On Friday night, in a stinging indictment of the Big Ten Conference, supposedly one of the two top-tier conference in college football, Indiana lost to Notre Dame. In the next game, the Big Ten’s runners-up Penn State proved the superiority of the conference once and for all and demonstrated that SMU and the Atlantic Coast Conference are the true frauds, while that night, by defeating Tennessee, The Ohio State University proved that the Big Ten is superior to the Southeastern Conference, who demonstrated their superiority when runners-up Texas handily beat Clemson. In total, the only team that lost over the weekend that did not demonstrate that they should not have made the playoff was Clemson, and that was only on a technicality—if the format did not mandate five conference champions, Clemson would have been sitting at home because clearly they were not one of the twelve best teams in the country.
The purpose of the college football is nominally to determine the best team in the country, though more accurately, the purpose is to validate an organic search for the best team in the country. For most of college football history, Oregon would have been crowned national champions already. But the real purpose is to create a compelling television show. There is a reason that ESPN has produced weekly rankings specials about rankings that absolutely, positively do not matter—if the playoff committee decides that their old rankings no longer matter (they did this last season with Florida State), that’s all that matters.
There has been a lot of criticism of the College Football Playoff format, though I think that under the assumption that a playoff ought to be twelve teams, this one works out well in creating valid incentive structures throughout. Since the early 1990s, when the ranks of Division 1-A independents with a national profile was reduced pretty much just to Notre Dame, winning one’s conference is considered of major importance, and the playoff structure gives automatic first-round byes to its high-end champions while also dangling another bid to a fifth conference champion (most did not expect this bid to go to a perennial power such as Clemson in its first year). Being a strong non-conference champion gets something beneficial, though less beneficial than an outright automatic qualification to the quarterfinals—a home playoff game. Critics would try to make the case that a team like SMU was not punished for losing its conference championship game, but the reality of the situation is that because Clemson made a last-second field goal, they went from receiving a first-round bye to having a challenging matchup at Penn State which ultimately ended their season. A team like Texas, which made it to overtime of the SEC Championship Game, did not need a win to secure a playoff berth, but it did make the difference between a trip directly to the quarterfinals and the less-than-fifty-but-certainly-higher-than-zero percent chance of falling to the Clemson Tigers on their home field.
The first team to be deemed frauds last weekend was Indiana, and there were two approaches to the argument—one sensible and one borderline cruel. The latter is thumbing one’s nose at the very idea of Indiana having a viable football program and assuming they were on borrowed time. The former embraces a new reality of modern college football, particularly in the major conferences—there is a wild disparity in schedule quality even between teams in the same conference. Indiana only lost one game in the regular season, and it was a game that a college football power would ordinarily be forgiven for losing (on the road against Ohio State), but the quality of their wins was sorely lacking relative to the rest of the conference. Indiana won just one game against a team with a winning conference record, at home close against four-loss Michigan.
Indiana had a very flawed resume. This does not mean that they were not a good team, but it is completely reasonable that their one-loss schedule would not be seen as analogous to the one-loss Big Ten schedule of Penn State—the Nittany Lions defeated a 6-3 team (Illinois) and won on the road against a 5-4 team (Minnesota)—or two-loss Ohio State, which lost to the undefeated Oregon Ducks team that Indiana and Penn State avoided and which scored victories against not only Indiana and Penn State but also 6-3 Iowa.
Indiana coach Curt Cignetti told anybody who would listen that he believed Indiana deserved a better draw in the College Football Playoff—I disagreed, but with a one-loss season in a brand-name conference, I did not blame him for shooting his shot. But especially after their loss on Friday, it became more fashionable to argue that Indiana did not belong in the tournament at all. Yes, the Alabama Crimson Tide lost two more games than the Hoosiers, but they also boasted at least four wins that looked stronger than defeating Michigan—wins against Georgia, South Carolina, Missouri, and a decisive four-touchdown victory on the road against LSU. The argument against Alabama was pretty easy, though—while their seven-point loss at Tennessee could be considered a parallel to Indiana’s at Ohio State, their losses at Vanderbilt and especially at 6-6 Oklahoma by three touchdowns were a blight on their schedule.
There is a massive assumption that those who support, either from the beginning or in hindsight, Alabama over Indiana are making—that Alabama is a better team than Indiana. This is unprovable, but certainly possible. We know that Indiana lost by ten points (and this is a deceptively close margin given the overall tone of the game) at Notre Dame, but we do not know how Alabama would have fared. But the other assumption is that the purpose of the selection committee is to predict the future and not to evaluate the past. Unfortunately, there is not really a codified explanation of what the committee is supposed to do. I disagreed vehemently when the committee predicted the future (accurately) with regards to how Florida State would fare last season with quarterback Jordan Travis injured; my strong preference is to evaluate based on what has already happened. This doesn’t make the answers easier—yes, 3>1 in the loss column is a good and very easy to comprehend point, but had Alabama’s losses been at home to Georgia and at LSU and they had instead won at Vanderbilt and Oklahoma, we couldn’t really argue that a single game Alabama lost was more shameful than even Indiana’s best win. But then Alabama is a three-loss team whose best win is probably one at home against Missouri, which is also a better win than at home against Michigan but is it two losses better? These things do not have answers.
Ultimately, I think the committee got the 12-team bracket correct—I could quibble with some of the order, but I believe the four best conference champions got byes, the next four best teams got home games, and the next four best teams went on the road in the first round. And what those complaining about the lack of quality games this weekend seem to be missing is that the first round is supposed to be difficult for seeds 9 through 12. SMU suffered because of their conference championship loss. Clemson suffered because they needed a last-second field goal just to make the field in the first place. Tennessee suffered because they couldn’t win against a 3-5 SEC team in Arkansas. And Indiana suffered because in their one true test of the regular season, they failed it. Had Alabama made the playoff field, they would have faced an immense challenge—winning at Notre Dame, Penn State, Texas, or Ohio State is not easy! Alabama would have, and should have, been underdogs in any of these scenarios. So would Miami, so would Mississippi, so would South Carolina or BYU or Iowa State.
Assuming the current format remains, road teams will eventually win some playoff games. But they should not win most or even half of them, because if the games last weekend were essentially determined by random chance, it demonstrates a lack of credibility of the playoff. But because the home teams won, the remaining field is the six highest ranked teams in the country, a Boise State team whose one loss—a three-point one on the road against Oregon—is arguably the strongest in the country, and an Arizona State team that as the weakest team in the field on paper will face a challenge in Texas that they may have avoided had they themselves not lost to Texas Tech or Cincinnati.
The reason the games stunk last weekend is because the College Football Playoff committee got it right.