In light of fewer people caring about most of the awards than care about reading this blog, I stuck to the ones that anyone gives a shit about.
Best Original Screenplay--Midnight in Paris
This seems like a no-brainer. Look at the other nominees--an indie pic that nobody saw, an Iranian film, a movie that's mostly shit jokes (which, for some reason, are considered to be quite elegant if delivered by women instead of men), and a silent movie. And instead you get to pick a Woody Allen movie, filled with the usual pretension and literacy of an Allen screenplay. And he probably won't show up for the awards, so there's an outside chance we get to hear Owen Wilson give an Oscar acceptance speech. I'm down.
Best Adapted Screenplay--The Descendants
This one seems to be getting most of the buzz; ironically, if this George Clooney movie wins, it'll end up defeating a George Clooney script. The only other movie that seemingly *could* win is Moneyball, but Aaron Sorkin just won last year on a generally better-received script. I'm expecting Alexander Payne to win at least one Oscar tonight.
Best Supporting Actor--Christopher Plummer
Though I've heard Kenneth Branagh and Jonah Hill get high marks for their performances, this is probably the biggest slam dunk pick of the night. Acclaimed performance+82 year old that somehow doesn't have an Oscar to his name=Anyone picking someone other than Plummer in their Oscar pools need help.
Best Supporting Actress--Octavia Spencer
Sadly, it always seems to help when you play a stock stereotype character. This doesn't always mean you win but it does mean that you will if there aren't really any other standout nominees. I mean, is the chick from Mike & Molly really gonna win an Oscar?
Best Actor--George Clooney
This is considered a close competition between Jean Dujardin and Clooney, and I'm calling for the minor upset with Clooney. Although Clooney has a supporting actor win from Syriana, he's still Hollywood gold and has an excellent chance to topple the general unknown. The fact that a silent movie got nominated for screenplay certainly implies that this will be a HUGE night for The Artist, but I don't think this will be one of them.
Best Actress--Viola Davis
I think people are sleeping on Michelle Williams, who got a lot of hype early on, but this probably comes down to Viola Davis and Meryl Streep. And Meryl Streep doesn't win Oscars because she doesn't make good movies. She won for Kramer vs. Kramer and Sophie's Choice and has made pretentious crap ever since. She will continue to be lauded for playing over-the-top characters with insane accents, but the veteran Viola Davis is going to be the winner here. And I don't think it's as close as many say.
Best Director--Michel Hazanavicius
Alexander Payne seems to fit the mold of the last six winners, all of whom were directing vets who had yet to win (Ang Lee, Martin Scorsese, Coen Brothers, Danny Boyle, Kathryn Bigelow, Tom Hooper; and I know Malick fits this criteria too, but let's be realistic here). But as Hazanavicius made the most original of the five nominated films, he seems like a lock. Even if The Artist doesn't win Best Picture, I'm expecting it'll win Best Director. But really that's beside the point.
Best Picture--The Artist
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