Wednesday, July 26, 2023

I literally can’t believe how much the Terminally Online Right didn’t get Barbie

(Some spoilers ahead)

Unlike cancel culture, cancel culture culture is an actual culture. It is a lifestyle choice. Cancel culture, to the extent that it is a real thing, is about a specific action—being outraged that, for the rare literal example of cancelation, reruns of Bill Cosby’s 1980s TV show are still airing and urging them to be canceled—and then calling off the dogs once the mission is accomplished. But cancel culture culture is about finding a new thing to be mad about. It’s about being mad that Bud Light sent a single custom order of its product to a relatively unknown social media influencer (social media influencers are not, in reality, famous), or being mad that Target sells trans-focused swimwear (online, not that such a distinction should matter, though it rebuts the critical focus of their argument), or that the new Greta Gerwig film Barbie is “too woke”. Once one goal is accomplished or fails, a new one comes up. The outrage cannot end, because doing so would force cancel culture culture warriors to acknowledge how deeply unpopular their beliefs actually are in 2023.

That Barbie is not an utterly vapid popcorn flick should not be a surprise to anybody with even a tangential knowledge of it—its writers, the aforementioned Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach, have histories of typically dark senses of humor; its stars, Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling, are critically acclaimed actors with primarily PG-13-plus filmographies; its trailer, after all, includes Robbie as the primary of the titular Barbies asking her friends, “Do you guys ever think about dying?” It is fundamentally a comedy, but its frequent juxtaposition with Oppenheimer, framing it as the ideal antidote to the gravity of a film centering around the Manhattan Project, ignores the film’s deeper themes—indictments of consumerism, reflections on the human condition, and most controversially to some on the right, scathing critiques of the real world’s patriarchy.

The latter is what has the likes of Ben Shapiro and Piers Morgan complaining that Barbie is misandric, anti-male propaganda. And to be clear, to say that the film is anti-patriarchy is completely fair, but its feminism is hardly radical. The film’s politics are so agreeable that the film borders on apolitical—that men and women should be treated equally. It is a point that, although many would privately disagree, few would argue against publicly. Which requires a misreading of Barbie which is either intentionally obtuse (I think this is more likely) or aggressively moronic.

Barbie follows a fairly conventional three-act structure; in the first act, Margot Robbie’s Barbie and Ryan Gosling’s Ken are depicted to live in Barbieland, a world in which women hold every significant position of power (Issa Rae, for instance, portrays President Barbie) and men exist essentially as eye candy for the women—Ken refers to his job simply as “beach” and is portrayed as a well-meaning dimwit, but a dimwit nonetheless. This is, I assume, the nexus of the film’s supposed anti-male propaganda, and I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if Ben Shapiro watched exactly enough of the movie to reach this point and then drew his own conclusions.

But the metaphor here is almost laughably simple—I would be open to criticism that this is a structural weakness of the film—and yet the cancel culture cultural machine has seemingly missed it completely—in Barbieland, men and women have essentially flipped the social dynamic from the late 1950s/early 1960s (the era in which the doll Barbie was first introduced). This was an era in which men controlled everything of substance, had right of first refusal on all shots at home, and is portrayed in an often-idyllic way in retrospect. But like many women of that era, the Kens do not complain about their second-classic citizenship because they simply cannot perceive any other way of doing things. The men are undeniably ignorant, but to proclaim them as inherently stupid would be analogous to proclaiming women of the 1950s as inherently stupid; there may be a strand of feminism initially inclined to do so, but this can be easily used as justification for maintaining the class hierarchy. Which Barbie pretty aggressively does not do.

In the film’s second act, in the real world, Barbie is rightfully sickened by the misogyny she sees, both on a basic human behavior level (reasonable indignation of her objectification) and on a structural level (that every person in the Mattelboard room is a man). Ken, however, is charmed by a world in which men have power (though he encounters the limits of the power when he asks to perform surgery). Ironically, Ken’s contentment in this moment is an indictment of the men’s rights activist types who believe that the world of 2023 is pointedly anti-male: he sees a world that is as progressive to women as the modern, western world has ever been as a male paradise because, from the perspective of a Barbieland native, it is.

In the third act, when Barbie returns to her home, the Kens have taken control of the world via propaganda and brainwashing—this is of course villainous behavior, but it does not exactly shine well upon the Barbies, either, as they easily succumbed to the pressure of their former boy toys. The men in Barbie are far from intellectuals, but it’s not as though the women prove to be particularly smart, either. At first, this felt like a plot hole, but once the central conflict is resolved, it makes far more sense.

When the women inevitably regain control of Barbieland, Ryan Gosling’s Ken believes he has found a revelation—that his ultimate purpose in life is not to be in charge (which he admits to not enjoying) but to be with Margot Robbie’s Barbie, a premise which Barbie rejects. Both characters find themselves in positions of extreme power and subservience and both are unsatisfying to them. And in this moment, it is very specifically stated, in as plain of terms as you could imagine, that the human condition applies to both men and women and that the world is better when both are able to pursue their own happiness. The Barbies specifically acknowledge the shortcomings of their previous regime and vow to create a world in which both Barbies and Kens (and Allans) can be as happy together as possible.

The feminism of Barbie should be of a particularly agreeable variety, and yet hyper-Online conservatives have found reasons to be mad at an incredibly basic premise. For their sake, they should hope their next faux-outrage has a bit more to it.

Wednesday, July 19, 2023

Automobiles are the true robot apocalypse

In 2014, I was working in a small office in St. Charles when I mentioned to some co-workers that I was attending a St. Louis Cardinals game that night. They expressed concern about the dangers of me driving from my South County apartment to the downtown Busch Stadium, concerns which spiraled out of control when I told them I was only going to drive as far as a MetroLink park-and-ride and then take the city’s rapid transit system to the game. A few years later, I was flying to San Diego and some co-workers (same office, different co-workers) expressed concern about the dangers of air travel.

In both situations, I was unfazed by this concern and calmly noted empirical facts: respectively, that my daily commute (30 miles each way) is far more dangerous than riding MetroLink, a system with sporadic violence but which is far less frequent than injurious car accidents, and that statistically, I was more likely to be killed in a car accident on the way to the airport than killed in a plane crash. In neither case were the numbers themselves questioned on a literal level, but car accidents were treated as an inevitable cost of living. Citing car accident data would be like countering the dangers of smoking cigarettes by observing that more people die of heart disease—yes, it’s true, but it’s not like the threat of lung cancer somehow makes one invincible against the threat of a heart attack.

Yesterday, on a stretch of road so near my house that I occasionally walk my dog through it, a car barreling down the street at an estimated 100 miles per hour flew into a house, killing its driver and narrowly avoiding hitting a toddler inside the house. I do not know the context for the accident, nor do I care to speculate, nor do I care to even indict the departed other than to note that for the family merely existing inside its house, the actions of an outside force were nearly a death sentence.

In a historical context, while motor vehicle fatalities have increased somewhat over the last few years, the rates of death are nowhere near the all-time highs—modern vehicles are equipped with improved safety features and now-standard equipment like seat belts were once uncommon. But the motor vehicle fatality rate is still roughly three times higher than it is in Europe, and there is no reason to believe that it should start to decline any time soon. Vehicles have exploded in size—pickup trucks, for instance, once prioritized bed space (you know, the practical reason for one to own a pickup truck in the first place) and now seem to prioritize height, cab size, and overall vehicular mass. Despite the increased presence of convenient ride-sharing programs, impaired driving remains a major concern, including the somewhat paradoxical reality that legal marijuana (which is mostly harmless) leads to illegal impaired driving (sensory deprivation being the biggest physical drawback of marijuana). Infrastructure is literally crumbling—partially because of general austerity and partially because of the toll large vehicles take on them, roads are increasingly littered with potholes. And of course, there are the cell phones—the dangers of texting and driving, which is illegal in most states (but not Missouri!) but relatively difficult to enforce create major distractions in increasingly large vehicles on increasingly dangerous roads. And while the deaths of drivers are not increasing exponentially, the dangers for pedestrians are.

In 2021, 7,388 pedestrians were killed in road traffic accidents. In Germany (about one-fourth the population), that total was 344, and that number nearly slashed in half from 2011, whereas in the United States, the number nearly doubled. The United States has not treated this as a serious problem—in the St. Louis area, local County Council doofus Ernie Trakas has proposed a ban on people standing in the streets, an idea which not only targets the homeless but also has clearly chosen the side that cars have won in the battle against pedestrians so pedestrians must go home.

Urbanism, for me, is a little bit like religious skepticism—I broadly agree with the conclusions of those who practice it, but man can they ever be excruciatingly annoying in trying to convey their messages. Those who are the loudest about boosting public transportation often make arguments tinged in classism, willfully blind to the fact that those who have the most pressing need for cars tend to live further away from their jobs, not to mention the fact that those in rural areas, for whom public transportation is almost never an option, usually make less money than their urban or suburban counterparts. So I want to be clear about something—personal automobiles are never going away entirely, nor do I think should they. There are some major urban areas where one can easily live without a car or without even using Uber or a taxi, but for most people, this is not a realistic option. I live in an inner suburb of St. Louis, and it would take me 17 minutes to drive from my house to Busch Stadium, and it would take me over four times as long using exclusively public transportation and my own two feet. Using only non-gas-powered vehicles (walking and MetroLink), it would take me two hours and 45 minutes. And I’m not exactly in the sticks—in most counties in America, there isn’t bus service, much less light rail. Some urbanists live in delusion, strident in their belief that willpower is the only reason that every corner of the United States does not have access to New York City Subway-quality mass transit. I choose to support improvement.

Last year, I visited New York for the first and hopefully not last time, and it was a revelation just how efficient and convenient the New York City Subway was. My wife and I bought week-long passes on our first day in the city and effortlessly traversed the city. From our South Manhattan hotel, we floated wherever we wanted in the city. We headed up to the Bronx while playing with our phones almost the entire trip. We got drunk at a bar in Brooklyn and got to our beds with minimal effort. We crossed New Jersey off our states-to-visit list for a few extra bucks on an every-bit-as-convenient PATH train. And on the two occasions in which we found ourselves in an automobile—taxis to and from LaGuardia Airport (to be fair, how do you go to New York and not take a taxi; you don’t know that it definitely isn’t the Cash Cab)—I found the experience extremely stressful, and that was as a passenger with a fully qualified driver behind the steering wheel. A majority of New Yorkers do not own a car for a reason—a robust, publicly-funded transit system means that, unlike in most of the country (including St. Louis, which has a decent but limited system), driving is the less convenient option.

The residual effects of NYCS are plentiful. Just consider the last few months of weather news—extreme heat mixed with extreme, less predictable thunderstorms and terrible air quality. This is likely only to get worse as climate change continues to intensify. Meanwhile, the New York City Subway is electrically powered—far better for air quality than fossil fuels. In a country where obesity and generally unhealthy personal behavior is increasing, paradoxically while fitness industries are growing, even taking the subway incentivizes a fair amount of walking, certainly more than a world where businesses tend to have private parking lots. I ate and drank to my heart’s content and if anything lost some weight on the trip because my total step counts for the day were exploding—obviously, some of this can be attributed to general vacation browsing, but it’s safe to say that the average New Yorker walks quite a bit more on their daily commute than I do, where I walk to my car, drive to my office, and then walk from the parking lot to my desk (my only saving grace in this is that I, office worker, drive a Prius C and not a Silverado). Like I said earlier, I drank a bunch and I didn’t have to worry about driving home, and even if you aren’t a drinker and this itself doesn’t do much for you, riding a train also means you can text your friends or surf the internet while you travel, things you cannot do safely while driving an automobile. Also, consider the catharsis of not having to worry about spending money on car maintenance, car payments, or gasoline—the cost of monthly transit passes pale in comparison.

The biggest safety concern with increasingly gaudy trucks on the roads is not the trucks themselves (though they are safety concern) but the ripple effect of drivers feeling that they need to get larger cars so that they will not be run off the road. As impractical as enormous pickup trucks are, the status quo seems to be forcing smaller cars instead into obsolescence. The political solution has largely been to widen lanes and restructure roads to accommodate larger vehicles, but the vehicles just keep getting larger. I assume there is eventually a point at which the market will no longer desire massive trucks—say, once they’re the size of a standard city bus—but I also would have assumed long ago that this point would soon be reached. The safer, more practical solution would be to decrease the number of cars on the road by making mass transit feel more comfortable. It would encourage physical fitness. It would keep existing roads intact longer. It would be environmentally friendly. And in the short-term, it would be much safer. A world in which all of the largest parking lots in a city belong not to the sports stadiums but instead to park-and-rides on the city’s edge in which visitors can then absorb themselves into the far less stress-inducing car-less lifestyle would be the ideal. And even if it seems impractical, and overnight it surely is, expecting the world to survive the further proliferation of enormous car culture is arguably every bit the fantasy of turning dozens of Americans cities into New York.

Wednesday, April 12, 2023

How trading for Kurt Thomas jump-started the most fascinating rebuild in sports

 Like pretty much any city that has lost its Big Four sports team in, conservatively, the last fifty years, Seattle did not deserve to lose the Seattle SuperSonics. But while several relocated teams went to cities which seemed apathetic to their presence, the same cannot be said for Oklahoma City. Despite its relative lack of size—of the current NBA markets, only Memphis is smaller by primary statistical area—Oklahoma City enthusiastically supported the displaced New Orleans Hornets in the 2005-06 season and carried forward that devotion into the era of the Thunder. In a just world, both Seattle and Oklahoma City would have NBA teams. I understand why Seattleites would root against the Thunder; I do not, for the life of me, understand why otherwise neutral fans hold the sins of Howard Schultz against this lovely one-sport city.

That said, while Seattle didn’t deserve what happened to them, you can easily argue Oklahoma City didn’t deserve the windfall that came to them. A year before they moved to Oklahoma City, the Sonics drafted future inner-circle Hall of Famer Kevin Durant. In 2008, shortly before the Thunder came into existence, the then-technically-still-Sonics drafted future maybe-not-inner-but-certainly-still-in Hall of Famer Russell Westbrook. But sandwiched between those two selections came a lesser-known acquisition that paid dividends, and continues to pay dividends, for the Oklahoma City Thunder—the acquisition of Kurt Thomas.

Kurt Thomas, who last played in an NBA game ten years ago yesterday, never wore an Oklahoma City Thunder jersey. In fact, he only played in 42 total games for the Seattle SuperSonics. But what he was on July 20, 2007 was overpaid. God bless him and anyone who can reach this stage in life, of course, but his employer, the Phoenix Suns, didn’t want to pay him, and they were willing to give up actual assets to avoid doing so. Although the Suns did receive a 2009 second-round draft pick in sending Thomas to the Sonics, the real meat of the trade was the two first round picks they were gifting Seattle to take Thomas off their hands.

Of note, the Phoenix Suns were a good team at this point, which means two things—one, trying to clear out cap space in order to improve in the short term was defensible, and two, they expected the first round picks to be relatively late. They were right—the 2008 first-rounder that the eventual Thunder received was #24 and the 2010 first-round pick was #26. The #26 pick was used on Quincy Pondexter, who more or less had the expected NBA career of a 26th overall pick—48 career starts, a decent off-the-bench scorer, the 24thbest player of the draft by Value Over Replacement Player—though he was parlayed by the Thunder into a trade for moderately useless center Cole Aldrich and an aging Morris Peterson who played four total games for Oklahoma City, before he ever played an NBA game.

The #24 pick in 2008, however, was of tremendous value for the Thunder—Serge Ibaka. Today, Ibaka is a deep bench player for the Milwaukee Bucks, but he went on to start 413 games for the Thunder between 2010 and 2016. Although a secondary or perhaps even tertiary scorer, Ibaka was a terrific defensive player, twice leading the NBA in blocks and being named NBA All-Defensive first team in 2011-12, 2012-13, and 2013-14. By VORP, he was the 10th best player in a fairly deep 2008 draft; Basketball Reference gives him a 0.2% chance of making the Hall of Fame, which is 0.2% higher than it gives to Kurt Thomas.

Once Ibaka arrived, the Thunder took off, improving from 23-59 to 50-32. Over the next seven seasons, the Thunder had a winning record in each. In 2015-16, the 55-27 Thunder took the 73-9 Golden State Warriors to the brink of elimination, taking a 3-1 Western Conference Finals lead before the Warriors rattled off a three-game winning streak. Of course, that the Warriors would blow a 3-1 series lead of their own in the next round also had a material impact on the future of the Thunder, as well.

The biggest domino to fall for the 2016-17 Thunder came on July 4, 2016, when Kevin Durant, by far the greatest player in Oklahoma City Thunder history to that point, signed with the Golden State Warriors—plenty could be written about what unfolded over the next three seasons for them, but very little of that concerns the Thunder. But in the lead-up to Durant’s decision, the Thunder shopped Serge Ibaka, who was growing unsatisfied with his secondary role on the team. What they received, for a player who was a year away from free agency, could be described as a haul—the package was headlined by Victor Oladipo, the second overall pick from three years prior who had been something of a disappointment as far as #2 overall picks go but had established himself as a serviceable NBA shooting guard. The Thunder also received Ersan İlyasova, who spent just three games in OKC before he was flipped with a first-round pick for Jerami Grant. The Thunder also acquired the rights to #11 overall draft pick Domantas Sabonis, who spent one season in Oklahoma City before he emerged as a three-time All-Star and the 2022-23 NBA rebounding champion with the Sacramento Kings. But before you start to think of Sabonis as the one that got away for the Thunder, I ask that you table that thought for now.

Despite the nominal rebuilding taking place, 2016-17 Russell Westbrook was simply a maniac—he became the second player in NBA history to average a triple-double over the course of a season, and he didn’t do so cheaply—he scored the most points, tallied the second most assists, and even pulled down the eighth most rebounds in the NBA that season. But even with their star player going out of his mind on his way to an MVP season, the Thunder finished sixth in the Western Conference and bowed out to the Houston Rockets in the first round of the postseason. As much fun as it was to watch Russ be a one-man show, it wasn’t going to produce title-winning basketball. So the Thunder made a blockbuster.

In one of the most shocking trades in recent NBA history, the Oklahoma City Thunder acquired Paul George, a three-time third-team All-NBA player, and didn’t have to flip a single draft pick in the process. On July 6, 2017, the Thunder sent two-thirds of their Serge Ibaka return, Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis, to the Indiana Pacers straight-up for Paul George. At the time, even with George a pending free agent following the season, it seemed like robbery for the Thunder, but to the credit of Oladipo and Sabonis, they both became All-Stars in Indiana—the Pacers did not lose this trade. 

But it paid off for the Thunder—Paul George averaged 21.9 points per game in 2017-18 and earned another third-team All-NBA. But it wasn’t until after the season concluded that the Paul George OKC experiment really paid off. George reached free agency, but ultimately he re-signed with the Thunder. And in 2018-19, Paul George reached a whole new level. He averaged a career-high 28.0 PPG, a career-high 8.2 rebounds per game, and led the NBA in steals per game with 2.2. George finished third in MVP voting and cracked his first first-team all-NBA squad. The Thunder won 49 games, but for the third consecutive season, they lost in the first round of the playoffs.

And this is the part of the story where Oklahoma City Thunder Sam Presti has the greatest month in the history of sports executives.

The Thunder found themselves in a common place among modern pro sports teams—they were undeniably a good team, but they probably weren’t a great team, or at least a team capable of winning a title. Unlike in baseball or hockey, where teams regularly sneak deep into the postseason with rosters barely good enough to make the playoffs at all, the best team (or at least a team with a credible argument of being the best team) usually wins the NBA title. The Thunder had two choices—try to find a difference maker who could elevate the Thunder from good to great or start over. Their decision was made for them by a man who has never been employed by the Oklahoma City Thunder—Kawhi Leonard. In 2019, Leonard won his second NBA Finals MVP award; having helped to rejuvenate the San Antonio Spurs at the beginning of his career, he was the missing piece in the first ever title run for the Toronto Raptors. And now he was a free agent, and an extraordinarily coveted one at that.

Kawhi Leonard had his eyes set not on the Oklahoma City Thunder, but the Los Angeles Clippers—the southern California native was largely boxed out from the Lakers, who already employed LeBron James, but the opportunity to win a first title for LA’s secondary NBA team was very much on the table. But despite a very fun Clippers run in 2018-19, where a team led by Danilo Gallinari and Montrezl Harrell somehow won 48 games and took two road games in the postseason against the Kevin Durant-led Warriors, there wasn’t an obvious second banana for Kawhi. So he sought out Paul George.

Paul George was likewise a SoCal kid, but unlike the free agent Leonard, he was very much under an NBA contract. It was a very open secret that George sought a trade to the Clippers, and that Leonard signing there was contingent upon a deal getting done, and Sam Presti knew it. Because of the NBA’s maximum salary, even paying the max to Kawhi Leonard would be a relative bargain, so the Clippers could reasonably afford to overspend conventional wisdom to land Paul George, since the two transactions were linked, but for the Thunder, the Kawhi Leonard signing didn’t matter—this was a chance for a pure victory for the Thunder. And did they ever secure it. The Thunder acquired so much that I feel like I need to switch to bullet points to properly articulate it. Keep in mind that the Thunder only traded Paul George here; no other pieces went to LA. And George has played well in LA—in four seasons, he has made two All-Star Games, notched a third-team All-NBA in 2020-21, but the Clippers still have never made the NBA Finals and, perhaps more damningly, remain a clear #2 to the Lakers in Los Angeles, even though they have unquestionably been a more consistently strong team over the last decade. Much like the Brooklyn Nets, the Clippers have been built to win now and finally emerge from the shadow of the more popular if less successful other NBA team in their city; Leonard and George, guys who thrived in less prestigious NBA markets, trying to become true superstars in Los Angeles was the perfectly logical extension of this. Anyway, the assets the Thunder collected:

·        Danilo Gallinari, the Clippers’ best player in 2018-19 by VORP. He spent one successful individual year in Oklahoma City (more on that season later) before being traded for a 2025 second-round pick to the Atlanta Hawks; even if the Hawks implode by then, the second-round pick shouldn’t be a huge deal.

·        Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the 11th overall pick in the 2018 NBA Draft, started 73 games as a Clippers rookie and made second-team All-Rookie, but started to really take off in Oklahoma City. 2022-23 was his best season yet—his 31.4 points per game were fourth in the NBA, as were his 1.6 steals per game. The guard has become one of the most well-rounded players in the league and has an outside chance of making first-team All-NBA (though I think second team is more likely), and he is undisputedly the best player on the current Thunder team. Oh, and he’s also still just 24 years old.

·        A 2021 first-round draft pick via the Miami Heat, a pick traded so many times before it arrived in Oklahoma City that Danny Granger was involved in one of the trades. Simple enough—the Thunder selected Tre Mann, who is presently a backup point guard for the Thunder.

·        The Clippers’ 2022 first-round pick, which as it turns out was a lottery pick thanks to the Clippers missing the playoffs. With the #12 pick, the Thunder selected Jalen Williams, who started 62 games and averaged 14.1 points per game as a rookie. By both VORP and Win Shares, he was the second-best rookie in 2022-23. He turns 22 in two days.

·        A 2023 first-round pick swap, which allows the Thunder the superior pick between that of them or the Clippers. The Clippers made the non-play-in playoffs, so even in the unlikely event this swap gets used, it won’t be a lottery pick. Oh well, worth a shot!

·        A 2024 first-round pick from the Clippers. The Clippers have been largely competent, but Kawhi Leonard and Paul George aren’t getting any younger and they’ve traded away anything resembling a future piece in order to accommodate their star duo. The odds are this winds up being a mid-first round pick, but it’s hardly assured.

·        A 2025 first-round pick swap with the Clippers. For reasons I will detail later, I think there’s a very real chance the Thunder use this one.

·        A 2025 lottery-protected first-round pick from the Miami Heat which converts to an unprotected 2026 first-round pick if unused in 2025. This only becomes a truly spicy pick if the Heat miss the playoffs in both 2025 and 2026, and they aren’t really an organization inclined to do this too often, but even if the Thunder wind up with a mid-first, a useful piece can be grabbed.

·        A 2026 first-round pick from the Clippers. George and Leonard will be in their mid-thirties by this point.

The future assets here were obviously tantalizing for the Thunder in the future; it made sense the day the trade was made. But it also, even with Gallinari and Gilgeous-Alexander coming back, made the Thunder worse in 2019-20. Although, unlike with Durant, they got a healthy return, the Thunder found themselves in a similar situation—Russell Westbrook surrounded by question marks. But this time, Sam Presti was proactive, and six days after the Paul George trade, the Thunder sent Russell Westbrook to the Houston Rockets.

The trade made sense at the time, even if it was far less of an obvious call than the Paul George trade (either of them, really). In exchange for Westbrook, the Thunder received a 2021 top-four protected pick-swap, a top-four protected first-round pick in 2024, a 2025 top twenty protected pick swap, and a top-four protected first-round pick in 2026. But a huge part of the allure for Houston was also salary relief, as they also sent Chris Paul to Oklahoma City. Paul, though a future Hall of Famer and arguably a top-five point guard of all-time, appeared to be on one of the NBA’s worst contracts in 2019.

Ultimately, the Thunder didn’t get anything from the 2021 pick swap—the Rockets landed in the top four—and it’s impossible to know what the future holds for the later picks. But what I do know is that Chris Paul, in 2019-20, turned his career around. He became a considerably more efficient shooter and was named All-NBA (second team) for the first time in four years. In the postseason, ironically, the Thunder faced Russell Westbrook and nearly humiliated their former star, who was fine in Houston but not nearly as good as Chris Paul had become. Suddenly, Chris Paul had become not only not a trade liability, but a legitimate asset. And in the off-season, the Thunder flipped Paul to the Phoenix Suns.

You could make a case that this trade didn’t work out for OKC, and you could certainly make a case they didn’t get as much as they could have had they waited another year. The key piece for the Thunder was a first-round pick that was later used on Peyton Watson, who was traded for a 2027 first-round pick. But you can’t really argue that, broadly, the Chris Paul experiment was not a resounding success for the Thunder—not only did the Thunder acquire a ton of future pieces, but they improved in the short term as well.

Unlike the losses of Ibaka, Durant, George, and Westbrook, the Thunder could not withstand the loss of Chris Paul, a player they almost certainly never wanted in the first place. The 2020-21 Thunder finished 22-50, though on the bright side, if you’re going to be absolutely awful, it’s hard to pick a much better season than during one without fans. They didn’t hit the lottery, in a manner of speaking, only drafting at #6, but they selected Josh Giddey, an Australian wing who averaged 16.6 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 6.2 assists a night in his sophomore 2022-23 campaign—by VORP, he ranks fourth in the 2021 draft class so far. In 2022, however, their lottery luck turned around and the Thunder picked second; although Chet Holmgren missed the entire 2022-23 season, the Thunder still managed to get a legitimate Rookie of the Year campaign via Jalen Williams and, despite constant and largely unfair commentary about their supposedly egregious tanking (I would never claim they didn’t tank a little bit, merely that their recent rebuild was entirely normal by NBA standards, far less insidious than the Trust The Process-era Philadelphia 76ers, for instance), will play postseason basketball tonight.

The three best players on the 2022-23 Oklahoma City Thunder by any advanced metric (or non-advanced metric, really) were Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, and Jalen Williams. Two of these players were acquired directly via the Paul George trade, and the third was acquired in the immediate aftermath of the rebuild that said trade precipitated. The Thunder probably aren’t going to win the 2022-23 NBA title, but they will have a fresh Chet Holmgren to add to a young core and should surely be a real player in the Western Conference as soon as next year. And it’s all thanks to the Kurt Thomas trade.

Monday, February 13, 2023

The St. Louis Blues are saying the quiet part out loud, for some reason

 On Super Bowl Sunday, a day on which non-NFL sports leagues go out of their way to avoid scheduling around the biggest television event of the year, nobody would reasonably expect teams in other sports to say anything at all. The St. Louis Cardinals, for instance, tweeted happy birthday to assistant hitting coach Brandon Allen, noted that Hall of Famer Chick Hafey was born on that date in 1903, and stopped posting on social media for the day—a completely reasonable thing for a sports team that was not playing nor making transactions to do. For instance, the Chicago Blackhawks didn’t tweet at all. The Pittsburgh Penguins, a team which plays in a state with a team in the Super Bowl, tweeted a late-night game story for their Saturday night, West Coast game and then posted a link to a fan event—the kind of bland social media fodder one might expect. It probably wasn’t the highest traffic day for a hockey team, but benignly continuing about their business was the expectation of the day.

The St. Louis Blues, however, were not silent on social media on Sunday. But while they made a handful of tweets about the previous night’s game, during which they secured their first victory in 23 days after blowing a three-game lead to a team that got kicked out of their home arena days after trading one of the best half-dozen players in franchise history because they have playoff odds currently lower than the odds of them securing the #1 overall draft pick, the true attention-grabber came when they wished good luck in the Super Bowl to, and later congratulated on their victory, a team which plays its home games 241 miles away from their arena.

Although the Kansas City Chiefs are not the closest NFL team located to the Dome at America’s Center, the former home of the St. Louis Rams (that title belongs to the Indianapolis Colts, though the margin is so narrow that it could be reasonably deemed immaterial), that they became a popular choice for spurned NFL fans in St. Louis is hardly surprising—they were a reasonably nearby team, and although the St. Louis Rams and Kansas City Chiefs were ostensibly rivals, competing on six occasions during the NFL regular season for the Missouri Governor’s Cup (the Chiefs won all six meetings), the blood was never so bad that most St. Louisans took particular glee in the shortcomings of Kansas City’s NFL team.

But the arguments for St. Louisans to root against Kansas City with increased or newfound fervor were ample. In 2015, Kansas City Chiefs owner Clark Hunt was the lone vote on the NFL’s committee on Los Angeles opportunities to support the relocation of the Rams to Los Angeles, as opposed to the Chargers and Raiders, and in 2016, Hunt voted for the relocation of the Rams; before the dust had even settled, the Chiefs were already marketing themselves in St. Louis, the NFL’s equivalent to if Lee Harvey Oswald had made a move on Jacqueline Kennedy. There was a family history of this—in 1988, Clark’s father Lamar happily voted for the relocation of the St. Louis Cardinals to Phoenix. Although the Chiefs have succeeded wildly since 2016, winning the AFC West each season and amassing two Super Bowl titles plus another appearance, led in large part by Patrick Mahomes, one of the sport’s most exciting players, the culture of the Chiefs—shielding star wide receiver Tyreek Hill after multiple credible domestic violence accusations (not to mention drafting him less than four years after Jovan Belcher’s violent murder-suicide) and their repeated insistence on using Native American imagery and racist chants (the Super Bowl broadcast showed a crowd of Chiefs fans in Munich doing the Tomahawk Chop—consider, for a moment, that the franchise has managed to export racism to Munich) during an era in which both Washington’s NFL team and Cleveland’s MLB team were successfully pressured to change their nicknames, has made rooting for Kansas City a non-option for those who harbor similarly negative feelings about the Atlanta Braves, whose use of the Tomahawk Chop has received even more aggressive criticism, presumably because of the city’s proximity to the Mason-Dixon line.

Ultimately, it is not unreasonable for St. Louis sports fans to not harbor a great resentment against Clark Hunt for his votes. After all, the final vote for the Rams’ relocation was 30-2, which considering one of the 30 “yes” votes includes the franchise with over 500,000 owners (the Green Bay Packers) means there are too many grudges to potentially hold at once, and even one of the “no” votes, from the then-Oakland Raiders, was simply made so that Mark Davis could rip out of the hearts of his own fans, so hardly a sympathetic gesture (I tend to gravitate towards rooting for the Cincinnati Bengals because of Mike Brown’s far less egregious “no” vote, but it is not as though the penny-pinching failson who has shown a greater proclivity for donating money to faceless Republican politicians than to his own football team is exactly innocent). But aside from Stan Kroenke, the real estate baron and part-time NFL team owner whose franchise value increased overnight when the Rams relocated (there’s a reason Los Angeles Angels owner Arte Moreno insisted on branding his baseball team with “Los Angeles” rather than their actual home city of Anaheim), nobody profited more from the pain and suffering of St. Louis than Clark Hunt.

Third on the list of Rams relocation profiteers, however, might be the St. Louis Blues. From nearly the moment the NFL approved the removal of St. Louis’s NFL team, the Blues have marketed themselves as an alternative to the Rams. At the first St. Louis Blues home game following the relocation vote, the Blues held a ceremonial puck drop featuring St. Louis Cardinals president Bill DeWitt III and Blues owner Tom Stillman, each wearing jackets representing the other team, which received widespread media acclaim, particularly after the fans erupted into the now-familiar chant of “Kroenke sucks”. In February 2016, the Blues offered ticket and merchandise promotions to former St. Louis Rams season ticket holders. In March 2016, the Blues parlayed this jolt of attention into clinching a bid to host the 2017 NHL Winter Classic, a lucrative outdoor hockey game with over double the ticketed capacity of a typical game and with much higher ticket prices. Throughout the 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs, which saw the Blues make their deepest postseason run—to Game Six of the Western Conference Finals—in three decades, the Blues stood as the anti-Rams in ways that the St. Louis Cardinals baseball team never could. The Cardinals are ubiquitous, an international brand with clusters of fans well beyond the Greater St. Louis area; the Blues, like the Rams before them, did not have a large national or international following, but they belonged to St. Louis.

But in a more literal sense, the St. Louis Blues belong to Tom Stillman. And while Tom Stillman has demonstrated himself to be a far more palatable owner from a fan perspective than Stan Kroenke, or than most, the Blues are ultimately subject to his whims and the whims of SLB Acquisition Holdings LLC. The St. Louis Blues came to life because Chicago Black Hawks owner James D. Norris owned St. Louis Arena and wanted to earn more income from his place in the NHL by virtue of having an expansion team play there. The St. Louis Blues nearly collapsed under the weight of Ralston-Purina’s ownership, with the local company so angry that they were not permitted to relocate the franchise to Saskatoon, Saskatchewan that they refused to send representatives to the 1983 NHL Entry Draft as some sort of ill-fated protest. And three years after the Rams left St. Louis, the St. Louis Blues took $70 million in public subsidies in order to renovate Enterprise Center, a project which may indeed serve some sort of intangible good for the area but which primarily exists to make the rich richer.

To be clear, I’m not offering any suggestions of a conspiracy. While Tom Stillman and company may have secretly been excited for the marketing opportunities that came with the Rams exodus, they were not the ones who turned it into reality (while Chiefs ownership can at least be reasonably considered an accessory to the crime). But the Blues undeniably benefited. In the year following the Rams’ departure, their value increased by 45%, and it has more than doubled in the years since, outpacing increases across the National Hockey League.

Certainly, when the St. Louis Blues Twitter account posted support and congratulations to the Kansas City Chiefs, it was not done at the direct behest of ownership, nor was it when the Blues tweeted such messages to the Chiefs in 2020 and 2021. But the relationship is not reciprocated even by the Chiefs themselves, who have tagged the Blues on Twitter three total times, twice via replies (thus avoiding annoying their own fans who do not also follow the Blues, which is most, because St. Louis and Kansas City are more than three and a half hours apart) and once when they posted a link showing Blues goalie Jordan Binnington wearing a Patrick Mahomes jersey, which hardly removes the feelings of Blues subservience. When the Blues tweeted positively towards the Chiefs yesterday, the response was largely negative not because it matters if some individual social media manager cares who wins the Super Bowl but because it represents St. Louis buying into the Hunt family’s despicable strategy of segmenting heartbroken sports fans. Clark Hunt decided that St. Louis was ripe for the picking; the strategy has been plenty successful, though the Blues would suggest the strategy was far more successful than it actually was and that St. Louis is firmly, unanimously Chiefs Territory. Instead, St. Louis is a city where there are more fans of the Chiefs than of any other individual team but where there is hardly unanimity.

On June 12, 2019, the Kansas City Royals offered the lone tweet they have ever issued about the St. Louis Blues, congratulating them on their Stanley Cup victory, and most of the replies are from Kansas City fans annoyed that their favorite team is celebrating the victory of a different city. And they were right to do so—if Kansas Citians want to root for the Blues, that’s their prerogative (and unlike with regards to St. Louis and the NFL, the Blues are by far the closest NHL team to Kansas City), but the Blues are not a Kansas City team. They aren’t a Missouri team. They are a St. Louis team.

After Jackson County voters approved a tax increase to pay for $850 million in stadium renovation in 2006, the Chiefs signed a lease which will keep the team at Arrowhead Stadium (you know, the stadium named after Native American imagery since they are named the Chiefs, a reference to the city’s former white mayor) through 2031. But Kansas City’s sports teams have dangled relocation, if not out of the metropolitan area than at least to different stadiums, religiously. Persistent rumors have been that the Royals may seek a new downtown stadium (Kansas City’s shared Truman Sports Complex is located in the city’s outskirts) and that the Chiefs, like many NFL teams (Giants/Jets, Rams/Chargers, Cowboys, 49ers, Patriots, Commanders, Dolphins, Cardinals, Raiders, Bills), may seek to build a stadium in the suburbs, where ample parking revenue can be more easily found. These proposals have included ones to move the Chiefs to the Kansas side of the Kansas City Metropolitan Area, a move which, if the Chiefs cared whatsoever about their status as Missouri’s Team, would be deadly. But it isn’t, because despite what the St. Louis Blues embarrassingly seem to believe, the Kansas City Chiefs are not, and barring relocation will never be, St. Louis’s NFL team.