AL East
1. Orioles--They won 96 games with a suspended/ineffective Chris Davis and a hurt Matt Wieters and their only major loss is Nelson Cruz. Pecota has them finishing in last and this division is a crapshoot but I don't get why.
2. Blue Jays--They added Russell Martin and Josh Donaldson and for some reason the friggin White Sox got more attention for their offseason.
3. Red Sox--Their lineup is really good, even though Hanley Ramirez could be a mess in left field, but their third starter is still Joe Kelly and he isn't even healthy.
4. Rays--They weren't great last year and they no longer have David Price and Ben Zobrist, who were replaced with very little of note.
5. Yankees--They could be pretty good if everybody stays healthy, but everybody is old and they have no depth. Brian Cashman is so terrible at his job.
AL Central
1. Tigers--In a few years they're going to REALLY suck but they still have enough. Yeah, they lost Scherzer, but we all picked them to win the Central last year when they didn't have David Price.
2. Indians--Jonah Keri picked them to win the World Series but he also thinks Montreal is a good baseball city so take it with a grain of salt. Could be pretty good if Bourn and/or Swisher figure something out.
3. Royals--James Shields isn't THAT big of a loss. They're taking a step back but not that far back.
4. White Sox--They won 73 games and they added Jeff Samardzija and Adam LaRoche. They also added a superfluous closer for way too much money. People are picking them to win the division and I don't get it.
5. Twins--Buxton and Sano are probably a year away.
AL West
1. Angels--People really quickly soured on a 98 win team that didn't lose anything major. Their rotation is shaky but it was shaky last year too.
2. Athletics--Never doubt Billy Beane Devil Magic. Aside from Donaldson they have most of the core from before they loaded up on rentals last year (and were in first place) and added Zobrist and Brett Lawrie and they're good baseball players.
3. Mariners--They have Robinson Cano, Felix Hernandez, and Kyle Seager. Who is their fourth best player? They're a vogue division pick.
4. Rangers--I picked them to win the division last year because I'm stupid and could've rationalized them as a Wild Card threat before Darvish got hurt. But he did and so now they're resigned to merely be better than Houston.
5. Astros--Jeff Luhnow passed on Kris Bryant for Mark Appel.
NL East
1. Nationals--Anybody who doesn't pick the Nationals to win this division is a hipster attention whore.
2. Mets--Young pitcher injuries but, like, they have several good young pitchers.
3. Marlins--They have an exciting young core with Stanton, Yelich, Jose Fernandez, Henderson Alvarez, etc., but I do think they're a few pieces away from being a true playoff contender.
4. Braves--I don't think they're going to be the disaster a lot of people think they're going to be, but they may have the lowest upside in the majors. We know their players and we know what they are--they aren't a 100 loss team but they aren't good either.
5. Phillies--I think the 2008 Phillies could beat the 2015 Phillies in a game, and several players on the 2008 Phillies have been retired for years.
NL Central
1. Cardinals--Their worst position last year was right field and now they have Jason Heyward playing there. No reason they shouldn't be favored to repeat as division champs.
2. Pirates--Cervelli is worse than Martin but the young core is a year more seasoned and as a whole, they're probably about as good as the team that pre-2012 would've been a Wild Card last year.
3. Reds--Billy Hamilton will mature, Jay Bruce can't be that bad again, Todd Frazier and Devin Mesoraco appear to be bona fide studs, a healthy Joey Votto is healthy, Aroldis Chapman is probably the best reliever in the game, and people need to start acknowledging how good Johnny Cueto is. With that said, Jason Marquis is in their rotation.
4. Cubs--I feel like a lot of people are going to want me to defend why I picked a team that won 73 games last year and added Jon Lester and an average catcher to finish in fourth this year.
5. Brewers--They fell apart down the stretch last year and they traded away their ace.
NL West
1. Dodgers--They are relying entirely too much on Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson to stay healthy (relying on the former is fine, relying on the latter is insane) but you're just trying to be cute if you don't pick them to win the division.
2. Giants--I don't think a team that lost Pablo Sandoval and nothing else of consequence goes from an 88 win team to mediocre overnight, especially when their rotation looks straight up good if either Tim Lincecum or Matt Cain regain their old form (I would never bet on both to do so, but one seems plausible enough).
3. Padres--Wil Myers is playing center field for them. Their infield is abysmal. They have a couple good starters and then nothing much beyond that. They have the talent that I could see them finishing 2nd but I could also see them disappointing a whole bunch of people.
4. Rockies--Their lineup is actually quite good and interesting when healthy, even if their rotation isn't great. I could see a scenario where they finish ahead of the Padres but this requires them to all be healthy, which means depending on Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez to remain healthy, which is not generally a good bet to make.
5. Diamondbacks--Not that anybody is saying they are good but I think you should look at their roster and digest just how unimpressive it is. The four worst teams in the NL by a mile are the bottom two in the East and West.
Awards
AL MVP--Mike Trout. He's really good and I think his team is going to win its division so yeah.
NL MVP--Yasiel Puig. He keeps getting better and will combine the exciting narrative elements with being a really good baseball player.
AL Cy Young--David Price. In picking awards, I always pick a good player on a good team and of my division winners, he's quite clearly the best pitcher among them so yeah, okay, sounds good to me.
NL Cy Young--Clayton Kershaw. Well, he won MVP last year, so I guess technically I'm predicting regression.
AL ROY--Daniel Norris. He lives in a van down by the river and people like stories.
NL ROY--Kris Bryant. Have you heard about him.
Playoffs
AL Wild Cards: Athletics, Blue Jays
NL Wild Cards: Pirates, Giants
AL Champion: Angels
NL Champion: Nationals
World Series Champion: Nationals
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