good as the Canucks may have hoped, but at just a hair over a
million dollars, he would be scooped up in a heartbeat by an expansion team.
Defensively, the new franchise defenseman Quinn Hughes need not be protected,
while Alexander Edler is required to be (he would likely be protected anyway).
As for the other two, Troy Stecher is a given, at $2.325 million and a
relatively spry age of 26, and although Tyler Myers is a better player than
Jordie Benn, the latter makes just $2 million while Myers has a prohibitive
cost of $6 million for the next four years. Vancouver would surely prefer Myers
walk; they certainly aren’t going to make it easier for him to stay.
Like
Hughes on the defensive end, the Canucks have a foundational piece among their
forwards that they are not required to protect in Elias Pettersson. With J.T.
Miller coming off a career-high 27 goals and 72 points, he looks like a bargain
at $5.25 million for three years; Vancouver will jump at the chance to protect
him. Brock Boeser and Bo Horvat didn’t quite reach the J.T. Miller heights, but
given their youth and cap hits in the fives of millions, they could easily be
impact players on a championship team. Tanner Pearson only has a year remaining
on his contract, but coming off a 20 goals and assists season and at $3.75
million, he is quite valuable to have on the roster. Micheal Ferland would be a
candidate for exposure if not for a pesky little thing called a no-move clause.
For the final two spots, Adam Gaudette and Jake Virtanen, just under and just
over 24 respectively, are half-point-a-game type players who make well under
their market value.
With the seventeenth pick in
the 2020 NHL Expansion Draft, the Seattle Kraken select Zack MacEwen, center
from the Vancouver Canucks.
The
Canucks exposed quite a few high-priced veteran forwards, but instead, the
Kraken opted for a pending RFA who made six figures last season in MacEwen. He
hasn’t played a ton in the NHL, with 21 career games, but in his 17 games last
season, he scored five goals and played his way onto the playoff roster. And at
just 24, he could be a player growing into a prominent NHL role.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Goalie: Joonas Korpisalo
Defensemen: Seth Jones, Markus
Nutivaara, Zach Werenski
Forwards: Josh Anderson, Cam Atkinson, Oliver
Bjorkstrand, Brandon Dubinsky, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Nick Foligno, Gustav Nyquist
The Blue
Jackets had tandem goaltenders for most of the season, and although Elvis
Merzlikins had the superior statistics, Korpisalo got the bulk of playoff
starts, where he played lights-out, and he is cheaper. Defensively, there are a
clear top three defensemen—two of them, Jones and Werenski, get protected,
while Vladislav Gavrikov is not yet eligible. David Savard and Ryan Murray
remain useful defensemen, but at over $4 million cap hits with just a year
remaining on each’s contract, Nutivaara is the younger, cheaper equivalent,
with a $2.7 million cap hit for the next two years.
Forward-wise,
the Blue Jackets have two no-move clauses to work around. One, for Nick
Foligno, is manageable if not quite ideal, while the other belongs to Brandon
Dubinsky, who didn’t play at all last season due to injuries. Bjorkstrand was
the team’s leading goal scorer last season, and at just $2.5 million for next
season, the 25 year-old is an obvious call. The team’s two leading scorers by
points, Dubois and Nyquist, are also strong protection candidates—Dubois is
just now entering restricted free agency and while Nyquist, at $5.5 million,
isn’t quite that level of bargain, is still a productive player. While Cam
Atkinson was uncharacteristically afflicted with injuries and poor play last
season, his upside more than excuses his $5.875 million price tag. For the
team’s final protection slot, they opt for Josh Anderson, who had an awful
2019-20, with just four points in 26 games, but the season before, he tallied
27 goals; if he can replicate that, his $1.85 million price tag last season
would have been a bargain.
With the eighteenth pick in
the 2020 NHL Expansion Draft, the Seattle Kraken select Eric Robinson, winger
from the Columbus Blue Jackets.
Robinson,
25, is on a very team-friendly contract, with his $975,000 salary locked in for
the next two seasons. He isn’t a star, but Robinson was a serviceable two-way
winger last season and could work out as a rotational forward for the Seattle
Kraken.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Goalie: Frederik Andersen
Defensemen: Travis Dermott, Jake Muzzin,
Morgan Rielly
Forwards: Pierre Engvall, Zach Hyman,
Alexander Kerfoot, Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews, William Nylander, John
Tavares
As much as
Frederik Andersen has been subject to criticism and trade rumors, he is still
generally regarded as an above-average goalie, and even if he only has a year
left under contract, $5 million for a true starting goalie when your
alternative is Jack Campbell, who has had his moments but is far more of
question mark, would be quite the gamble. And defensively, there really isn’t
much of a choice. There’s Jake Muzzin, who has a no-move clause. The
much-maligned Tyson Barrie and the even more maligned Cody Ceci are both
pending UFAs. Morgan Rielly had a somewhat down 2019-20 but has flashed elite
talent and costs just $5 million for each of the next two years, while Travis
Dermott, who is only 23 and cheap for the next few years, has become a
dependable force on the defensive end.
Forwards
are the highlight of the Maple Leafs, but only one—Tavares—has no-move
protection. Despite their hefty, eight-figure price tags, Auston Matthews and
Mitch Marner are safe protections—the pair of twenty-three-year-olds are both
elite offensive stars. William Nylander, at less than $7 million annually,
might be the greatest bargain of the lot. Although Zach Hyman doesn’t likely
fit into the team’s long-term plans, a $2.25 million salary for a guy who
scored 37 points in 51 games last season is far too valuable to omit. While
Alexander Kerfoot was a tad underwhelming in his first season in Toronto, his
prior seasons in Colorado suggested that his $3.5 million salary over the next
three seasons could wind up being a bargain. And while Pierre Engvall isn’t
nearly the star of some of the other protected forwards, having scored 15
points in 48 games in his rookie season, he comes with the benefit of
relatively cheap cost certainty—he will make $1.25 million for each of the next
two seasons before reaching RFA status.
With the nineteenth pick in
the 2020 NHL Expansion Draft, the Seattle Kraken select Justin Holl, defenseman
from the Toronto Maple Leafs.
After
playing primarily in the minor leagues in his professional career before last
season, Holl was a revelation for Toronto in 2019-20, scoring 18 points and
establishing himself as the team’s top stay-at-home defenseman by Point Shares.
Holl certainly seems equipped to play for the Kraken, and his $2 million price
tag for each of the next three years could make him a part of the team’s
foundation if he is able to keep up his 2019-20 performance.
Edmonton Oilers
Goalie: Mikko Koskinen
Defensemen: Oscar Klefbom, Darnell
Nurse, Kris Russell
Forwards: Andreas Athanasiou, Alex
Chiasson, Leon Draisaitl, Zack Kassian, Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins,
Kailer Yamamoto
Although
not quite a star, Mikko Koskinen has been a solid goaltender for the Oilers for
the last two seasons, and being on the hook for $4.5 million for the next two
seasons is hardly a massive liability. On the defensive end, the Oilers are
hamstrung by Kris Russell’s no-move clause; while his $4 million price tag for
one more year isn’t an albatross, it’s safe to say they’d rather use protection
on somebody other than a guy that recorded zero goals and nine assists in 55
games last season. Klefbom and Nurse are, by a fairly large margin, the two
best defensemen on the Oilers, and while $4.167 and $5.6 million cap hits
aren’t bargains, they also aren’t going to be a thing to hold the Oilers back;
they could also get $4 million-plus in cap relief if one of Adam Larsson is
selected instead.
The Oilers
are mostly noted for their high-end offensive talent, and while neither McDavid
nor Draisaitl have no-moves, they might as well for the purposes of this
exercise. To a lesser extent, the same applies to Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, who is a
potential trade chip for the Oilers and is regarded as something of a lesser #1
overall pick, but he is without question a valuable player who is well worth
his $6 million salary. Yamamoto is a very obvious protect—he scored nearly a
point per game in the NHL last season and is still on his entry-level contract
for another year. The remaining forwards are mid-level players who are at or
perhaps slightly past their peaks in Athanasiou, Chiasson, and Kassian, but if
the Oilers ever want to win anything with the McDavid/Draisaitl core, they are
going to need players like these to shoulder some of the load as well.
With the twentieth pick in
the 2020 NHL Expansion Draft, the Seattle Kraken select Ethan Bear, defenseman
from the Edmonton Oilers.
Not unlike
their previous selection, the Kraken are counting on a guy coming seemingly out
of nowhere and having an awesome previous season being for real. Though in this
case, there is even less risk for Seattle, as Ethan Bear is merely a first-year
RFA who is going year-to-year with the Oilers. Last season, Bear (who was 22
and is now 23) was third on the team among defensemen in scoring, behind
Klefbom and Nurse, averaging nearly 22 minutes per game. He is also a tidy
sentimental pick, as a former Seattle Thunderbirds player in the Western Hockey
League.
New York Islanders
Goalie: Semyon Varlamov
Defensemen: Scott Mayfield, Ryan Pulock,
Devon Toews
Forwards: Josh Bailey, Mathew Barzal,
Anthony Beauvillier, Jordan Eberle, Anders Lee, Brock Nelson, Jean-Gabriel
Pageau
Semyon
Varlamov has had an up-or-down last few years, but given his role in getting
the Islanders to the conference finals this year, his $5 million cap hit for
the next three years seems fairly moderate. On the defensive end, Pulock and
Toews are extraordinarily easy protects—Pulock has become a quietly elite
defenseman over the last two seasons and only made $2 million last season and
is still a restricted free agent, while Toews is only now entering RFA status
after having ascended into a top defenseman. The third is only marginally
harder, as Scott Mayfield has become a formidable defensive defenseman and is
under a very team-friendly $1.45 million cost for the next three years.
The
forward group almost goes without saying—these were the seven best forwards on
the Islanders last season by Hockey Reference Point Shares, none of them lay an
especially credible claim to being particularly overpaid, and this frees the
possibility that the Kraken will covet Veteran Presence and select somebody
like Andrew Ladd or (perhaps more realistically) Leo Komarov or Cal
Clutterbuck.
With the twenty-first pick in
the 2020 NHL Expansion Draft, the Seattle Kraken select Adam Pelech, defenseman
from the New York Islanders.
Adam Pelech had a rough season offensively, scoring only
nine points in 38 games. But his defensive value was still there, and he
trailed only Ryan Pulock by average time on ice among Islanders skaters this
season. Pelech is a valued penalty killer and comes at a price tag of only $1.6
million for next season before his continued restricted free agency. Whether he
becomes a trusted two-way defenseman is an open question, but even if his
primary function is as a penalty killing specialist, the Kraken could do a lot
worse.
Dallas Stars
Goalie: Ben Bishop
Defensemen: Taylor Fedun, John Klingberg, Esa Lindell
Forwards: Jamie Benn, Jason Dickinson, Denis
Gurianov, Roope Hintz, Joe Pavelski, Alexander Radulov, Tyler Seguin
Ben Bishop’s no-move clause makes any goalie discussion
moot, though given his sub-$5 million cap hit for the next three years from a
Vezina finalist in 2018-19, his level of player alone makes it moot.
Defensively, the Stars have the luxury of not having to protect Miro Heiskanen
just yet. They can instead protect their two best non-Heiskanen defensemen,
Klingberg and Lindell, and protect another one just for fun. There is a case
for protecting Jamie Oleksiak, but given that Taylor Fedun is on a mere
six-figure deal and would make all the sense in the world for Seattle to nab,
Fedun gets the honors.
Four forwards on the Dallas Stars have no-move clauses, so
there isn’t much work for them to do here—Benn, Pavelski, Radulov, and Seguin
are off the table (and would have been next summer as well). Roope Hintz and
Denis Gurianov are probably next best forwards on the team and both are just
entering restricted free agency, making them obvious protects for the Stars. And
although he is less obvious than the first six, it’s hard to argue too
vehemently against Jason Dickinson, who outscored any unprotected forwards this
season, is entering his age-25 season, and is slated to make a moderate $1.5
million next season.
With the twenty-second pick
in the 2020 NHL Expansion Draft, the Seattle Kraken select Radek Faksa, center
from the Dallas Stars.
Although Faksa’s 11 goals and 20 total points last season
were his lowest marks since his rookie season in 2015-16, the Czech center has
exhibited a tempting repartee for the Kraken in his NHL career. A two-time
Selke voter recipient, Faksa is certainly capable of playing and making a dent
on the expansion team, particularly as his $2.2 million price tag in 2019-20
doesn’t suggest he is going to be a particularly expensive player following a
down season.
Carolina Hurricanes
Goalie: Petr Mrazek
Defensemen: Dougie Hamilton, Brett Pesce, Jaccob
Slavin
Forwards: Sebastian Aho, Warren Foegele, Martin
Necas, Nino Niederreiter, Jordan Staal, Teuvo Teravainen, Vincent Trocheck
The bulk of Carolina’s goaltending last year was conducted
by Petr Mrazek or James Reimer, and between the two, there isn’t really much of
a choice—Mrazek is younger, better, and cheaper. Defensively, the biggest
question arguably was whether to protect four players, as this was the definite
strength of the Hurricanes last year. Really solid defensemen such as Jake
Gardiner and Brady Skjei were unable to be protected because of the presence of
Hamilton, the best overall defenseman on the team, Pesce, perhaps the most
envious contract among the Hurricanes defensive core from a team perspective
with a $4.025 million cap hit for the next four years, and Slavin, whose $5.3
million cost for the next five seasons is a bargain if he can continue to play
like a top pairing defenseman.
With Andrei Svechnikov tenure-protected, the fact that the
Hurricanes are using a NMC on Jordan Staal feels a bit more palatable.
Sebastian Aho, who led the Hurricanes in goals and points, is an easy choice—he
may not quite be to, say, the Connor McDavid tier of offensive superweapon, but
he is more or less a blank-check worthy player—his $8.454 million for four year
price tag given that he is only 23 is quite reasonable. Teuvo Teravainen, has
become an assist-heavy wizard since joining the Hurricanes, and at $5.4 million
for the next four years, that’s quite the treat. Niederreiter and Trocheck are
second-tier stars by comparison, but each has flashed excellence, and their
contracts are reasonable for a team that views itself as a legitimate
contender. Luckily for the Hurricanes, their next two protects go to Foegele,
who is just now entering his RFA years, and Martin Necas, who still has two
more years of an entry-level contract following a 36-point season in 2019-20.
With the twenty-third pick in
the 2020 NHL Expansion Draft, the Seattle Kraken select Haydn Fleury,
defenseman from the Carolina Hurricanes.
Everyone knows that if you want your expansion team to be
successful, you need to draft a guy with the last name Fleury. In this case, it
is a 24 year-old defenseman who is six years removed from being a #7 overall
pick. Although he hasn’t quite lived up to that hype, Fleury did tally 14
points with good possession numbers last season, and given his $850,000 tag
last season, he should be a low-cost solution for the Kraken.
Vegas Golden Knights
Goalie: Marc-Andre Fleury
Defensemen: Nicolas Hague, Nate Schmidt, Shea
Theodore
Forwards: William Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault, Max
Pacioretty, Reilly Smith, Chandler Stephenson, Mark Stone, Alex Tuch
Vegas is in a precarious situation with regards to
Marc-Andre Fleury, as they are widely rumored to want to retain Robin Lehner
and shop Fleury. But if they expose Fleury, Vegas is at risk of losing out on
either goaltender, and given Fleury’s cockroach-like survival skills, this
could be a potential embarrassment. Defensively, the Golden Knights retain
their top pairing defensemen in Schmidt and Theodore, while also retaining
Nicolas Hague, a 21 year-old still on his entry level contract. Given his
astonishing penchant for scoring in the OHL, where he tallied 35 goals and 43
assists in 2017-18, he has very high upside and losing him for nothing would be
a real shame.
Vegas has five forwards who could be considered truly
integral, and all of them are on good-to-great contracts—Karlsson,
Marchessault, Pacioretty, Smith, and Stone (who has a NMC). While Alex Tuch had
a lackluster 2019-20, with only 17 points, $4.75 million for six years is still
a bargain for the type of player he was in prior seasons. While Vegas could try
to retain Paul Stastny, a bit overpaid but integral to the team, or William
Carrier, who has signed a team-friendly extension, they instead protect
Chandler Stephenson, who had by far his best NHL run after Vegas acquired him
last season, having scored 22 points in 41 games while making only $1.05
million and remaining in restricted free agency.
With the twenty-fourth pick
in the 2020 NHL Expansion Draft, the Seattle Kraken select Nick Cousins, winger
from the Vegas Golden Knights.
Before the postseason began, Cousins had only played in
seven games for Vegas (scoring one goal and recording two assists), which means
the team probably isn’t that attached to him. But the twenty-seven
year-old has displayed some scoring ability, with two double-digit goal
seasons, and he reached 27 and 25 points over the last two seasons, along with
solid defensive play. Cousins probably isn’t a star, but with his 2019-20 price
tag at $1 million and a minimal raise at most likely being on the way, he
doesn’t have to be.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Goalie: Tristan Jarry
Defensemen: Brian Dumoulin, Kris Letang, Marcus Pettersson
Forwards: Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel, Kasperi
Kapanen, Evgeni Malkin, Jared McCann, Bryan Rust, Jason Zucker
For the second consecutive expansion draft, the Penguins are
leaving a Stanley Cup-winning goalie exposed, but this time, they aren’t doing
so because they are protecting a different one. But Tristan Jarry substantially
outplayed Matt Murray this season, and while Murray, who made $3.75 million as
an RFA last season, is hardly overpriced, Jarry is just now entering restricted
free agency. Defensively, Kris Letang is a given, both because of his status as
a Penguins all-timer and because he has a no-move clause. With John Marino, the
team’s stud rookie, still under team control, the Penguins are able to solidify
their current top-two pairings by also protecting Marcus Pettersson, a
youngster, and Brian Dumoulin, a less-youngster, and leaving the most notable
unprotected defenseman for the Penguins as Jack Johnson.
The Penguins have two forwards with no-move clauses, and
they are the exact two you assume do—Crosby and Malkin, unless they had
completely fallen off a cliff, were locks to remain on the Penguins, anyway.
While Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust’s reputations are impossible to separate
from their play with playing alongside Crosby or Malkin, their statistics and
relatively economical contracts make them impossible to push aside. Jared
McCann has managed 35 points in each of the last two seasons, which is
certainly acceptable for a player who only made $1.25 million last season and
shouldn’t expect more than a marginal raise in 2020-21. The last two protects
are reserved for new addition Kasperi Kapanen, whose departure from Toronto was
for entirely cap-related reasons (though his $3.2 million salary isn’t that prohibitive
for most teams), and Jason Zucker, whose $5.5 million cap hit is a bit
concerning but who has scored at least 20 goals in each of the last four
seasons.
With the twenty-fifth pick in
the 2020 NHL Expansion Draft, the Seattle Kraken select Teddy Blueger, center
from the Pittsburgh Penguins.
The Latvian center is certainly cost-effective, at $750,000 for
next season followed by restricted free agency, and at that price, any level of
productivity is probably acceptable, especially considering the Kraken could
have nabbed Patric Hornqvist or Brandon Tanev, granted at much steeper prices.
Blueger alternated between Pittsburgh and the AHL in 2018-19 before spending
the entirety of 2019-20 with the Penguins, where he scored nine goals and 13
assists. A low-risk option who may end up getting some minutes at some point.
Philadelphia Flyers
Goalie: Brian Elliott
Defensemen: Shayne Gostisbehere, Philippe Myers, Ivan
Provorov, Travis Sanheim
Forwards: Sean Couturier, Claude Giroux, Kevin Hayes,
Travis Konecny
What a strange group of protected players the Flyers have.
The strangest player is Brian Elliott, a player the Flyers had no concerns
about leaving, since he is an unrestricted free agent. The Flyers do not have a
single draft-eligible player who is not scheduled to become a free agent, as
starter Carter Hart has only been a professional for two seasons, so they went
ahead and protected Brian Elliott just to allow a veteran they like to get his
name in the papers. And then defensively, the Flyers opted for four defensemen
to protect—Provorov, the 23 year-old on a club-friendly $6.75 million for five
years deal is a given, while Sanheim, who is just 24, gets the benefit of a
known $3.25 million salary for next year before continuing in restricted free
agency. Philippe Myers is just entering restricted free agency, a thing the
team might not have noticed much had he not just concluded a breakout season in
which he supplemented his 16 regular season points with an unexpected three
playoff goals. And while Shayne Gostisbehere is coming off a certainly rough
season, and his $4.5 million salary over the next three years is relevant, he
has shown more upside than any other defenseman on the roster by a fairly wide
margin.
Because of their protection of four defensemen, the Flyers
only get to protect four forwards, two of whom have no-moves: Giroux, the
team’s captain who would have been difficult to not protect for political
reasons if nothing else, and Hayes, who did about what he was expected to do
last season in the first year of his seven-year contract. The next choice is
fairly obvious in Sean Couturier, who scored 59 points in 69 games in a
Selke-winning campaign while making just $4.33 million. And rounding out the
list of protected players, in a list which notably leaves veterans like Jakub
Voracek and James van Riemsdyk unprotected, is Travis Konecny, the 23 year-old
who led the Flyers in goals and points in 2019-20. The protected forward list
may be brief, but it is certainly strong.
With the twenty-sixth pick in
the 2020 NHL Expansion Draft, the Seattle Kraken select Oskar Lindblom, winger
from the Philadelphia Flyers.
Oskar Lindblom, who just turned 24 last month, is due to
make $3 million for each of the next three seasons and will continue to be
under team control through restricted free agency, so he could be seen as a bit
of a long-term project. And although he only played in 30 games last season, he
tallied 11 goals and seven assists, which is a great way to inspire confidence.
In the season before, Lindblom scored 17 goals and 16 assists. Lindblom may not
become a top-line guy, but the Kraken are hoping that Lindblom can become a
mainstay of their middle-six forwards for the next several seasons.
Washington Capitals
Goalie: Vitek Vanecek
Defensemen: John Carlson, Michal Kempny, Jonas
Siegenthaler
Forwards: Nicklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov, T.J.
Oshie, Alex Ovechkin, Richard Panik, Jakub Vrana, Tom Wilson
Vitek Vanecek is a decent minor-league goalie that the
Capitals are protecting purely for depth—Braden Holtby is a pending free agent,
Ilya Samsonov is not draft eligible, and Pheonix Copley is somehow a bit
overpaid at $1.1 million for the next two seasons. Defensively, Norris finalist
John Carlson is an obvious call, even if his $8 million per season for six
years renders him not quite a bargain. And while there is certainly a
temptation to hold on to Dmitry Orlov, who is still a solid enough defenseman,
Michal Kempny is a slightly lesser version at less than half the price. The
final protection goes to Jonas Siegenthaler, undeniably a lesser defenseman but
a player who showed defensive promise and is an inexpensive asset for a team
with a bunch of expensive players.
Imagine the mutiny that would come from the Capitals losing
Alex Ovechkin in an expansion draft—this will not be happening, but just imagine
it. Nicklas Backstrom, the longtime Stockton to Ovi’s Malone, has a no-move
clause, not that he would he unprotected anyway. Because the Capitals at this
point don’t really have much choice but to keep chugging along with the
personnel they have left over from 2018, the talented but also well-compensated
veterans Kuznetsov and Oshie are also locked in. Richard Panik is coming off a
lackluster season, but at $2.75 million, even this diminished version of him
would be fine. Jakub Vrana, the rare Capitals player who seems to be ascending,
is coming off a 25-goal season, which is following a 24-goal season, and he is
just 24 while still in the midst of restricted free agency, so he is an obvious
protect. #7 is a slightly more controversial call, with the divisive Tom Wilson
being protected despite four remaining seasons at over $5 million a year, but
Wilson is also deceptively young (he may have an antiquated style of pestering
play, but he is only 26) and is coming off back-to-back 20+ goal seasons, even
if he is somewhat of a product of the system.
With the twenty-seventh pick
in the 2020 NHL Expansion Draft, the Seattle Kraken select Lars Eller, center
from the Washington Capitals.
Lars Eller
is effectively the last veteran the Capitals couldn’t protect. At 31, he
doesn’t fit the mold of a bunch of Kraken picks, but coming off a 16 goals, 23
assists season, and at a non-excessive $3.5 million tag for the next three
years, Lars Eller will be given a chance to compete for first-line playing
time. If the Kraken are able to contend right away, Eller will be a huge part
of the reason why.
Colorado Avalanche
Goalie: Philipp Grubauer
Defensemen: Samuel Girard, Ryan Graves,
Erik Johnson
Forwards: Andre Burkovsky, Tyson Jost,
Nazem Kadri, Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon, Valeri Nichushkin, Mikko
Rantanen
The
Avalanche have two goalies they’d probably like to protect in Grubauer and
Pavel Francouz, but while the latter performed a little stronger last season,
Grubauer has long been Colorado’s guy—either goalie has a roughly equal chance
of being snagged, and the Avalanche would feel worse if they lost Grubauer than
Francouz. Defensively, Erik Johnson is saddled with a no-move clause the
Avalanche may regret (less because Johnson isn’t worth protecting, but because
other guys are), though Cale Makar being ineligible might warm their hearts.
Samuel Girard, the 22 year-old defenseman who produced nearly half a point a
game last season, is extended for the next seven seasons at a reasonable $5
million per year, and Ryan Graves, though a bit less explosive than Girard, had
a league-best +40 last season and was third in the NHL in Defensive Point
Shares—not bad for a guy who was still on his ELC.
Nathan
MacKinnon may have the most desirable contract in the NHL for a team, as he
will make only $6.3 million for the next three years to play Hart-caliber
center. While Mikko Rantanen’s $9.25 million price tag didn’t pay dividends in
2019-20, as he only played 42 games (but totaled 41 points), but his talent is
absolutely undeniable. Captain Gabriel Landeskog only has one year remaining,
but for just a hair over $5.5 million, he’s a bargain. Nazem Kadri was a
revelation in his first year from Toronto, and he has two years remaining at
$4.5 million with the potential to be a strong #2 center. A pair of 25 year-old
RFAs in Burakovsky and Nichushkin are similarly valuable players who could very
conceivably be secondary scoring options for a championship team. For their final
protect, the Avalanche opt less for a proven commodity and more for potential
in Tyson Jost, who is just entering restricted free agency at 22.
With the twenty-eighth pick
in the 2020 NHL Expansion Draft, the Seattle Kraken select J.T. Compher, winger
from the Colorado Avalanche.
Compher
makes $3.5 million for the next three years and isn’t one of the super-premium
Avalanche forwards, so the team should consider him relatively expendable. But
for Seattle, there is a lot of potential here. Compher is just 25 and has
cleared 30 points in each of the last two seasons. He has logged time on both
the Colorado power play and penalty kill units, and for his career, Compher has
more takeaways than giveaways. In Colorado, J.T. Compher is somewhat
expendable, but for the Kraken, Compher could be useful in many different ways.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Goalie: Andrei Vasilevskiy
Defensemen: Erik Cernak, Victor Hedman,
Mikhail Sergachev
Forwards: Anthony Cirelli, Blake
Coleman, Alex Killorn, Nikita Kucherov, Ondrej Palat, Brayden Point, Steven
Stamkos
A team is
loaded with superpower as the Lightning was always inevitably going to have to
risk some terrific talent, but Vasilevskiy was never at risk—as great as the
skaters on the Lightning are, it is impossible to imagine the organization
handing the reigns over to Curtis McElhinney. Defensively, Hedman might be the
best blue-liner in the NHL, and he is making a hair under $8 million, so even
if he didn’t have a no-move, he would be a slam-dunk to move heaven and earth
to retain. Rather than trying to hold on to veterans Ryan McDonagh or Braydon
Coburn, the Lightning make the obvious choice and protect their young,
up-and-comers who are just now exiting their ELCs—Cernak, the physical 23
year-old Slovakian, and even more significantly Sergachev, the 22 year-old
Russian who scored a career-high 10 goals last season and is already probably
the best non-Hedman defenseman on the Lightning.
The group
protected among the forwards is every bit as loaded. They do have two
NMCs—Kucherov, the defending Hart Trophy winner who would easily be protected
anyway, and Stamkos, whose injury history makes him a tad more frustrating but
whose production when healthy makes $8.5 million per year seem like an
impossible bargain. Brayden Point is the other indispensable Lightning
forward—only 24, his 25 goals and 64 points in 66 games only looks
underwhelming compared to his 41 goals and 92 points in 79 games the year
before. Ondrej Palat is slightly older than Point and Kucherov and his $5.3
million is a tad more commensurate with his talents, but given the chemistry he
has with his linemates, that is not something the Lightning would want to give
up. Alex Killorn and Anthony Cirelli are both top-line center talents who
happen to play on a team with Brayden Point and Steven Stamkos, but at $4.45
million and the early stages of restricted free agency, respectively, they
aren’t paid like them. Blake Coleman might be a bit of a step down by the
standards of the rest of the Lightning forwards, but the late-season
acquisition from the New Jersey Devils is coming off back-to-back 20+ goal
seasons and received Selke votes this season, quite the accomplishments for a
player who has developed a strangely religious grit-and-sandpaper guy
reputation.
With the twenty-ninth pick in
the 2020 NHL Expansion Draft, the Seattle Kraken select Tyler Johnson, center
from the Tampa Bay Lightning.
I mean, if you’re Tampa Bay, what can you do? You wouldn’t
rather give up Tyler Johnson than any of the forwards listed above, but you
also don’t want to lose him for nothing. The 30 year-old center isn’t cheap, at
$5 million for each of the next four years, but he is certainly a player the
Kraken will expect to build their first line around. In his career, Johnson has
four 20-goal seasons, five 40-point seasons, and three seasons in which he
received Selke votes. Playing for Tampa Bay has meant that Johnson never got a
chance to become the guy, but he may get that chance in Seattle.
St. Louis Blues
Goalie: Jordan Binnington
Defensemen: Vince Dunn, Colton Parayko, Marco
Scandella
Forwards: Ivan Barbashev, Ryan O’Reilly, David
Perron, Zach Sanford, Brayden Schenn, Jaden Schwartz, Vladimir Tarasenko
Despite Binnington’s postseason struggles last season, there
is zero chance the Blues are going to give up their Stanley Cup-winning
goaltender coming off an All-Star season for $4.4 million for free.
Defensively, Alex Pietrangelo’s pending free agency makes the defensive
candidates a bit thin, though Colton Parayko, a top pairing defenseman on most
teams who will make just $5.5 million for his next two, in his prime, seasons,
and Vince Dunn, for whatever it’s worth the team’s plus-minus leader last
season, who is just 23 and entering his first post-ELC season. The third pick
goes to Scandella, a late-season addition who has experience playing on
(lower-tier) top pairings and is under a reasonable $3.275 million cap hit for
each of the next four seasons.
The forward position is a little bit tougher for the Blues,
as nearly the entire 2019-20 roster is eligible (the exceptions are Robert
Thomas and Jordan Kyrou, who are both too inexperienced, and Troy Brouwer, the
late-season add who is a pending free agent). Ryan O’Reilly, the team’s leading
scorer, defending Conn Smythe winner, and perpetual Selke candidate, is an
automatic--$7.5 million for three years, considered a bit hefty when the Blues
acquired the contract, now looks like a bargain. The team’s other $7.5 million
contract, that of Vladimir Tarasenko, looks less automatic than it once did, as
Tarasenko is dealing with a lingering injury, but when Tarasenko is right, he
is such a superstar that the Blues avoid risking losing him. Brayden Schenn has
played some of his best hockey since joining the Blues, and even though seven
years at $6.5 million is too much to be considered a bargain, he’s still a very
good player. While the Blues famously did not protect David Perron in the Vegas
expansion draft, he is now coming off his best NHL season and his scoring
levels go well beyond his $4 million cap hit. And Jaden Schwartz, although he
only has one season left under contract, bounced back beautifully from a down
2018-19, and a 22 goal, 35 assist player is worth protecting even if it’s only
for a year. For the last two slots, the Blues opt for a pair of early-RFA guys
in Barbashev and Sanford, both of whom went from rotational guys who would
semi-often be healthy scratched to everyday lineup presences last season,
particularly Sanford, tied for fourth on the team in goals last season.
With the thirtieth pick in
the 2020 NHL Expansion Draft, the Seattle Kraken select Oskar Sundqvist, center
from the St. Louis Blues.
Although he is not as accomplished as Tyler Johnson, this is
a similar case in that a guy who tends to get lost in the shuffle for his
current NHL team will now get a chance to be a prominent member of one. The 26
year-old Sundqvist, whose $2.75 million cap hit for the next three seasons is
particularly reasonable if he can break into the top six, is coming off two
consecutive double-digit goal seasons in which he played a significant share of
his minutes in the defensive zone. Sundqvist has won the Stanley Cup with each
of his two NHL teams so far, and Seattle is hoping his magic continues.
Boston Bruins
Goalie: Tuukka Rask
Defensemen: Brandon Carlo, Matt Grzelcyk, Charlie
McAvoy
Forwards: Patrice Bergeron, Charlie Coyle, Jake
Debrusk, David Krejci, Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak, Nick Ritchie
Despite the wishes of a handful of New England sports talk
lunatics, Rask is firmly entrenched as Boston’s top goalie. Defensively, the
pending free agencies of Zdeno Chara and Torey Krug make who to protect pretty
clear, as the team’s three best remaining defensemen are all pretty
definitively underpaid—McAvoy, at $4.9 million for the next two years, Carlo,
at $2.85 million next season followed by further RFA time, and Grzelcyk, who
made $1.4 million last year and is still a restricted free agent. They could
bank on a John Moore bounce-back season, but that would require leaving a ton of
good forwards exposed.
The Bruins have three forwards with no-move clauses—two of
them, Bergeron and Marchand, are on bargain contracts and would be easily
protected anyway, while the third, Coyle, doesn’t have a horrible cap hit
considering the caliber of player involved ($5.25 million) but does have a
hefty six-year term. David Pastrnak is the obvious protect—the NHL’s leading
goal scorer at $6.66 million for three years was clearly a deal with the devil.
David Krejci is arguably a bit overpaid at this point at $7.25 million, but
it’s only for one more year and the Bruins would surely rather not lose out on
their long-time #2 center for nothing. Jake Debrusk is one of the easier calls
on the team, as he is just leaving his ELC and has never scored fewer than 16
goals in his three NHL seasons—he will barely be 24 when the next season
begins. For their final protected slot, the Bruins opt for Nick Ritchie, slated
to make a hair under $1.5 million next season, who has only played in 15 total
games with the Bruins (he was acquired from Anaheim mid-season) but has
demonstrated solid physicality and occasional scoring touch at a low price.
With the thirty-first and
final pick in the 2020 NHL Expansion Draft, the Seattle Kraken select Ondrej
Kase, winger from the Boston Bruins.
Kase, who
was acquired as part of the deal with Anaheim that got David Backes off
Boston’s books, only played in six regular-season games for the Bruins,
followed by eleven in the postseason, but in his time in Anaheim, he proved a
capable scorer. Two seasons ago, Kase put up 20 goals, and despite only played
in 30 games in 2018-19, he totaled 11. Kase is coming off a bit of a down
season, but he is still only 24 years old and at $2.6 million, his cost isn’t
especially prohibitive.
And with
that, the Seattle Kraken expansion draft has concluded. Below is a general
approximation of what the team’s Opening Night lines would look like, based
solely on draft results.
Goalies: Juuse Saros, Chris Driedger
Defensive Pairing 1: Alex Goligoski, Shea Weber
Defensive Pairing 2: Ryan Lindgren, Justin Holl
Defensive Pairing 3: Adam Pelech, Ethan Bear
Forward Line 1: Radek Faksa, Tyler Johnson, Ondrej
Kase
Forward Line 2: Ryan Donato, Lars Eller, J.T. Compher
Forward Line 3: Oskar Lindblom, Nick Cousins, Oskar
Sundqvist
Forward Line 4: Sonny Milano, Teddy Blueger, Sam
Bennett
Healthy Scratches: Marcus Hogberg, Haydn Fleury, Zack
MacEwen
Do I think the Seattle Kraken, as they currently stand, are
a team capable of repeating the Vegas Golden Knights Stanley Cup Final run? No,
I do not. Do I think the Seattle Kraken are capable of making the playoffs?
Sure, but I wouldn’t bet on it. But I wouldn’t have bet on Vegas to do it,
either. I do think this is a competent roster that wouldn’t completely embarrass
itself and is certainly not the worst team in the NHL. The thirty-one players
the Kraken selected, most of whom do not have salary commitments beyond next
season, if you assume a minimum CBA-negotiated RFA raise for next season (which
may seem generous, but given the financial uncertainty of the National Hockey
League, I don’t think this is completely unreasonable), have a combined salary
of $61,353,976, leaving them above the salary floor and with $20,146,024 to
spare (even if I’m dramatically underestimating RFA wages this off-season, I
guarantee I am not underestimating them by that much). Maybe Seattle can
even make a run at Pietrangelo and Hall now. May the Kraken forever be
unleashed.
