This isn't really an outlandish prediction--pretty much every source is predicting a 2nd place divisional finish. The Reds won the division decisively and they improved from last year. The Cardinals more or less stayed equal, perhaps dropping incrementally. But here's a few major predictions about the team, in no particular order.
Yadier Molina is going to come back down to Earth a little bit: Yadi's offense has steadily improved basically his entire career but his 2012 was simply insane. He's getting (for a catcher) old and people who think he's going to improve on OPSing nearly .900 are nuts. He didn't OPS .800 until 2011--as long as he keeps his OPS above .800 I'll be quite all right.
I'm more worried about the #4 spot than the #8: There is a lot of concern about Pete Kozma and what kind of offense he'll bring to the plate (haha, get it? Because it's a common metaphor but it's also literally what he will be doing!), but it's worth reminding that the Cardinals made the playoffs with Brendan Ryan at shortstop. People worry about Pete Kozma because his hitting stats were pretty terrible in the minors, but in the majors they've been stronger. It's a small sample size, yes, but they also were better in 2011. Some guys just do better in the majors. Maybe they're just bored or apathetic or something in the minors, I don't know, but it happens. It's the exception to the rule and it's too early to determine whether Kozma is one of those guys, but if the concern is how the guy batting eighth bats, it's going to be okay. I'm more concerned about Allen Craig as a cleanup hitter. He hit pretty well last year but who knows what will happen after he got his extension? He also was pretty under the radar last season and now he's the cleanup hitter in a good lineup.
If Kolten Wong gets called up, God help us all: Kolten Wong is already the anointed Cardinals second baseman of the future and I'll take the word of people who know these sorts of things better than I do. But he will get absolutely eviscerated whenever he comes up. The hype this guy has suggests he's going to be a big time MLB hitter. That's really not what anyone should reasonably expect he will be--we should expect he'll be a big time MLB hitter for a second baseman. He OPSed .753 in AA last year. This is perfectly fine for a second baseman but for some reason, people expect their middle infielders to be every bit the sluggers of first basemen and corner outfielders. The best second baseman in the Cardinals organization in my lifetime, Fernando Vina, never OPSed .800 in a season. It didn't matter; he was playing (quite well) a premium defensive position. Whenever Wong comes up, possibly this year but more likely in 2014, please be patient.
David Freese might finally be ready to just be a guy: In October of 2011, David Freese went from being a supremely underrated baseball player to a supremely overrated one. And in 2012, he more or less played what I believe to be what he is when healthy--a good, non-superstar type baseball player. He's not Mike Schmidt or George Brett. He is, however, a terrific piece to have for a good team, and maybe with the World Series long over, people will accept that this is what he is.
Don't give Waino a blank check: You know how after Albert Pujols signed with the Angels, all these Cardinals fans (myself included) were relieved that the team hadn't paid for sentimental value? Well, this situation could be happening again with Adam Wainwright. For some reason, Cardinals fans don't have a realistic grasp of what Adam Wainwright is. Adam Wainwright has one all-star appearance. He has never started a World Series game. He turns 32 this year and has had two outstanding seasons and a couple other good ones. He's a good player--he's not Roy Halladay, he's not Justin Verlander, he's not worth an absolute top-dollar contract. Potential 2014 rotation that won't even require re-signings: Garcia, Lynn, Miller, Rosenthal, Kelly. Oh yeah, Michael Wacha and Carlos Martinez, too. Holy shit this depth. Sure it's a nice luxury to have Adam Wainwright but that doesn't mean you sacrifice your payroll for him.
Let's stop pretending Trevor Rosenthal is as top-notch of a prospect as Shelby Miller:Trevor Rosenthal has a faster fastball than Shelby Miller. He has worse statistics by basically every metric and scouts agree Shelby is better. Rosenthal isn't an untouchable prospect. If the Texas Rangers will agree to my favorite hypothetical trade, Matt Adams and Trevor Rosenthal for Elvis Andrus, you take it in four seconds.
Fin.
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