Monday, August 24, 2020

Donald Trump is America's first Online president

George H.W. Bush was the first American president to have an e-mail address. Bill Clinton presided over the beginning of the official White House website and the internet going from a technology for hobbyists to a part of mainstream western culture. Under George W. Bush, the internet went from common to indispensable. And Barack Obama galvanized young voters via Web 2.0 along the way to his historic victory in the 2008 election.

Presidents 41 through 44 were users of the internet, of somewhat varying degrees but definitionally so. But by the modern standard that has been established over the last 43 months, Donald Trump is truly the first Online president.

There is a different between being online and being Online.  Being online is, overall, a strength. It suggests an intellectual curiosity and a basic desire to be aware of the world beyond your very immediate social circles. Being Online reduces the potential of the internet to its basic id-fueled level, one where all of recorded history is at your fingertips but where the most grandiose function you can conjure is aligning this data in a way designed to blindly benefit you.

A popular canard during both the 2016 and 2020 Democratic presidential primaries was that Bernie Sanders was the candidate of Online. “Online” is usually defined as “what’s being said on Twitter”, a social medium used by less than one-fourth of American adults, and since the demographics of Twitter skew young and politically left, it makes sense to assume a kinship with Bernie Sanders, the furthest left candidate among the Democratic field in either of his presidential runs.

Sanders is, indeed, more popular and discussed on Twitter than he is in most places. He is a man, after all, who has two Twitter accounts (@SenSanders and @BernieSanders) which each have more followers than the Democratic vice president who semi-handily defeated him for the party’s nomination in 2020, Joe Biden. But Bernie Sanders is not a particularly Online person. He is a 78 year-old man who has been a member of Congress since three years before Netscape launched. He has used the internet as a way to exponentially grow his grassroots movements, not as a central tenet of his political identity.

Younger Congressional lefties, most famously New York congresswoman Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez, have a more compelling argument to being truly Online than Sanders. But while Ocasio-Cortez’s political strategy is far more overtly centered around the internet (the 30 year-old first-term representative already has 95% of the Twitter following of Biden and speaks the language of the social media-savvy millennial fluently), she is still, at her core, a professional politician. She serves on two committees, four sub-committees, and while her use of social media has been noted, Ocasio-Cortez has been notable as a retail politician who has made campaign appearances across the country.

Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016 presidential election has been hindsighted to death, as political experts have bent over backwards to explain why the 46% of American voters who voted for Trump are reflective of a sort of silent majority (one so silent that it does not even represent a majority). “Twitter isn’t real life” became the sentiment, one that anybody who had followed the 2016 Democratic primaries and its end result could have easily identified. To note that the internet creates various echo chambers that are misleading about American political culture is not only fair, but it is necessary. But it comes bundled with an implication that Donald Trump is a man who rises above it, rather than a man obsessed with Online.

While Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is somewhat Online and Bernie Sanders has occasional touches of it, the actual current Democratic nominee for president is decidedly Not Online. While Joe Biden has the requisite social media feeds, he is also a political lifer. He became a congressman the same month that Carly Simon’s “You’re So Vain” and Stevie Wonder “Superstition” topped the American pop charts, and his attitudes often show it, for better or worse. Unlike Barack Obama, the man whose presidency made the twice-failed primary candidate Biden’s eventual successful run possible, Joe Biden does not seem to have any interest in becoming a cultural ombudsman. As irritating as I can find Biden’s political passivity, that is one thing I appreciate about him. And it fits Biden’s pitch to America—that he is a decent but fairly boring but most importantly serious man who understands how politics works.

The 2020 Democratic National Convention was as typical as a convention centered around Zoom could be. A host of ex-presidents, notable current politicians, and 2020 Democratic primary candidates spoke, while COVID-19 first responders and other non-controversial civilians gave testimonies to the character of the candidate. On Thursday, Joe Biden’s speech, perhaps buoyed by low expectations, was effective, but it was hardly transformative. This wasn’t Barack Obama giving his 2008 acceptance speech at a football stadium in Denver. It was a guy who doesn’t really care for public speaking trying to speak from the heart.

The 2020 Republican National Convention began tonight with Charlie Kirk, the 26 year-old student organizer who is a favorite among older conservatives. This may not seem like a great sign for Republicans promoting themselves as the adults in the room, but while Kirk might be more of a mascot than an actual influencer (Charlie Kirk doesn’t even have a Wikipedia page, come on), he is at the very least a political communicator who has reached his current level in life through his ability to resonate with some people. I may not be one of those people, but I also recognize that I am not the target demographic.

Tonight, the speaker docket included Mark and Patricia McCloskey. If you know who these people are by name, like I do, you are probably rather Online. If you don’t, you aren’t alone.

The McCloskeys rose to some level of internet fame two months ago when the married couple clumsily “defended” their house against Black Lives Matter protesters in a wealthy St. Louis neighborhood. When pictures of the two began to make the rounds on social media, they initially tried to claim support for the Black Lives Matter movement, but once conservative talk media started to call, they either dropped the façade or simply embraced the grift. The McCloskeys are a truly Online phenomenon—both are still gainfully employed, and while the two were charged with unlawful use of a weapon, there is almost no chance the two ever see any punishment (as an aside, while I find the McCloskeys obnoxious, I do not particularly care if they do).

But the McCloskeys got made fun of a whole bunch of Twitter for a couple days, which in the eyes of a particularly privileged type of voter, is the absolute worst thing that could happen to a person in 2020. This type of person, however, is almost certainly not a swing voter. While leftists were annoyed at the presence of John Kasich at last week’s DNC speaking in support of Joe Biden, there is a fairly obvious reason why—while the Never Trump Republican faction was never as big as its members want the public to believe it is, it does exist, and guys like Kasich who are somewhat conservative but are also rigorously norms-adherent are very much up for grabs. Millionaires who point guns at protesters and become internet pariahs are statistically insignificant. But in the eyes of Online, they are important figures.

The McCloskeys are not significant people. There is nothing heroic about them—even at the most generous interpretation of them, they are a couple of people who felt compelled to defend their property against potential destruction, no shots were fired, and the world continued on, same as it ever was. But they represent the concerns of a deeply Online president. There are hundreds of Republican congresspeople who will not participate in the Republican National Convention, and yet the sole participants in it from a state that has two Republican Senators and a Republican governor are the focus of memes.

When I was growing up, young people were told that the internet wasn’t real life. We still are, even as my generation is firmly in its late twenties to mid-thirties. It turns out that wasn’t the case.

Wednesday, August 19, 2020

2020 Team North America would win the World Cup of Hockey

In the 2016 World Cup of Hockey, the National Hockey League dropped all pretense of an honest best-on-best tournament. The NHL had an eight-team tournament planned out, but there is a clear top-six among international hockey teams. So two other teams were concocted, a Team Europe, consisting of the best European (and effectively the best non-North American) players from outside of the hockey-mad nations of Sweden, Finland, Russia, and Czech Republic, and a Team North America, consisting of the best players from North America age 23 and younger.

Team North America: 2016 Edition was not the best team in the tournament, and the final result reflected this, but it became the most entertaining part of the tournament. The roster was uneven but fast and exciting, and if you leaf through the names on it in 2020, it seems impossible the team ever lost a game.

There is no World Cup of Hockey 2020, and that’s not because the NHL season is still going on right as the tournament would be approaching—it’s because nothing fun is allowed to happen. But I wondered what would became of a hypothetical 2020 World Cup and I created what I would expect to be the eight teams in the tournament. I might share them later. But for now, I’m sharing the best team. And it ain’t Canada. It’s the young guns of Team North America.

Team North America is so good that it effectively decimates the roster of Team United States, and while Team Canada would still surely contend for the Gold Medal, they could really use some of the talent that is instead being funneled to the youngster roster. I want to pretend this team really exists because it is extremely fun and good and fun and good things are fun and good.

Goalies: Carter Hart, Mackenzie Blackwood, Jake Oettinger

I don’t really have much to say about Oettinger, a solid 21 year-old minor leaguer in the Dallas Stars organization. Barring injury, he would never even dress for TNA. The real headliners are Carter Hart and Mackenzie Blackwood, respectively 22 year-old and 23 year-old Canadians from the Metropolitan division who were teammates for Canada at the 2019 World Championships. Hart is slightly more acclaimed, after his career with the Philadelphia Flyers got off to a red-hot start which resulted in Calder votes in 2018-19, while Blackwood has the worse goals against average (though by save percentage, the more telling statistic, they’re nearly dead-even). Carter Hart has been the more consistent goalie, even if the Flyers’ team edge over the New Jersey Devils is a major contributing factor to that, so he would get the starts, but Blackwood would be waiting in the wings. Either of these guys could probably be the #2 goalie for a proper Team Canada behind Carey Price, though, so even though goalie tends to be a position for relatively old players, Team North America wouldn’t exactly be hurting.

Forward Line 1: Kyle Connor, Connor McDavid, Alex DeBrincat

2016 captain Connor McDavid is, somehow, still only 23, and comes back to captain Team North America despite the fact that he is more than capable of getting an “A” for Team Canada if he were allowed. As he is the best player in the world, it should be no surprise he is on the first line. He is flanked on his left side by another Connor, of the Kyle variety—the American winger is probably the second-best pure goal scorer on the roster, having eclipsed the 30-goal mark in each of the last two seasons with the Winnipeg Jets, including a career-best 38 in 2019-20. This will be Connor’s only chance at TNA, as he becomes ineligible in December, but he gets his shot in (fictional, imaginary) 2020. And on the right side is another sniper in Chicago Blackhawks right winger Alex DeBrincat, an undersized forward who had a down 2019-20 but tallied 41 goals in 2018-19. This is a line of pure offensive glory, and this is still a team that very much goes four lines deep.

Forward Line 2: Matthew Tkachuk, Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner

Like the first line, this line has two Americans and one Canadian, but unlike the first line, it has a pair of actual linemates in Toronto Maple Leafs young guns Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. Matthews, who will be a preposterous power play threat with McDavid, tallied 47 goals in 70 games last season and has 158 scores in his four-year NHL career, and Marner has been the main guy setting up Matthews—the duo are of split nationalities, so this is a last opportunity for them to play at an “international” level. And with Matthew Tkachuk, Marner’s OHL teammate with the London Knights, the line has a physical pest, but he’s far from a goon—the Calgary Flame is a nearly point-per-game player who can act as a crease-patrolling rebound artist.

Forward Line 3: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Jack Eichel, Brock Boeser

Although Pierre-Luc Dubois isn’t quite the volume scorer that Connor or Tkachuk is, he was nevertheless the leading scorer for a playoff Columbus Blue Jackets team and has proven capable as a big-bodied forward who can also win you a face-off from time to time (he actually has a higher winning percentage in his career than the center on this line). While Jack Eichel has been a bit overshadowed in his career compared to Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews, the #2 pick in the 2015 NHL Draft is probably still America’s second-best center of any age (behind Matthews) and has scored more than a point per game for each of the last two seasons, tallying 36 goals and 42 assists with the Buffalo Sabres in 2019-20. And while Brock Boeser hasn’t quite reached the acclaim of Dubois or especially Eichel, he has proven to be a formidable power play presence with the Vancouver Canucks.

Forward Line 4: Jake Debrusk, Mathew Barzal, Travis Konecny

Line 4 is the conventional checking line, but on a team with this much talent from which to draw, this is a line good enough to be a first line on most NHL teams. Jake Debrusk is a terrific two-way forward who is often overshadowed among a stacked Boston Bruins forward corps, but his discipline and occasional scoring punch make him a formidable twelfth forward. Mathew Barzal is most definitely not the prototype of a fourth-line center, but the crisp-passing New York Islander is far too talented to exclude (and he’s gotten Selke votes, too, so it’s not as though he’s completely miscast). And Travis Konecny, a center for the Philadelphia Flyers but surely capable of playing on the wing, is coming off a career-high 61 points in 66 games, including 24 goals.

Defensive Pairing 1: Zach Werenski, Cale Makar

On the left side, Team North America gets Zach Werenski, the most established NHL defenseman of the group. He leads the defensive group in career goals and assists, and the Columbus Blue Jackets mainstay receives consistently glowing marks by Defensive Point Shares. Paired with the relative veteran Werenski is a youngster in Cale Makar, but one who is among the highest upside players on the entire roster. The 21 year-old Colorado Avalanche sensation tallied 50 points in 57 games and produced sterling defensive numbers to go with it. Even if his defense is somewhat less established than some of his righty alternatives, his offensive production makes him a strong first-pairing choice.

Defensive Pairing 2: Quinn Hughes, Charlie McAvoy

Following a pairing with a relatively established lefty and a rookie righty, the second pairing for TNA flips the script. Quinn Hughes tallied 56 points and while the 20 year-old American has been largely overshadowed by his younger brother Jack, the Vancouver Canucks point man has been the superior NHL player. On the right side is Charlie McAvoy, an instant mainstay for the Boston Bruins who has spent most of the last three seasons on the top pairing for perpetual contenders. McAvoy helps to mask whatever questions are rightfully still asked about Hughes.

Defensive Pairing 3: Vince Dunn, Adam Fox

It undeniably lacks the punch of the top two pairings, but Team North America could certainly do worse than Dunn and Fox. While Vince Dunn is currently in the midst of a playoff series to forget with the St. Louis Blues, he has been a puck-possessing god for the last three seasons and packs a scoring punch. Adam Fox is less established, having just played his first NHL games last season and not being an especially acclaimed prospect prior to that, but he averaged over half a point per game with the New York Rangers and was a top-twenty player in the NHL by Defensive Point Shares last season. Dunn and Fox would presumably not play more than ten minutes or so a night, but each could fit well into the special teams picture, Dunn on the power play and Fox on the penalty kill.

Healthy Scratches: Jakob Chychrun, Clayton Keller

In addition to the aforementioned Jake Oettinger, a pair of Arizona Coyotes crack the roster as depth—Jakob Chychrun, a slightly poorer man’s version of Vince Dunn, and Clayton Keller, who might have been the best forward last season on a Coyotes team that has Phil Kessel on it. Yep, this team is absurdly good. They’re winning the fake gold medal in my head.

Tuesday, August 11, 2020

The (probably not happening) Stanley Cup handoffs, ranked

One of my favorite parts of the Stanley Cup Playoffs is the handoff of the Stanley Cup. It is an uncertain event, unlike the Cup being lifted (the Vegas Golden Knights do not have a captain, so there is some level of uncertainty there). And it is a high-floor event. Most years, we don't get Joe Sakic giving Ray Bourque his first Stanley Cup lift, nor Steve Yzerman handing it off to his paralyzed ex-teammate Vladimir Konstantinov, nor Scott Niedermayer handing off the Cup to his brother. But we get some captain handing the Cup off to some veteran and that's cool.

I suspect most people who are not fans of the St. Louis Blues don't even remember last year's hand-off, from Alex Pietrangelo to his longtime (former) defensive partner, title-less veteran Jay Bouwmeester. But it was cool. It was ordinary, but like I said, their standards of "ordinary" is very high.

Because of COVID-19, we probably aren't going to get a Stanley Cup handoff. We might not even get a Stanley Cup lift, which also stinks. But for now, I focus on the handoffs, even if they only exist in my dreams. Below is a ranking of the sixteen handoffs, based on my guess of what the handoff would be, as evaluated on the following criteria:

  • Poignancy. We don't have any sibling handoffs this year, and there isn't an old guy without a Cup quite to the level of Ray Bourque, but some guys are more deserving than others.
  • Hilarity. I love watching Vladimir Konstantinov, a man who had spent most of the prior year fighting for his life, wheeling the Stanley Cup around the ice. I also think it'd be really funny if someone dropped and broke the Stanley Cup. I am a complicated man.
  • My own whims. It's my list and if you care how I rank things, that's your problem.
16. Chicago Blackhawks: Jonathan Toews hands off to Ryan Carpenter: The hilarity, if you can ignore the whole racist logo and "their best player is a violent criminal" thing, is a last-place team winning a Stanley Cup in a bogus playoff format partially designed to make sure they got to participate. The Blackhawks are a capped-out team because they invested heavily in re-signing the veterans who helped them win three Stanley Cups, and their roster reflects that to such an extent that Ryan Carpenter, a 29 year-old who has a career-high of 18 points in a season, is their most seasoned veteran without having won a title. Maybe they'll just give the Cup to Patrick Kane again. I hate this stupid team.

15. Arizona Coyotes: Oliver Ekman-Larsson hands off to Carl Soderberg: There is a Taylor Hall case, as he is certainly the biggest name on the roster to have not won a Stanley Cup (i.e. the most famous player that isn't Phil Kessel), but considering Hall just joined the Coyotes this season and may be gone once this playoff run is over, the safer pick is probably Carl Soderberg, a 34 year-old title-less two-way center who at least has spent the entire season on the Coyotes. He might be gone soon, too, but he fits the gritty veteran ethos a little more neatly.

14. New York Islanders: Anders Lee hands off to Derick Brassard: The Islanders actually have a bunch of veterans, but most of them aren't very interesting candidates. Brassard is the best and most presently useful of the lot that haven't won Stanley Cups, and a 33 (when the Cup is won) year-old who had a decent career is good enough for me.

13. Colorado Avalanche: Gabriel Landeskog hands off to Erik Johnson: Colorado doesn't have very many veterans, and the 32 year-old Erik Johnson is the team's second-oldest player. He isn't a star player, but Johnson has been on the Avalanche for over a decade and forged an adequate career as a second-pairing defenseman after his time as a #1 overall pick. If it weren't for 2019, the thought of Erik Johnson lifting the Stanley Cup for a team owned by For Legal Purposes Not Stan Kroenke would destroy my soul. Now, it only mildly irritates me.

12. Carolina Hurricanes: Jordan Staal hands off to Justin Williams: The big knock against Justin Williams is he's won the Stanley Cup. Three times. And he won a Conn Smythe. But he is the unquestioned veteran leader of this extremely young team, and none of the top players on the team, titleless as they may be, cannot wait their turns. Of their five leading scorers that haven't won Stanley Cups, the oldest was born in June of 1993 (and is presently hurt).

11. St. Louis Blues: Alex Pietrangelo hands off to Justin Faulk: The lack of options is inherently funny. The vast majority of the St. Louis Blues roster won the Stanley Cup last season, so the closest thing to a veteran star without a Cup is a 28 year-old guy who arrived less than a year ago. But Faulk is a former Olympian, so he's not a total non-entity in terms of NHL accomplishment. Marco Scandella, who is 30, would be funnier, but I just don't think he'd be the pick. Faulk's appeal here is entirely based on the humor of the situation, but he's slightly too good to be hilarious. Now, in a world where the Joel Edmundson trade never happens and the Cup is instead handed off to Scandella, who played with the Blues for less than a month before the postseason? That's fighting for #1.

10. Tampa Bay Lightning: Steven Stamkos hands off to Braydon Coburn: They might (correctly) go with Victor Hedman instead, but my money is on Braydon Coburn, the 35 year-old stay-at-home defenseman who has spent half a decade in Tampa and is "debuted with the Atlanta Thrashers" years old. I can't imagine Braydon Coburn wouldn't retire after this game if he wins the Stanley Cup. People love athletes going out on top.

9. Boston Bruins: Zdeno Chara hands off to Tuukka Rask: Technically, Rask already has a Cup win, but as a backup to current bunker resident Tim Thomas. This would be a lovely moment for Tuukka Rask, an unfairly maligned star who deserves more credit. We almost saw who the Bruins would've picked last year. Just a reminder that we didn't.

8. Vegas Golden Knights: Deryk Engelland hands off to Paul Stastny: The two oldest Cup-less Golden Knights are actually former Blues--Stastny and Ryan Reaves. Stastny is older and more accomplished, so while Reaves will come early in the process, Paul becoming the first Stastny to hoist the Stanley Cup would be more likely (I don't think it's impossible, if Marc-Andre Fleury reclaims the starting spot, if the veteran goalie got it first, but since he's already won, I think he'd defer). Because of Peter Stastny, a Hall of Famer who never won a title, there's some bonus points here, but the real highlight is Deryk Engelland, by far the least accomplished of the remaining captains and de facto captains, going full circle--he was a Las Vegas resident before the Golden Knights existed, having met his wife while playing in the ECHL in Las Vegas, and he gave a speech about the city's recovery from the Route 91 shooting prior to the team's first game. Stastny is worthy of a prime handoff, but it would be overlooked.

7. Philadelphia Flyers: Claude Giroux hands off to Jakub Voracek: The Flyers have two star Cup-less forwards in their thirties as options here, but Jakub Voracek gets the slight edge over James Van Riemsdyk based on a longer continuous run in Philadelphia (it doesn't hurt that he is also a better player). Brian Elliott could make a run if he were the starter, but if he were the starter, the Flyers wouldn't be winning the Stanley Cup, now would they?

6. Columbus Blue Jackets: Nick Foligno hands off to Cam Atkinson: It's hard to say "no" to a lifelong Blue Jacket who is the team's second-oldest non-captain (the oldest, Nathan Gerbe, is far less accomplished and less tenured as a member of the team). I can't pretend I'm hyper-enthusiastic about Cam Atkinson--a good but not elite player who is barely 31--but I'm fairly confident this would be the hand-off guy, so I want to boost it for that. I also wouldn't be opposed to just bringing Rick Nash out for it anyway.

5. Calgary Flames: Mark Giordano hands off to Mikael Backlund: At 31, Backlund is an older hockey player but not an Old Hockey Player, but he is a grizzled veteran of the Calgary Flames. There would be a certain poignancy to a couple guys who have been teammates through mostly thin times over eleven years in Calgary passing off the trophy to one another. The only older non-Giordano players are a late bloomer whose NHL grind is much briefer (Derek Ryan), a goalie who just arrived for this season (Cam Talbot), and a guy who already won a Cup (Milan Lucic).

4. Montreal Canadiens: Shea Weber hands off to Carey Price: This is a goalie I'm positive about. It doesn't hurt that any circumstance under which the Canadiens win the Cup almost certainly is the result of Carey Price standing on his head for a couple months. Carey Price is far and away the greatest Canadien since their last title, and if he didn't play for the greatest goaltending franchise in NHL history, he'd be viewed as among any other franchise's all-time greats. Also, he won a Gold Medal for Canada, which I'm pretty sure he means he, thanks to obscure bylaws, legally owns the Stanley Cup already anyway.

3. Vancouver Canucks: Bo Horvat hands off to Alexander Edler: I assume most casual Canucks fans think Edler is the captain anyway. The 34 year-old Swede is a career-long Canuck and an obvious link to the near-championship Sedin Twins era of the franchise. Edler was and is a decent defenseman for a franchise with a hilarious lack of good ones, so while Alex Edler lifting the Stanley Cup may not seem like much of a story, he might be the greatest one in the history of the team. And that counts for something.

2. Washington Capitals: Alex Ovechkin hands off to Ilya Kovalchuk: You wouldn't think a team that won the Stanley Cup two years ago would have much in the way of veteran options of the Cup handoff, but Ilya Kovalchuk, a 37 year-old Hall of Fame candidate, fits the bill. He is completely washed and only played in seven games for the Capitals, which is why he isn't in first on this list, but kudos to the Caps for managing this strong of a candidate given their recent history.

1. Dallas Stars: Jamie Benn hands off to Joe Pavelski: There are two Hall of Very Good level veterans that the Dallas Stars brought in this year. Luckily, Pavelski is easily the pick over Corey Perry because Pavelski is slightly older, hasn't won a Cup, and isn't a giant asshole. Ben Bishop would be a fine pick, even if goalies tend to get short-shrift on the handoff, and the younger but more integral Tyler Seguin would have an outside shot if he hadn't won a Stanley Cup with Boston in 2011, but Pavelski simplifies matters and is the gritty veteran worthy of your hopes and dreams this year.