Vladimir Tarasenko ranks fifth in St. Louis Blues history in goals, tenth in points, and ninth in Point Shares (a non-positionally specific statistic; among forwards, he ranks fourth, behind Brett Hull, Bernie Federko, and Pavol Demitra). In his prime, one of the richer eras in St. Louis Blues history, he was nearly a point-per-game player who perennially led the Blues in goals, including in 2018-19, when the Blues lifted their first Stanley Cup. He is a candidate for having his number retired by the franchise and is certainly among the franchise’s greatest contributors.
At 29, Vladimir Tarasenko is not quite old by hockey standards,
but he is at the age when players, particularly players who rely heavily on
speed, tend to decline. This is exacerbated by injuries—over the last two
seasons, Tarasenko has played in just 42 games between the regular season and
postseason. Since suffering a shoulder injury on October 24, 2019, Tarasenko
has played in just 32 games, and while 6 goals and 16 points isn’t terrible, it is certainly a far cry from
his pre-injury production.
It would be naïve not to at least consider the possibility
that Tarasenko is damaged goods at this point. Perhaps this is not a Cam Neely
situation, where devastating injuries force a superstar right winger out of the
NHL at 30, but fearing a Dany Heatley situation—where his career continues on
but he is merely a depth forward rather than the goal-scoring superstar of his
younger years—is reasonable. He does still occasionally show flashes of
greatness—Tarasenko did, after all, score two goals in what may end up being
his final game in a St. Louis Blues sweater—so I’m not unreservedly giving up
on the guy, but I’m also not willing to say that he is going to snap back into
his old self at the drop of a hat.
We don’t know what the future holds for Vladimir Tarasenko
in terms of production, but we do know that, at $7.5 million for the next two
seasons, he is, along with Ryan O’Reilly (who had more points-per-game in 2020-21
than in any other season of his career), the highest paid player on the Blues. This
isn’t baseball, where we can chalk up his high salary to the old “it’s not my
money” principle—while I’m happy that money will go to Tarasenko rather than to
decent-by-billionaire-standards-but-still-plenty-wealthy-so-let’s-not-valorize-the-guy-too-much
owner Tom Stillman, the existence of a fairly rigid salary cap means that
Vladimir Tarasenko’s $7.5 million also represents an opportunity cost. If the
Blues didn’t have to pay his salary, that money would instead go to somebody
else.
The hot rumor, which initially seemed like a pipe dream but
would actually be perfectly manageable under the salary cap with Tarasenko off
the books, is that the Blues are going to pursue Ryan O’Reilly’s old Colorado
Avalanche teammate Gabriel Landeskog. Over their careers, Vladimir Tarasenko
has been a superior player to Gabriel Landeskog—they have the same number of
career goals, but Tarasenko has done so in 156 fewer games (the result of injuries
and the fact that, despite being a year older than Landeskog, he debuted in the
NHL a year later), and Tarasenko has edges in points per game and total career
point shares. But in terms of recent track record, it’s no contest. The former
(I guess still technically current?) Avalanche captain has outscored Tarasenko
in each of the last three seasons, including Tarasenko’s healthy 2018-19, and totaled
20 goals and 52 points in 54 games last year. He was a crucial piece of
arguably hockey’s best line, along with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen (I’d
probably go with the Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron, and David Pastrnak line,
but it’s a worthy #2), and his projected salary going forward isn’t far off of
what Tarasenko is currently making.
Of course, for this to happen, the Blues would need to part
ways with Vladimir Tarasenko, who has a no-trade clause but who has reportedly
asked for a trade (as an aside, I am perfectly okay with him doing so and
consider there to be a major
difference between “player asks for a trade” and “player demands a trade and
acts like a malcontent until he gets his way”—this is why I find Anthony Davis
of the Los Angeles Lakers fine and James Harden of the Brooklyn Nets obnoxious).
The reports of his discontent in St. Louis had the initial effect of exciting
me that the Blues would do something I have already lobbied for them to do—leave
Tarasenko exposed in next week’s Expansion Draft. While Tarasenko does have a
no-trade clause, this differs from a no-move clause, which would require the
Blues to protect Tarasenko from being selected by the Seattle Kraken. While
this is occasionally framed as “the Blues would lose Tarasenko for nothing”,
that’s not really the case, as Seattle is going to have to draft a Blues player
regardless. In reality, the Blues would be losing Tarasenko in lieu of losing
Oskar Sundqvist or Ivan Barbashev or Vince Dunn or some league-minimum depth
guy—maybe that still doesn’t sound like a good deal to you, but it isn’t nothing.
But if what Jeremy Rutherford suggested on 101 ESPN
yesterday is true, that the Boston Bruins might be willing to part with one of
two young depth forwards—Jake DeBrusk or Trent Frederic—and their first-round
pick (#21) in next weekend’s NHL Entry Draft, then that changes everything. The
Blues should make that trade immediately.
Jake DeBrusk is an intriguing player. He has had a rough
couple seasons, but in 2018-19, he was a 27-goal scorer for the Bruins, and at
24, he is a player who is in theory just entering his prime. At $3.675 million,
DeBrusk makes less than half of what Tarasenko makes, and while that number may
prove to be a little on the high side if he continues on his 2020-21 trajectory—just
14 points in 41 games—it also does not come with any required commitment beyond
next year, as he is still in restricted free agency. Though if given the
choice, I would rather have Trent Frederic. Just 23, the St. Louis native
(since you’re going to ask me—DeSmet) hasn’t had anywhere close to DeBrusk’s
NHL production and has been more of a fourth-line type, but he has provided solid
defensive output and is scheduled to make just $1.05 million for each of the
next two seasons—I am not at all concerned about paying him Kyle Clifford money
to be a younger version of Kyle Clifford.
This trade wouldn’t really impact the Blues’ Expansion Draft
strategy in any meaningful way, because whether the acquisition was DeBrusk or
Frederic, he would almost certainly be immediately exposed to the Seattle
Kraken. And if the Kraken took said player (most mock drafts I’ve seen have
them taking Vince Dunn; I am holding out hope that Doug Armstrong is smarter
than this and instead exposes Torey Krug, whose $6.5 million price tag for the
next six years of his thirties would absolutely scare off Ron Francis from
selecting him), then the Blues essentially got a first-round pick for Vladimir
Tarasenko and didn’t have to lose somebody
in the expansion draft. And this would be a massive victory for the Blues. A
#21 overall pick isn’t an insignificant asset for a team to have—it may not
allow you to draft a Connor McDavid, but it’s just one pick shy of where the
Blues selected Robert Thomas. In recent years, it has garnered such solid NHL
contributors as Filip Chytil, Colin White, and Our Old Friend Robby Fabbri. And
it would give the Blues $7.5 million in cap space—in addition to the $14.35
million in cap space being shed with the contract expirations of Tyler Bozak,
Mike Hoffman, and Jaden Schwartz, the Blues have an intriguing opportunity to reinvigorate
their forward group on the fly.
If the Blues do opt to protect Vladimir Tarasenko, I am
going to convince myself that this is Doug Armstrong exhibiting patience once
again. In 2017, protecting enforcer Ryan Reaves over David Perron, a productive
offensive player who had committed the mortal sin of “having a bad few weeks at
the end of the last season”, seemed like malpractice, but it seemed a whole lot
more defensible when it turned out that Armstrong had, somehow, convinced the
Pittsburgh Penguins to trade him Oskar Sundqvist and the first-round pick that
turned into Klim Kostin for Reaves and a second. Maybe the Bruins want to wait
until the Seattle Kraken draft their team so that they wouldn’t be forced to
protect Tarasenko. Either way, it does seem like a matter of if and not when the
Blues and Tarasenko part ways. And if a young forward and a first-round pick
comes back in return, the Blues will have won the trade in a landslide.
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