NOTE: This is not a blog post in any traditional sense of the word. This is just a way to post a long question that would otherwise require an obnoxious number of tweets.
Let's say that Bud Selig, about to end his tenure as MLB commissioner and ravaged by guilt, makes a bombshell confession: A conspiracy to prevent Barry Bonds from breaking Hank Aaron's all-time home run record which in turn is now keeping Barry Bonds from reaching the Hall of Fame.
Bud Selig is the former owner of the Milwaukee Brewers and is known to have a close relationship with Hank Aaron, the great Milwaukee baseball icon. Under this hypothetical, which I cannot stress enough has no basis in reality, Bud Selig became alarmed that the great record of the terrific baseball ambassador Hank Aaron would be threatened by Barry Bonds, a frigid and generally unlikable personality. And as such, around the time of Ken Caminiti and Jose Canseco making their confessions of steroid use, Selig and MLB planted evidence that Barry Bonds used steroids--connections to BALCO, whispers of improprieties, etc. Mind you that MLB is not creating or in any way affecting Barry Bonds's on-field performance--he is still putting up his 762 career home runs and absurd walk rates and what have you. The purpose of the conspiracy was to force Barry Bonds to wilt under pressure while chasing 755 and it did not, though the cloud of steroid suspicion remains to this day.
Now, to recap, we now know that the evidence surrounding Barry Bonds was cooked--the only reason we now have to suspect Barry Bonds did steroids is that he hit a bunch of home runs and he physically grew. But nothing tangibly connecting him to PEDs in any way exists. He has the exact same statistics that he has now and he was still playing in an era in which PEDs were rampant--we just don't have any strong reason to believe that he was one of the people doing PEDs.
What percentage of votes does Barry Bonds get for the Hall of Fame in 2015? Does this percentage change if we can somehow amend the story to include evidence that somehow proves a negative and that Barry Bonds definitively did NOT do steroids?
Sunday, July 27, 2014
Tuesday, July 15, 2014
Audio Johnapedia 41--John and Gabe revisit their stupid preseason MLB picks
Eh, just follow the link. This is mostly just for accounting purposes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v_t8MQC0fjE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v_t8MQC0fjE
Saturday, July 5, 2014
John's 2014 MLB All-Stars
By request, I created my own MLB All-Star teams. I was asked to judge from a "reward the best first half" perspective--I have no particular ideological bias towards this or towards the "pick who you think is the best player" school of thought. This isn't an explainer--if anybody has anything specifically to ask or just comment upon, I welcome it. I just don't feel like saying "he's good" in 68 different ways. With the bench and non-starting pitchers, I listed alphabetically because I didn't spend a ton of time differentiating guys unless they were on the bubble.
American League
Starting Lineup:
RF Jose Bautista
CF Mike Trout
2B Ian Kinsler
1B Edwin Encarnacion
DH Victor Martinez
LF Alex Gordon
3B Josh Donaldson
C Salvador Perez
SS Erick Aybar
SP Felix Hernandez
Bench:
C: Yan Gomes, Derek Norris
1B: Jose Abreu, Miguel Cabrera
2B: Jose Altuve, Robinson Cano
SS: Ben Zobrist (on the ballot as 2B but is a capable SS)
3B: Adrian Beltre, Lonnie Chisenhall, Kyle Seager
OF: Adam Jones, Brandon Moss
SP: Yu Darvish, Corey Kluber, Jon Lester, David Price, Max Scherzer, Masahiro Tanaka
RP: Dellin Betances, Sean Doolittle, Greg Holland, Andrew Miller, Glen Perkins, Koji Uehara
National League
Starting Lineup:
LF Andrew McCutchen
SS Troy Tulowitzki
1B Paul Goldschmidt
RF Giancarlo Stanton
C Jonathan Lucroy
DH Yasiel Puig
CF Carlos Gomez
3B Todd Frazier
2B Dee Gordon
SP Clayton Kershaw
Bench:
C: Evan Gattis, Devin Mesoraco
1B: Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo
2B: Daniel Murphy, Chase Utley
SS: Jhonny Peralta, Hanley Ramirez
3B: Matt Carpenter, Anthony Rendon
OF: Billy Hamilton, Hunter Pence
SP: Johnny Cueto, Zack Greinke, Ian Kennedy, Stephen Strasburg, Julio Teheran, Adam Wainwright
RP: Aroldis Chapman, Steve Cishek, Zach Duke, Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, Pat Neshek
Monday, June 30, 2014
Mr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Tim McCarver
When it was announced in December that
Tim McCarver, seemingly fresh off of the conclusion of a three-and-a-half
decade career as a baseball broadcaster, would be working as a color
commentator for thirty St. Louis Cardinals games in 2014 on Fox Sports Midwest,
I was less than ecstatic. The first World Series I can actively remember
watching was in 1998: With the exception of 1999, during which commentary was
provided by legendary broadcaster
Joe Morgan, Tim McCarver has been a constant presence throughout the most
important baseball games of every season of my baseball fandom. And when I
heard that Tim McCarver would now be broadcasting games in a capacity which
would actually increase my own exposure to him, I felt a bit like Michael
Corleone in The Godfather Part III.
Just when I thought I was out, they pulled me back in.
But in a shocking turn of events, Tim
McCarver has grown on me.
Now, let me be very clear about
something: I am not claiming that Tim McCarver is a great announcer. But after
hearing him broadcast on FSM, rather than during significant nationally
televised games, it seems as though McCarver has, at 72, found his niche.
A big part of my evolution on McCarver
is the context of the games which he is calling. Which is to say he is not
being tasked with calling World Series games, during which malapropisms about alleged doubles that are actually
triples are aggravating. And fans who criticized McCarver’s verbal flubs in
this case were justified—it’s well within reason to expect a higher level of
analysis (or in this case, simply accurate analysis) if you are watching a
vitally important playoff game. But in the earlier stages of the season, it has
been less of a problem. Not that I particularly enjoy the mistakes, but I can
live with them, because it means that McCarver’s strengths are able to shine.
Even his most ardent critics can concede
one thing about Tim McCarver—he is an overwhelmingly likable person. Even if you
detest his broadcasting, it is not as though you have some kind of personal
vendetta against him. It takes a man very comfortable in his own skin, a man
with some sort of perspective on life, to release an
album of standards while in the midst of a high-profile career broadcasting
baseball. And as much as we all may love the baseball season, you would be
hard-pressed to find somebody who did not find it to be at least somewhat
interminable.
You cannot, as a fan, treat every game
with the passion of a playoff game. You wouldn’t be able to survive. In the
NFL, you can pull it off—the worst team in league history lost 16 games. The
best team in MLB history under the current schedule format lost 46 games. A
little bit of serenity isn’t just preferable—it’s necessary. And Tim McCarver
offers a fresh set of anecdotes to sprinkle throughout these dog days of
summer. It is an inherent thing working against Rick Horton and Al Hrabosky:
All of their best stories have already been told on FSM airwaves over the years.
And rather than simply citing an accomplished Major League Baseball career as
an open-and-shut case for why you should listen to what he has to say, McCarver
is self-deprecating and authentic. He is of the Bob Uecker School of Ex-Jock Broadcasting—which
is ironic, since he was actually an accomplished player who put up nearly six
wins above replacement for a World Series champion.
The era of uniformly beloved broadcasters
is nearly over. There’s Vin Scully and that’s it. Jack Buck, Ernie Harwell, Curt
Gowdy, Harry Caray, and Harry Kalas are all gone. That Tim McCarver is not an
immortally great announcer is an excessive grievance. All we can ask is that,
for three hours during a long baseball season, a broadcaster allows us to enjoy
ourselves. And so far, FSM’s rookie broadcaster has done just fine.
Wednesday, June 25, 2014
An Analysis of Purple Rain via Baseball
Thirty years ago today, American rock music reached its peak when Prince and the Revolution, a regrettably short-lived band fronted by the ubiquitous multi-instrumentalist megastar Prince, released Purple Rain. No album produced by an American artist before or after this album has been as great.
Certainly, some will decline to categorize Purple Rain as a rock album because of its many non-rock influences (dance, gospel, R&B, funk, soul, even a little bit of folk in there for good measure), but it is precisely because Prince did not feel obliged to fit his work into an easy digestible genre that he was able to write and perform an album which holds up after hundreds of listens and which has stood the test of time like few others. The most frequent album of comparison to Purple Rain is one of the few albums ever made to have sold more copies than it--Michael Jackson's Thriller. But whereas MJ's blockbuster, released a mere 19 months before Prince's, has an overproduced and dated track for every "Billie Jean", Purple Rain sounds like it could have been released at just about any point over the last thirty years. In fact, if I had to compile a list of the nine best tracks from these two nine-track albums, I'd go with "Billie Jean" and eight Prince songs.
But that's enough of my general Prince adoration. There's plenty of tributes to this album out there. What I like to do is to make completely preposterous comparisons, and that's what I'm going to do here. It occurred to me today, while listening to Purple Rain, that the album is strangely like a baseball lineup. Okay, let me explain. Unlike in football, for example, where there are enormous differences between players of different positions, baseball players all play within what is pretty much the same general framework but there are still noticeable differences at play. Much as Purple Rain is nine songs united by the same spirit but still quite different in structure and overall sound, baseball operates in a similar vein. So here are some comparisons, for those of you unfamiliar with the album or the sport (because I'm sure people who don't know this album will be ALL OVER this).
1. Let's Go Crazy--"Let's Go Crazy" is a straight-forward rocker, but one which has everything you should want to have in a great rock song. It was a #1 hit on the pop charts and features two of the most blistering electric guitar solos on Earth--how this isn't a mainstay on classic rock radio is probably the best argument in the world that unless your name is Jimi Hendrix (and your band is predominantly white British guys), artists of color are artificially blocked from the playlists. But the song has it all--it's fast, it hits you hard, and particularly in the final thirty seconds or so, it is ridiculously flashy. And that is why the baseball equivalent is...

Mike Trout. The only flaw in "Let's Go Crazy" is the admittedly silly spoken-word intro, which is a bit similar to the opening track on Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band in that it *seems* to be setting up a high concept but doesn't even a little bit. Consider this the equivalent to Trout's banal Twitter account.
2. Take Me With U--This is a nice, fundamentally solid pop song. A late-run single, this song would be a low-level hit at any point in history: It's just too nice and too happy and too innocuous to not be. This isn't really a compliment nor an insult--keep in mind I do *like* the song. I just don't think it's anybody's favorite song on the album. If this is your favorite song on the album, you probably didn't care much for the album.

Meet Ben Zobrist. Like "Take Me With U", Zobrist is predicated on reliability--he is a consistent player most notable for his versatility rather than for being a superstar. Also, just as "Take Me With U" is unnecessarily a duet with Apollonia Kotero, Ben Zobrist is also part of an unnecessary duet--his Twitter account, which he shares with his wife, because apparently Ben Zobrist is of the belief that once you get married, you are no longer your own autonomous person.
3. The Beautiful Ones--The first two-thirds of this song is, frankly, pretty boring. It's a piano ballad that is more or less in the mold of a Thriller ballad (think "Human Nature"). But then, in the third act, Prince cranks up his vocals and LOSES HIS DAMN MIND. Every single word he utters in this song from "What's it gonna be, baby?" onward makes the hair on the back of my neck rise to action and bludgeons my feels. I suspect the only reason this song isn't the biggest karaoke song in the world is because nobody that isn't Prince Rogers Nelson can pull it off.

Like "The Beautiful Ones", Chris Carpenter's career started out pretty boring. It just kind of...was. Nothing you'd give a second thought to. And then, as seen above, Chris Carpenter lost his mind and became, in his own strange way, a legend.
4. Computer Blue--It didn't even dawn on me until after, I don't know, probably a couple hundred times hearing this song that the guitar is awesome in it. That's because, as is typical of many Prince songs, the guitar isn't really front and center. His virtuosity is different from that of the Steve Vai or Joe Satriani, dudes-loitering-at-Guitar-Center rock, in that it is often buried in the mix for the sake of the song's overall quality. But make no mistake--it's Prince's immense talents that make this song what it is.

Baseball fans have gotten to a point of at least knowing who Josh Donaldson is but not quite realizing just how good he is. It's like how people will make lists of the greatest guitarists of all-time and still put Angus Young or something above Prince, who gets left in the honorable mentions. But just as Josh Donaldson is a kind of boring, great defensive third baseman (he doesn't have the highlights of a Manny Machado but makes every play he should and positions himself to go beyond that), Prince's "Computer Blue" seems to fall by the wayside.
5. Darling Nikki--Not a single but perhaps the most historically significant song off the album, it was "Darling Nikki" that inspired Tipper Gore to form the Parents Media Research Council. And with reason--a song with lyrics as dirty as these doesn't usually end up on an album that goes platinum thirteen times. But beyond the words is a funky bit of hard rock. When Nine Inch Nails frontman Trent Reznor says he was inspired by Prince, I feel like this song had to be a big part of the reason. The claustrophobia and sexual angst exhibited by the feel of the music ends up saying more than the literal verbiage used.

Carlos Martinez, like the 5'2 Prince, has an awful lot of power in his small frame. You don't look at the guy and think he will fire a fastball around 100 MPH, and you don't see Prince and think industrial rock riffs, but that's just what you get. Also, sexual references.
6. When Doves Cry--This is Prince's biggest career hit and when you think about it, it makes not a damn bit of sense. The song starts with a wild guitar solo and then has another short guitar solo three or four minutes later, with zero guitar in the interim. There is no bass. The song is essentially an exercise in minimalism; it's arguably the weirdest song on an album that, while popular, wasn't exactly afraid to do its own thing.

Hunter Pence barely looks like a human being playing baseball. He has a weird, awkward stance and his swing looks unnatural and yet...he's one of the better hitters in baseball. You do you, Hunter.
7. I Would Die 4 U--Confession: This is my least favorite song on the album. It's not even that I think it's bad: It just feels so disappointing. Prince delivers vocally and he certainly is taking a stab at lyrical profundity--the song just can't live up to the expectations left when you consider that the three singles which preceded it had peaked at #1, #1, and #2 on the charts.

Cameron Maybin is a perfectly fine Major League Baseball player. That's just what he is. If you look at him in the context of Earth, he's a successful person. Not many people play Major League Baseball, let alone make successful careers out of it. But in 2008, Maybin was the #7 prospect in baseball. #8 was Clayton Kershaw. With the weight of expectations comes an objectively unfair standard by which we judge people and by which we judge songs.
8. Baby I'm a Star--God love Prince. You see, I see no reason to deny the popular perception that he is a raging egomaniac because, well, he is. He absolutely is. But I don't mind. It can actually be quite endearing when a guy backs it up. And on "Baby I'm a Star", Prince is leading The Revolution on a quest to show off everything they've got. Play spectacular guitar, talk about how great you are, go ahead and give your weirdo keyboard player who for some reason always wears scrubs his own little segment. It's all fun.

Carlos Gomez is baseball's embodiment of fun. I was going to just go ahead and talk about his bat flips and his trolling of Brian McCann and his use of Fun Baseball tenants like stealing bases and spectacular defense but, well, that picture came up. So there's that too.
9. Purple Rain--This is the song that in the most ways works. It is well-rounded and, other than not really alternating its speed, covers every base. "Purple Rain" is an exercise in musical beauty--its gospel flair is one thing, but the power of the all-time great closing guitar solo makes it a well-rounded finale to a tremendous rock accomplishment.

Like "Purple Rain", Troy Tulowitzki captures everything you could possibly ask for (with the possible exception of exceptional bursts of speed). He has contact, he is a superb fielder, and he can bring the power at will. It's terrific. Purple Rain is terrific. Baseball is fun.
Purple Rain forever.
Monday, June 23, 2014
Drinking German Beer in the Most American of Ways
Two
weeks ago, I purchased a 16.9 ounce bottle of Weihenstephaner Hefeweissbier
Dunkel, a beer brewed by a nearly-millennium old brewery in the German region
of Bavaria. It is one of my favorite beers in the world and after going
many months without purchasing beer for my personal consumption, I decided
that it was time to jump back on the wagon (or is it on the wagon?).
It
didn’t even dawn on me at the time that I was, on the second day of the World
Cup, buying a German beer just in time for the United States to be in Germany’s
group during the World Cup. So I have been hesitant to drink it. But now, with
the United States three days away from a huge matchup against Germany, I feel
that I need to drink it while preserving my reputation as a fine and upstanding
American.
So
I asked Twitter.
So I have a German beer in my fridge. What would be the most patriotic way to consume it in light of Thursday?
— John (@johnjf125) June 23, 2014
I
got several responses but there was no contest as to the best response. It was
from Twitter user @lazyrasmus. The
suggestion was then confirmed via tweet favoriting from Twitter users @Buddha6883 and @lil_scooter93, themselves fine
and patriotic Americans. Everybody involved brought their a-game, particularly
Mr. Lazyrasmus. And here is the winning suggestion.
@johnjf125 wear a tie
— Condescending Wacha (@lazyrasmus) June 23, 2014
Now
I, like most men of a certain age, own several ties. But for this particular
occasion, there was only one choice of which tie to wear.
America so hard. pic.twitter.com/eHCLPqSkqw
— John (@johnjf125) June 22, 2014
Well, this is a start. I can prove my love for America by wearing a United States flag designed bowtie. Is this sufficiently American? Well, maybe for some. But not for me, damn it. I need to make this the most American beer-drinking experience of all-time. So let’s get this started with Bruce Springsteen’s 1984 ode to the American spirit (of drinking until you forget how miserable your life is).
The National Anthems
Out
of respect to Germany, I will play their national anthem. After all, we don’t
hate Germany. In fact, if Germany could just go ahead and agree to a 0-0 draw
which would allow the United States to advance, I wouldn’t argue.
What
a bad song. And you wanna know something? That’s the best selling single to
ever come from Germany. And from a band who made perfectly good big dumb rock
songs before they got into writing the national anthem of Germany.
But
that’s just a warm-up act for the United States of America.
The
United States of America has a beautiful, diverse culture which can foster so
many unique, equally valid components, but if listening to Jimi Hendrix rip off
the Star-Spangled Banner doesn’t make you want to run through a goddamned wall
in the name of liberty, you can go ahead and move to Communist Sweden.
Next,
I will pull the beer out of my refrigerator. I have to admit, the Germans make
one regal looking bottle of beer. And before I continue, I should add an
important disclaimer: Anybody who hopes to MERICA like this should be at least
21 years old. Additionally, this is far from the only way out there to MERICA.
If you do not drink, be it for ethical, health, or taste reasons, do not let
this limit you. Representing your homeland is a little like being a member of
the Wu-Tang Clan—it’s less about you subscribing to a certain set of rules and
boundaries and more about FEELING what it’s all about.
Next,
though, comes glassware. I know I’m drinking some expensive beer here, but I
don’t want to sound like the beer snob here, but I’m not drinking this beer out
of that bottle. What kind of college freshman douchebag would that make me?
Answer: Some kind of. But anyway, considering I don’t really drink that much, I
have an inordinate amount of glasses that would suffice for the job. My most
recently acquired glass came via a fraternity in which I belonged in college,
but the fraternity is an international fraternity. There’s nothing wrong with
being international or diverse, but for maximum MERICA, the presence of
Canadian chapters aren’t going to do the job. I have a glass with a
disintegrated Dave and Busters logo which, frankly, makes me sad. So that
leaves me with a choice of American breweries.
Ain’t
a damn thing more American than Sierra Nevada. Named after a mountain range
along the Oregon
Trail, after all. Approved.
Now,
it’s time to pour a glass.
DON’T
TREAD! Now, it’s time to taste it.
The
Germans are good at that beer they made. Shoutout to them forever for it. I
should take pride in “my people”. You see, on both sides of my family, my
ancestors arrived in the United States from Germany in the late 1800s. Four
generations later, I came along. And you know what? They can root for Germany
in the World Cup all they want. They are Germans. I am a real American.
I. I believe. I believe that we will win or at least maybe get a draw or if we lose that Portugal and Ghana will draw or the winner will have an insufficient goal differential to advance out of the group over the United States. Game on.
Saturday, June 21, 2014
I Kill Baseball Part 2: The Great Clayton Kershaw Experiment
Four and a half months
ago, I wrote basically the best thing I ever have or ever will write. It is the
logical conclusion of every stupid thing I’ve ever written—no less of a source
than a man with whom I recorded a one hour and fifty-two minute World Cup preview in which we declared that Brazil's national sport is basketball has declared it the peak of me
putting forth objectively stupid hypothetical questions.
You see, I’m not
particularly interested in boring baseball hypotheticals like “how would the
Cardinals do if they had Mike Trout in center field instead of a platoon of
Peter Bourjos and Jon Jay” because I more or less already know the answer—better,
because Mike Trout is super good and Peter Bourjos and Jon Jay aren’t as super
good as Mike Trout. I’m interested in peculiarity. In the case of my first
edition of hacking Baseball Mogul, I dipped somewhat into science fiction
(note: as of the time this was written, human cloning is not known to have
happened), but this time, I’m dipping merely into the realm of unlikelihood.
CLAYTON
KERSHAW THE BASED BALL GOD:
It can be argued that
on Wednesday night, Clayton Kershaw had the greatest pitching performance in
the history of Major League Baseball. I think I would still defer to Kerry
Wood, who was a questionable official scorer’s decision away from, like
Kershaw, having a no-walk, no-hit pitching performance not converted into a
perfect game due to an error, while striking out 20 batters to Kershaw’s 15. And
hell, Sandy Koufax and Matt Cain both pitched actual perfect games with 14
strikeouts. But this is really just splitting hairs because no matter what way
you slice it, Clayton Kershaw was super duper awesome. It is difficult to
imagine a situation in which his awesomeness wouldn’t have carried the Dodgers
to victory against any team in baseball. And that’s where I come in.
The thing is, as easy
as it would be to dwell on Hanley Ramirez for his error, it’s not like factors
outside of Clayton Kershaw, whether they his defense or luck, let him down on
the whole. Kershaw struck out 15, which means 12 outs were recorded by
fielders, which means that, since there was an error, there were 13 balls in
play. The Rockies’ team BABIP in the loosest sense of the term (one in which
the Ramirez error, which was very much an error, was ruled an infield hit) was
.077, which is, um, bad. Now, there were a lot of weakly hit balls and all that
but regardless, Kershaw wasn’t exactly alone out there, as awesome as he was.
But now, Mr. Kershaw,
you will face karmic revenge that you do not especially deserve via your defense.
They will let you down. They will make you hurt.
But don’t worry: I’m
not a total masochist. I will give ClayClay (this is a nickname people use for
Kershaw, right?) some offensive help. In fact, I will give him some of the best
damn run support I can. In fact, some of these guys will be really good
fielders. They will merely be used, um, unconventionally.
Mike
Trout, catcher: For all of Trout’s strengths, as I
previously explored, he doesn’t have a great arm. It’s not a terrible arm but
it’s really nothing to write home about. WHICH MEANS HE ISN’T A FIVE TOOL
PLAYER BECAUSE THAT IS A STUPID TERM. But since his offensive value is too
great to ignore, it was important to place him somewhere where his world-class
range wouldn’t make him anything resembling an asset in the field. So welcome
to catcher, Mike Trout. Hey, Mike Piazza was a great hitter who couldn’t throw
out runners to save his life at catcher (granted, he was a passable fielder in
other facets, but I think in spite of previous history with Mike Trout, he
might survive here).
Giancarlo
Stanton, first base: Of the eight best hitters in baseball,
Stanton has the best arm and the best range. So I’m putting him in the position
sometimes played by David Ortiz.
Jose
Bautista, second base: Since Joey Bats (brother of the late, great Billy Bats)
has played third base, it’s slightly risky to give him a position that he
couldn’t handle to a degree. So we might as well limit a pretty good arm and
exploit a relative lack of range.
Miguel
Cabrera, shortstop: So you thought Miguel Cabrera playing
third base was a shitshow?
Andrew
McCutchen, third base: Cutch is an interesting defensive
player. He makes occasionally spectacular defensive plays but can’t
particularly throw and mostly makes up for bad defensive instincts by being
fast (which partially contributes to the spectacular plays). Third base is a
perfect terrible position for him. This was the first position I decided. But Baseball Mogul remains optimistic about Cutch, though I question their judgment after reading the final sentence in his scouting report.
Troy
Tulowitzki, left field: Tulo has been the best hitter in
baseball this year so he HAD to be on the team. But he’s a really good fielder
at shortstop. I’m optimistic that at left field, Tulowitzki will not be a good
fielder because that’s just how Baseball Mogul works, but on the off-chance
that he is good, he’s in left field so the “damage” is limited.
Paul
Goldschmidt, center field: There are two guys on this team who
have never played the outfield in their careers. One is in left field. The one
I’m positive would be a bad fielder is in center field. And the guy who has
barely played in the outfield (in left) is in right.
Edwin
Encarnacion, right field: You get the idea by now.
Okay, so you know how I
said that this wasn’t about cloning? Well, I lied. Everything is about cloning.
So Clayton Kershaw is getting thirteen clones. Since I will be inputting his
stats solely from Wednesday into the game, he will have super good endurance,
but since the computer will inevitably go to the bullpen (BBM allows you to manage
games but I kind of enjoy my will to live, so I ain’t sitting through 162+
games of this), he gets Clayton Kloneshaws ™. As for the bench, I want to
minimize it. So the Dodgers will have three bench players. Every starter will
get a perfect health rating and for the bench, I’m going to go with default
created players, who are terrible at everything. They will be at least as bad
at fielding as these guys and much, much worse hitting. And I will scale down
manager substitution and double switches. Each of these guys would get 100
games if Mike Matheny could double switch them into games.
IMPORTANT
EDITING NOTE: If you are a Baseball Mogul player,
remember to uncheck the box about “sanity checking” stats. Usually the sanity
checks only come into play in small sample sizes, like if a guy plays one
inning and records three putouts and then it looks like he’s literally a vacuum
which encompasses an entire baseball field. Three Cardinals in my experiences
have broken the sanity check: 1985 Vince Coleman for steals, 1998 Mark McGwire
for home runs, and 2013 Matt Carpenter for doubles. The more you know!
So an interesting thing
happened when editing Kershaws. Turns out he was so damn good on Wednesday that
Baseball Mogul literally cannot rationalize what he did. His predicted stats
show his Wednesday line but…apparently the system is overwhelmed and spit out some pretty, um, erratic, scouting numbers (don't worry, I changed the health after this point). Hurray!
Also, the Kershaws have
been differentiated with new first names. The original Kershaw is now Alpha
Kershaw, and then Beta, Gamma, etc. Hey guys, I know the Greek alphabet! I am
so worldly! That or I was mandated to learn it in college. One of these theories
is true. Anyway, because YOLO, I decided to let the computer sort the Kershaws
by optimizing the bullpen and rotation and…turns out the actual Clayton
Kershaw, Alpha Kershaw, is the team’s fifth starter. The cloning process has
bred four better starters—Beta, Gamma, Delta, and Epsilon. You may recognize
these as the next four letters of the Greek alphabet. Thankfully, generations
Zeta on were not nearly as strong or I’d have thrown my computer off my balcony
and set fire to it. I’ve seen The Terminator.
I know what’s going on here.
THE
RESULTS
So basically, I figured
this would go one of two ways. I honestly didn’t have much of an idea between
the two as to how it would inevitably go, but I was pretty sure there was no
middle ground here. Either this team would be a wretched mess, an offensive
juggernaut with an incredible pitcher being totally let down by a hot mess of a
defense. Or my general belief that sabermetrics revisionism has led to defense
being overrated in a strikeout era would be validated when offensive and
pitching superstars carry the new-look Dodgers to glory.
Well, I was right. One
of either the win or loss column included the total of 149. So either this is
the best or worst team in baseball history. But first, let’s look at a game
which symbolizes just how much I have ruined baseball.
JUNE
4, 2014—Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers
The pitching matchup
for this game is Beta Kershaw, the nominal ace of the staff, against Jose
Quintana, who has bucked the trend I set forth by being an actual person and
not a clone.
Anyway, Jordan Danks
led off the game with a bunt single to first base. It dawns on me all of a
sudden that…how bad could Giancarlo Stanton be at this? Or Andrew McCutchen
down the left field line at that? Is this what teams are going to do, lay down
bunts and exploit outfielder unfamiliarity with fielding ground balls? If this
is a continuing problem, I will have to go back through previous game logs and
hopefully discover that the AI didn’t figure this out immediately. Or we are
all screwed. The Baseball Mogul managers will slowly learn more and slowly
exploit our apathy before we work for them.
Luckily, ol computer
Robin Ventura didn’t keep doing this in the first. #2 hitter Gordon Beckham
popped up to the shortstop, Miguel Cabrera, who recorded the out. Which isn’t a
huge surprise—Miggy isn’t THAT bad of a fielder.
And then, things got
real weird.
“Dayan Viciedo grounded
to third for a double play (5-4-3).”
A double play? Kershaw
didn’t record one measly strikeout? How exactly did Andrew McCutchen cleanly
field contact off Beta Kershaw’s 81 MPH hard curve, fire it to Jose Bautista,
who then made a proper turn to Giancarlo Stanton for the third out of the
inning? Perhaps players are this good. Maybe social pressures dictated that
these phenomenal hitters went to the outfield and didn’t develop into the next
Mike Schmidt or something. Perhaps positions are not real—we have merely
invented them for the sake of order. Or maybe this is a fluke.
Well, anyway, the
Dodgers scored a run in the bottom of the first, but we don’t care about this,
right? It should have actually been more damage—Paul Goldschmidt grounded out
with the bases loaded. Paul Goldschmidt is this team’s seventh hitter. Jesus
Christ.
After three innings,
the score was 3-0 Dodgers. This part was fine. But Beta Kershaw struck out one
batter and allowed no baserunners since the leadoff bunt. The defense was
holding their end of the bargain. A slight reprieve would come in the top of
the fourth, when Beta struck out Jordan Danks, Gordon Beckham, and Dayan
Viciedo. Maybe all he needed was to figure out the order the second time
through. OH DEAR GOD THE CLONES ARE LEARNING!
By the top of the
sixth, I’m getting worried. The Dodgers are up 4-0 and Beta Kershaw has “only”
five strikeouts. Now, I realize that nine K/9, even when a player is projected
for 15 per nine, is perfectly good, but what concerns me is this defense. They—aren’t
bad. Please, for the love of Based Ball God, give me some reason to believe
that clones will blow it.
The leadoff batter of
the top of the sixth, Denis Phipps, got to a full count before grounding the
ball to third baseman Andrew McCutchen, who committed a fielding error. On the
next pitch, catcher Mike Trout had a passed ball and Phipps got to second.
Next, after a weak Hector Gimenez dribbler in front of the mound, Trout
committed a throwing error. It was now first and third with nobody out. Eric
Patterson came to the plate and…he reached first on an error by second baseman
Jose Bautista. A run scored and there were runners on first and second. Presumably
rattled by his supporting “defense”, Beta Kershaw then allowed a home run to Jordan
Danks, who it bears repeating led the game off with a bunt. Beckham, Viciedo,
and Jose Abreu then proceeded to get three consecutive outs, but damage had
been done. On one hit and zero walks allowed, Beta Kershaw had allowed four
runs and the game was tied.
Mike Trout hit a solo
home run to lead off the bottom of the sixth, saving some face after his
defensive miscues in the top half of the frame, to give the Dodgers a one run
lead before the seventh inning began. Apropos of nothing, I wonder what inning
the Dodgers have to cut off alcohol sales.
The computer manager
did a really weird, stupid thing, replacing Paul Goldschmidt with a guy whose
CF defensive rating is inexplicably WORSE than Goldschmidt’s and who cannot hit
at all. TRIM THOSE SIDEBURNS, MATTINGLY. But luckily that didn’t affect this
inning.
First, Alexei Ramirez
reached on another Trout error. I’m starting to think that my Clone Trout
experiment gave the impression that cloning an outfielder and putting him at
other positions wouldn’t work but that in reality it was a Trout problem. But
anyway, after a Conor Gillaspie strikeout, Denis Phipps drove a “double” into
the left field gap. According to the play-by-play, he went for an extra base
and reached third but I have my suspicions that Tulo blew it. SEE HE CAN’T BE
MVP NOW THE MVP SHOULD ALWAYS BE YADIER MOLINA. But next, a Hector Gimenez
single to center and the White Sox took the lead. Beta Kershaw overcame another
Trout error (Jesus, dude) and going into the seventh inning stretch, the Sox
led 6-5.
In the bottom of the
eighth, the Dodgers scored six runs and ended up winning the game 11-6. I tell
you this for one reason and one reason only—the pitcher who allowed all six
runs for the White Sox? Mitchell Boggs. Those of you who are not Cardinals fans
are probably confused as to why this detail matters but trust me, I know how to
pander to a base.
Beta Kershaw pitched a
complete game. His final line reads: 9 IP, 6 H, 0 BB, 1 HR, 6 R, 1 ER, 10 K, 140
pitches. His season ERA increased to 0.60.
This
season went well for the Dodgers.
The starting rotation
of the Dodgers accumulated WAR seasons of 19.5, 19.6, 20.3, 19.8, and 11.7 (he
only had 23 starts. He also got 21, making him the only Dodgers starter who did
not reach 30 on the season). Beta pitched three perfect games and an additional
no-hitter. Gamma had one perfecto and one no-hitter. Epsilon got a no-no, Delta
got four no-hitters, and Alpha (i.e., the actual Clayton Kershaw character
pre-cloning) got none. And since he got a no-hitter in real life this year
already, the game may have underestimated this team’s force.
The entire pitching
staff had these combined statistics on the season: 2128 strikeouts, zero walks,
63 earned runs, 134 total runs. Theta Kershaw was the worst pitcher on the
entire team by a sizable margin: He had a season ERA of 1.04 and a season FIP
of 1.73. #DFATheta
Amazingly, Mike Trout
was not the worst defender on this team. He was merely third worst, with a mere
-5.1 lost defensive wins, catching a solid 10% of baserunners while committing
38 errors. Hell, he was even a moderately minus defender in 24 games where Don
Mattingly ruined everything and Trout wound up in right or center field.
Miguel Cabrera
committed 43 errors at shortstop. He put up -6.5 defensive wins and had a .914 fielding
percentage. Jose Bautista was worse. Bautista, at second, was -6.7 wins and
rocked 27 errors. I’m still not sure how he was worse but I don’t even really
understand these stats in real life—I’m not trying to understand them in this
hellish landscape of “baseball” of which I am responsible.
But anyway, now I’m
going to simulate the playoffs. I’ve written this entire thing up to this point
without having done that! You guys can learn what happens with me.
The Dodgers won the
World Series in four games, ironically over the White Sox. Beta Kershaw pitched
a no-hitter in the playoffs and won World Series MVP. Baseball is ruined
Human cloning may not
be a good thing, folks.
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