Tonight, a major league sports team was born via the expansion draft in the National Hockey League’s thirty-second franchise, the Seattle Kraken. Having spent countless hours dissecting this draft, today was like Christmas for me.
Overall, I think the Kraken did a good job. There is a widely held belief that the Kraken can’t hold a candle to the 2017 Vegas Golden Knights’ draft, but the Golden Knights were also not widely believed to have had a particularly good draft in the moment. A huge amount of their roster-building came not via the draft itself but via trades made adjacent to it. And NHL teams learned their lessons. Teams aren’t stupid enough to give away one-third of a conference champion’s top line so that the team will draft another third of it. I am quite certain that if this were the 2017 draft, the Colorado Avalanche would not have traded Ryan Graves for a package that, while not as good as Graves himself, is substantially more valuable than the value of simply losing Graves to Seattle.
Seattle opted to stay closer to the salary floor, which I think is a good idea because while the Kraken could have created a more talented roster, there is a reason the high-end talent was exposed in the first place. As such, the Kraken do not have a single terrible contract on their books, and while they may have an overpay or two, these are players who will be extraordinarily significant for their team. Overall, I’d give Ron Francis and company an A-minus.
Here is how I rank the picks.
30. Adam Larsson, Edmonton Oilers—Larsson is a perfectly fine defenseman who gets a bad rap because he was on the wrong end of one of the most lopsided trades in recent NHL memory—the one-for-one deal which sent future league MVP Taylor Hall to New Jersey. But this pick is nonsensical primarily for a simple reason—he’s a pending free agent. And while a week of exclusive negotiating rights with a pending free agent isn’t nothing, I believe these picks should be made only if nobody who is any good is available to draft. But Edmonton did have some intriguing players exposed—Devin Shore, a dirt-cheap two-way forward capable of playing at all three forward positions, would have been my choice. There were the likes of Tyler Benson and William Lagesson, unfulfilled prospects but effectively lottery tickets. Even if Seattle converts this pick into signing Adam Larsson, as by all accounts they are likely to do, Larsson isn’t likely to be some incredible bargain for the Kraken. I hate this pick.
29. Chris Driedger, Florida Panthers—I really like Chris Driedger, a likely pivotal part of Seattle’s goaltending rotation and a man who frequently outplayed Florida’s highly paid starter, Sergei Bobrovsky, over the last two seasons. But Driedger is a free agent—granted, one more likely to have a competitive market than Larsson. I’m disappointed Florida didn’t take a chance on Frank Vatrano, who has developed into a solid NHL scorer and at a reasonable $2.5 million price tag, or any of a host of young players—among Florida goalies alone, I’d have preferred pending RFA Sam Montembeault for the team control perspective.
28. Gavin Bayreuther, Columbus Blue Jackets—Truthfully, I prefer this pick to the hotly rumored Max Domi, who I think is quite a bit overpaid. But a 27 year-old pending UFA with just 28 games played in his career does not exactly demand exclusive negotiating rights. This would be a more roastable pick if Columbus’s expansion lists weren’t so dire (I ended up going with Dean Kukan for mine, a player I admittedly don’t think much of), but even hoping to turn Kole Sherwood into something would have been a preferable option to Bayreuther.
27. Brandon Tanev, Pittsburgh Penguins—At least Tanev isn’t a UFA, but given his contract situation, Seattle might prefer that. Not that $3.5 million for each of the next four years is exactly an albatross, but Tanev is a forward who has never reached 15 goals nor 30 points in a season. His production is not where a player with his salary should be, and while Seattle is limited by the rules of the draft in terms of number of non-contracted players (RFAs and pending UFAs) they may select, I would have gladly taken one of those spots up for Zach Aston-Reese, a younger and considerably cheaper option who could have been an intriguing third line-ish forward.
26. Jamie Oleksiak, Dallas Stars—Here is the pending UFA I hate the least. The gigantic defenseman is a solid player, but most importantly, once Dallas convinced Ben Bishop to waive his no-move clause and thus taking Anton Khudobin off the board for the Kraken, the Stars had one of the worst collections of unprotected players in the league. I would have taken Tanner Kero, but life is too short to be too outraged about not taking a near-29 year-old forward with 13 NHL points since the last expansion draft.
25. Kurtis MacDermid, Los Angeles Kings—He’s a fine enough player—a cheap defenseman who can play on either side of the blue line. But the Kings had one of my favorite forwards available in Andreas Athanasiou, a former 30-goal scorer who is still putting up decent production and made just $1.2 million last season and remains in restricted free agency. But I’m probably higher on Athanasiou than most of his non-relatives. MacDermid isn’t bad at all.
24. John Quenneville, Chicago Blackhawks—Because he’s cousins with (I thought until very recently that he was the son of) former Blackhawks coach Joel Quenneville, John got a lot more attention than his meager production suggested. And he’s a pending UFA. But while I don’t think Quenneville is a great pick, the Blackhawks did not provide much help to the Kraken. I’m only ranking Quenneville this far from the basement because they wisely avoided selecting the overpaid Calvin De Haan or Nikita Zadorov. I would’ve probably taken a goalie—my preference would have been Malcolm Subban, for his second expansion team dalliance—but the Kraken at least avoided the potential landmines.
23. Tyler Pitlick, Arizona Coyotes—Pitlick has only reached double-digit goals once and twenty points twice. Is the nearly thirty year-old winger worth $1.75 million? I don’t think so, but I’m willing to listen. For months, it seemed like Adin Hill (who was eventually traded to San Jose) would be the pick here, but I still think Seattle should’ve gone with Christian Fischer, who is younger, cheaper, and has already had higher highs in the NHL despite being just twenty-four.
22. Morgan Geekie, Carolina Hurricanes—Credit to the Kraken for not doing the silly “draft Dougie Hamilton for the negotiating rights” gambit that many suggested—Carolina has far too many good options to throw a pick away on that. And Geekie is young and a well-regarded prospect. But Jake Bean would’ve been my pick in a heartbeat. A 13th overall pick just five years ago, Bean has been limited in his opportunities to play given Carolina’s robust defense core, and the 23 year-old could’ve grown into something special as a bottom-pairing lefty defenseman alongside Seattle’s veteran presence in the position.
21. Joey Daccord, Ottawa Senators—His numbers have been rough in the NHL, but the 24 year-old goalie is cheap and it’s not like Ottawa is overflowing with players that a team would want. I had them taking Anton Forsberg, who is older but probably a little better, but I totally understand, given that neither goalie would play much, wanting to go with the higher upside player.
20. Haydn Fleury, Anaheim Ducks—I was intrigued by Kevin Shattenkirk, notably older and more expensive but certainly more productive, but I can’t argue too vociferously against the former seventh overall pick. Fleury has been a bit underwhelming in the NHL, but he is still just twenty-five years old, and it’s hard to argue that he doesn’t have upside. And with just a $1.3 million salary in 2020-21, it’s not as though the team is digging itself into a hole.
19. Carsen Twarnyski, Philadelphia Flyers—The Flyers were one of the more intriguing teams in this draft because they exposed a trio of accomplished but highly paid players—James Van Riemsdyk, Jakub Voracek, and the guy I would’ve taken, Shayne Gostisbehere. But it is clear that Seattle is going low-risk, and as such, a 23 year-old who makes the league minimum but has one career NHL point is ideologically consistent. A pick like this belongs firmly in the middle of any ranking—we know exactly what they are doing. It just isn’t very fun.
18. Jordan Eberle, New York Islanders—Is Eberle overpaid? Maybe a little--$5.5 million isn’t exactly cheap. But while Eberle has dropped off in production a little bit from his Edmonton Oilers days, and it’s not like the 31 year-old is exactly likely to take a step forward, a guy who has never scored fewer than 16 goals in an NHL season should be a welcome addition to the top six for an expansion team. Even if he’s a little overpaid, this won’t be as big of a blow for a team that probably shouldn’t be pressing against the salary cap over the remaining three years of his contract. I would’ve taken Andy Greene, who is ancient but still productive and very inexpensive, but this is admittedly a far more fun pick.
17. Alexander True, San Jose Sharks—This is a team so bereft of young talent that they voluntarily protected Brent Burns. In the end, Seattle did the right thing, selecting the large twenty-four year-old forward who makes peanuts and will not demand big minutes while the Kraken are still trying to figure out how good True actually is. Plus, he played junior hockey in Seattle, which is a thing that apparently matters. Ryan Donato, who is better but more expensive, was really the only other option.
16. Kole Lind, Vancouver Canucks—He’s 22, cheap, Canucks people seem to be high on Lind’s AHL production, and while I might’ve taken a shot on Jake Virtanen to have a bounce-back season, Kole Lind is the low risk option, and God knows Ron Francis is avoiding risks whenever possible. It’s fine. (Why yes, my middle section is going to include some brief summations. These are the least interesting picks. You can scan along if you want, it’s fine)
15. Nathan Bastian, New Jersey Devils—A decent prospect at 23, Bastian is a relatively strong choice given the mediocrity of his organization. And not that I expected the Seattle Kraken to jump in on P.K. Subban or anything unless the Devils compensated them heavily to do so, but I am still tempted to give Seattle some bonus points for not doing something crazy. I liked Scott Wedgewood, but this was my backup pick.
14. Mark Giordano, Calgary Flames—Here we go. The Calgary Flames lose their captain and a former Norris Trophy winner, and the Kraken presumably have their first captain. At $6.75 million, Giordano is certainly not cheap, but I would argue that he is not overpaid given that the 37 year-old has remained a very good, if no longer elite, defenseman. The drawback is that the Kraken probably don’t need a Mark Giordano for his remaining season under contract, but the positive is that if the Kraken aren’t very good, Giordano could be a very intriguing trade candidate and could easily bring back more value than the typical expansion pick is worth. It was going to either be Giordano or Oliver Kylington, and Calgary went with the far splashier route.
13. Will Borgen, Buffalo Sabres—I don’t know if Will Borgen is any good. But he’s a very low-risk pick from the worst team in the NHL, and despite the likely event that Will Borgen never does anything of consequence for the Seattle Kraken, this is still the right, if extremely dull, pick.
12. Joonas Donskoi, Colorado Avalanche—Unfortunately for the Kraken, the Avalanche did a great job of preparing for this draft, shipping off Ryan Graves and convincing Erik Johnson to waive his no-move clause so that this team’s core could be preserved. But they are still a loaded team and thus the Avalanche were bound to lose a good player, and Donskoi qualifies. At $3.9 million for each of the next two seasons, he should be a top-six forward for the Kraken—in each of the last four seasons, Donskoi has scored at least 14 goals and no fewer than 31 points. I might’ve gone with a cheaper player, such as defenseman Jacob MacDonald, but I can’t argue too much against Donskoi, a player with far more value to the Kraken than to the Avalanche.
11. Dennis Cholowski, Detroit Red Wings—I truly can’t believe Seattle got a player this solid from Detroit. A first-round pick in 2016, Cholowski has garnered second-pairing minutes for the Red Wings, and while his plus/minus stats aren’t great, this is practically a job requirement for Detroit. Cholowski is probably more of a bottom pairing or even a healthy scratch for Seattle, but for a league minimum guy from one of the league’s worst teams, that’s a pretty solid return.
10. Yanni Gourde, Tampa Bay Lightning—Consider Tampa Bay protected four defensemen, and thus could only protect four forwards, there was no shortage of options, and Gourde is the best of the bunch. Gourde will instantly be the #1 center for the Kraken, and there are a number of existing NHL teams whose top center isn’t as good as Gourde, who scored 17 goals and 36 points in 56 games for the Stanley Cup champion Lightning last season. My only real gripe here is that Seattle “only” got Gourde—while he’s a better player than Tyler Johnson, the Kraken could’ve convinced Tampa Bay to throw them a pick or two and come out even better (or perhaps even threaten to take Pat Maroon and thus deprive Tampa Bay of desperately-needed salary relief).
9. Jared McCann, Toronto Maple Leafs—Because the Maple Leafs obsessed with protecting defensemen, they left some strong forwards available. It really came down to draft McCann, Alex Kerfoot, or go cheap, but the Kraken correctly picked this as a point to draft a player with an actual salary. At just under $3 million last season, McCann is a bargain of a center with a goal scoring touch. Along with Gourde, on paper, the Kraken have stronger centers than the Vegas Golden Knights had following their expansion draft, and if one becomes their William Karlsson, it wouldn’t be too shocking.
8. Calle Jarnkrok, Nashville Predators—A veteran who was a contributor to Nashville’s run to the Stanley Cup Finals in 2017, Jarnkrok is a roughly half a point-per-game scorer who provides solid depth scoring. He is only under contract for one more season, but at just $2 million, Jarnkrok could be a great trade chip at the 2022 trade deadline.
7. Cale Fleury, Montreal Canadiens—In keeping with the rule of thumb “always draft guys named Fleury in the expansion draft”, the Kraken snatched Haydn’s younger brother, and while Cale didn’t produce a ton in his 41 NHL games, he’s cheap and only 22 and maybe will benefit from playing with his brother. But most importantly, Seattle resisted what would have been a potentially fatal mistake by not drafting Carey Price. The constant “he could be their Marc-Andre Fleury” takes didn’t scare the front office (note: Vegas didn’t select Fleury with a great amount of joy—Pittsburgh paid them to take him) and they deserve credit for their selective boringness.
6. Vince Dunn, St. Louis Blues—The Blues dangled Vladimir Tarasenko, but Seattle wisely opted for Vince Dunn, a still-young offensive defenseman who will surely get middle-pairing minutes behind Mark Giordano. Because the Blues tend to obsess with protecting their biggest names rather than their best values, there were plenty of lower-tier and intriguing options such as Niko Mikkola or Jake Walman, the higher-end Dunn was the smart, higher-upside pick.
5. Carson Soucy, Minnesota Wild—Minnesota moved Heaven, Earth, and Ryan Suter to protect Matt Dumba, who for a while looked like an automatic Kraken pick, but Seattle did still take a really good defenseman in Carson Soucy. Not Dumba-level, but Soucy has been a plus-minus monster (it’s a dumb stat but most of these guys very much are not) and had a career-best season in 2020-21. Minnesota didn’t have a realistic choice but to leave Soucy exposed, and it was very much to Seattle’s benefit.
4. Colin Blackwell, New York Rangers—The undersized center isn’t as exciting as some of the other names in this expansion draft, but he checks just about every box one can fathom for the Seattle Kraken. He’s cheap, with a league minimum salary for next season. He’s under contract, which is a consideration when it comes to expansion drafting—Seattle was required to take 20 such players, and UFAs don’t count to the total. And he’s coming off a breakthrough season with the Rangers, with 12 goals in 47 games. He is a high-upside player and comes with no downsides. An excellent pick.
3. Vitek Vanecek, Washington Capitals—Under the right circumstances, I could talk myself into Conor Sheary for the Kraken, but contextually, Vitek Vanecek makes a ton of sense. A late bloomer who debuted last season in the NHL at 25, Vanecek was rock-solid in goal for Washington, with a 2.69 GAA and .908 save percentage on his way to 21 wins in 36 starts. He could be an aberration, but he could also be a low-cost member of an intriguing goaltender tandem with Chris Driedger.
2. Mason Appleton, Winnipeg Jets—The Jets were not a great team, so I don’t really understand how they could possibly fit Mason Appleton into a protection list. At $900,000, the 25 year-old forward had a breakthrough 2020-21, with 12 goals and 25 points. And he’s named Appleton and he’s going to be playing in the state of Washington! George Lucas clearly invented this transaction.
1. Jérémy Lauzon, Boston Bruins—I love this pick. Love it, love it, love it. He’s a young defenseman on the rise, he’s cheap but still qualifies as having an NHL contract, and the advanced analytics are high on his defensive acumen. Lauzon is the exact kind of depth players that allows great NHL teams to compete for titles by being solid contributors at such a low price. And while the Kraken won’t be that, this is a good start.
