MLB Awards Voters--Do They Really Suck THAT Badly?

In this little post, I go back several years and look at AL MVP, NL MVP, AL Cy Young, and NL Cy Young, and determine just how badly (if at all) the voters did in their votings.

2012

AL MVP Miguel Cabrera
Now THIS is a first award to discuss. Old school vs. new school (or the illiterates at ESPN would put it, "Nu Skool"). Traditional stats vs. modern stats. Assholes who claim people who disagree don't understand math vs. assholes who claim people who disagree live in their mom's basement and never played a sport in their lives. And since I don't live in my mom's basement, have played sports, and at least know math well enough to major in accounting, I'm the perfect reliable source! Now, Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout had similar offensive years, with Miggy being slightly better. I don't give a damn that he won the Triple Crown, but he led the league in SLG and OPS and only trailed in OBP by .006. And I'll give Miguel Cabrera unquantifiable credit for playing a defensive position he's worse at in order to help his team by squeezing Prince Fielder into the lineup. With that said, Mike Trout was an infinitely superior baserunner who played Gold Glove-caliber center field. I don't find this as terrible as most Trout supporters, but regardless they still made the incorrect decision.

NL MVP Buster Posey
You can't really make a statistical argument that Yadier Molina was a better catcher in 2012 than Buster Posey. Now, that isn't to say you can't make an argument using intangible factors. People smirk at intangibles as though they're voodoo, and I'm certainly not going to go by the old, insane, probably not actually true argument that Yadier Molina would be a starting MLB catcher if he batted .000, because he shouldn't be. But it seems silly to treat the comparison as though the things Yadier Molina does that can't be measured by stats (handling pitching staffs, calling games) aren't also handled well by Posey. Both have a pair of World Series rings and have turned so-so starters into ace-caliber guys. And with regards to tangible factors, Posey is better--materially higher OPS, much more effective at drawing walks, and still pretty damn studly defensive numbers. #2 in MVP voting was Ryan Braun, who had a somewhat higher OPS while playing an incompetent left field. You can argue for Molina but voters probably made the right decision.

AL Cy Young David Price
Pitchers are somewhat of a tenuous area for me, and really for fans as a whole. It all comes down to your go-to metric. Some guys use Win-Loss record. Some guys use ERA. Some guys use FIP/xFIP. Some guys use innings pitched (generally in conjunction with other stats). I disregard W-L (and saves, if we're talking relievers) and most highly weigh ERA but the other numbers at least matter. Price had a better ERA than Justin Verlander (he also had a better W-L, and I suspect this is the main reason he won), but it was only 0.08 better. Which matters but it isn't everything. Verlander, however, had a IP lead of over three complete games worth of innings. He also had 34 more strikeouts with only one more walk. The fact that Verlander only got one fewer first place vote than Price is actually a display of how far statistical analysis has come. He should have gotten more. Price had a really good year but Justin Verlander is out of this world.

NL Cy Young R.A. Dickey
I guess it's because his 2011 was better, but Clayton Kershaw had an insufficiently acclaimed 2012. He had a 0.2 run lower ERA and only had six fewer innings. R.A. had more strikeouts--by one. But more importantly, he had more wins. Which is weird because his team was terrible compared to Kershaw's. Things don't make sense sometimes. I would have voted Kershaw-Dickey-Cueto, though admittedly this would have been dispassionate as hell.

2011

AL MVP Justin Verlander

First of all, my AL Cy Young one for this year is going to be rendered useless. Because if Verlander deserved the MVP, he deserved the Cy Young. Now, it's really difficult to compare pitchers and batters and this is a case where I tend to use WAR a decent bit. I try to avoid it because, like most people, I don't know the formula to it, so it's basically taking a blind leap of faith that it accurately reflects player value. The reason I tend to lean Verlander over Ellsbury or Bautista is that Justin had an undeniably great season. By any measure, he was the best pitcher in the AL. Ellsbury had a solid offensive year combined with strong defense but a 7.1 BB% isn't going to excite me enough. Jose Bautista had the bat to win MVP but sucked in the field. Honestly, I can't argue against any of the three, though my ballot would go Verlander, Ellsbury, Bautista. I will argue against the dude who voted Michael Young MVP. That's just insanity.

NL MVP Ryan Braun

Forget that he did steroids, that's not the issue here. While Matt Kemp is an average-at-best fielding CF, Braun's around the same level at a less premium defensive position. And they had extremely similar hitting numbers. I'm tempted to go for my CYA guy here, but I'll leave him third and go Kemp at 1 and Braun at 2.

AL Cy Young Justin Verlander

Next.

NL Cy Young Clayton Kershaw

Holy shit was this a strong Cy Young year. Like, HOLY SHIT. You could basically flip a coin between the top two, who in spite of what bWAR would suggest were rightfully Clayton Kershaw and Roy Halladay. I really can't tell why exactly, but bWAR and fWAR each would indicate that Halladay was hands down better than Kershaw. Halladay was awesome with his command but Kershaw, in basically the same innings (0.1 fewer), managed 28 more strikeouts. By the absolute narrowest margins, I'd go Kershaw. Really can't argue against Roy, who unfortunately got pretty damn trounced in the final vote totals.

2010

AL MVP Josh Hamilton

The only guy who could compete with the bat with Hamilton in the AL was Miguel Cabrera, who was a poor fielding first baseman, while Josh Hamilton was playing surprisingly competent defense. Evan Longoria was also playing solid defense with a strong bat, but his hitting cannot be reasonably compared to Josh Hamilton's. Voters got this one right.

NL MVP Joey Votto

Votto vs. Pujols, the only position player that's really worth discussing with Votto, is impossibly close. Like, RIDICULOUSLY close. Votto won by a huge amount, which is sad, but their stats are so damn close that I can't even get that upset that Votto won because his team went to the playoffs. It's a terrible argument BUT THERE'S NO DIFFERENCE HERE. Votto had a higher OBP and SLG for a grand total OPS lead of .013. So Votto hit marginally better. Both fielded decently, with Pujols being slightly better. Pujols was a slightly better base runner. Like, really, there are probably Cardinals fans passionate about this one. Who cares? I think I'd probably go Votto-Pujols but maybe I'd go Pujols-Votto so that the margin of victory would more accurately reflect the difference in abilities.

AL Cy Young Felix Hernandez

Harold Reynolds had to have his brain melt when the 13-12 Hernandez won the Cy Young. But he deserved it. It wasn't particularly close, either. Let's compare him to David Price, who finished in 2nd (reasonably). Felix had 41 more innings, nine fewer walks, and forty-four more strikeouts. His ERA was 0.45 runs lower. To think that an era not long ago existed in which King Felix would not have won the Cy Young Award is horrifying.

NL Cy Young Roy Halladay

Well, he won unanimously, which probably isn't fair to Adam Wainwright. But because of Roy Halladay's insane control, I think I'll still go with him. Sorry to Ubaldo Jimenez, who inexplicably has an irrationally high WAR on both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference.

2009

AL MVP Joe Mauer

So I might as well get this out of the way right now--I'm basically in love with late-2000s Joe Mauer. He was just absolutely perfect. There have always been good hitting catchers who were also good fielders but how often was the single best hitter also the single best fielder? Now he can't stay healthy and Posey's a better hitter and Molina's a better fielder but Joe Mauer was awesome for a while. And when a Gold Glove caliber catcher leads in the league in on-base and slugging, he could have a hundred times caught stealing and I'm going to still pick him. Somehow he doesn't lead in bWAR (I'm confused B-R's WAR is devised to get the player Tony LaRussa would most get giddy about having on his bench, and hence Ben Zobrist always has an absurdly high number) or even fWAR, whose erection for Ben Zobrist's positional versatility is far less obvious, but I'm still going with Mauer.

NL MVP Albert Pujols

There were a few years when Albert Pujols just absolutely obliterated the field in MVP balloting and this is one of those years. Chase Utley had a strange ignored season given that his team ended up in the World Series and was the defending champion, finishing eighth while OPSing over .900 from second base, but even so, it's still Albert Pujols by a wide, wide margin.

AL Cy Young Zack Greinke

Interestingly, rightful 2010 winner Felix Hernandez might had won in 2009 under older methodology of player evaluation, but while his season was truly excellent, Greinke's was superior. He led the majors in ERA, FIP, and if you're one of those people who just HAS to look at Win-Loss percentage, he overcame being on the Royals to get sixteen wins.

NL Cy Young Tim Lincecum

There is a delusion among some Cardinals fans, and it was recently perpetuated by professional rambler Al Hrabosky, that the 2-3 finishers (Cardinals Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, respectively) were robbed. Well, they weren't. If you combined Carpenter's productivity with Waino's inning count, then sure, but that's not how this works. Tim Lincecum combined excellence with tenure in 2009. Side note, Keith Law is still a moron for listing Javier Vazquez second on his ballot (when you base an awards argument solely on "predictive" stats and not on actual, past results and then the guy you predict is going to do even better after the fact has a 5.00+ ERA/FIP the next season, you're just hilariously wrong, though I'm sure he would explain to me that I simply don't "understand math" for holding this viewpoint).

2008

AL MVP Dustin Pedroia

2008 was an embarrassingly poor year for AL MVP candidates. Like, Chase Utley was busy putting up nearly 9 WAR in the NL and finishing 14th (and still not deserving to win, but that's a little way's away) while an inferior second baseman was winning in the AL. As weak as Pedroia's season was by MVP standards, there really wasn't one among batters that was better. And that's why I'm going slightly off the beaten path and saying the MVP should have been the guy who finished 12th--starting pitcher Cliff Lee. Even his season wasn't the kind of dominant performance you'd normally associate with a pitcher winning MVP but it was strong enough (2.54 ERA and 223.1 IP). This was also the weird year that the arguable best pitcher in baseball switched leagues mid-season.

NL MVP Albert Pujols

This was VERY nearly an unbelievably embarrassing result. First of all, the ballot should have been, in order: Pujols (who finished 1st), Chase Utley (14th), and Chipper Jones (12th). Again, they got the winner right and that's all that theoretically matters but #2 was the worst candidate among the top ten, including CC Sabathia WHO DIDN'T JOIN THE NL UNTIL JULY. Ryan Howard finished 2nd, and actually got a TON of first place votes, presumably because he hit 48 home run. Which isn't nothing. But he, a mediocre fielder at the least important defensive position, had a .881 OPS, which is respectable but not even close to MVP caliber even if he'd been a slick-fielding shortstop or something. bREF puts his WAR at 1.72. Among MLB batters, his FanGraphs WAR for 2008 (again, this doesn't even count pitchers) ranked SEVENTY-SEVENTH. THIS GUY FINISHED 2ND PLACE AND GOT TWELVE FIRST PLACE VOTES FOR MVP! I'm sure some Howard voters scoffed at the guy who voted Brad Lidge MVP (which is also dumb), but even HE was more deserving. Pujols won though so all is well.

AL Cy Young Cliff Lee

Well, I had him as MVP, marginally. I also have him as Cy Young, marginally (Roy Halladay was really good too, just not as good).

NL Cy Young Tim Lincecum

It was weird when Tim Lincecum came on the scene. I guess it's because Cy Youngs kept being won for a long time by guys who were in the majors when I first started watching baseball (Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling, et al). But Lincecum, for all of his current mediocrity, was dominant for a few years. Ton of strikeouts, low ERA, gobbled innings. Johan Santana had a fair case, with a slightly lower ERA with slightly fewer innings, but Lincecum just had too many more strikeouts to resist.

2007

AL MVP Alex Rodriguez

A-Rod is a rare guy who won a ton of awards and probably deserved more. Assuming I get to his Mariners/Rangers year before I get bored of this concept, I'll go into more depth then, but Alex Rodriguez was terrific. Bonds was a better hitter and while he was a decent fielder, he was playing left field. A-Rod was killing it at the plate while playing Gold Glove-caliber shortstop and/or third base. And if you're going to give Miguel Cabrera credit for playing third to help the team, you have to give credit to A-Rod. But yeah, this one was pretty easy (save for whoever voted Magglio Ordonez). He killed it on standard metrics, he had the highest OPS in the league, he played a tough defensive position, and he even swiped 24 bases in spite of being comprised primarily of steroids.

NL MVP Jimmy Rollins

I enjoy this because I'm going with a guy who received zero first place votes. Hell, my #2 would have also been a guy who didn't get any first place votes. #3 I'll go with a guy who got first place votes but didn't win (Matt Holliday). #2 is Albert Pujols, who led the NL in bWAR and played solid defense while OPSing nearly 1.000. But #1 is, like in my AL ballot, a third baseman who put up excellent batting numbers to go with a glove--David Wright. But 2007 was a weird year. Rollins didn't really deserve to win and he might not even crack my Top 5 but the gap between him and the guys I'd pick to win aren't THAT astronomical.

AL Cy Young CC Sabathia

The gap between the top 4 vote-getters (who were rightfully, in some order, the top four) is hard to really evaluate. Sabathia, Josh Beckett, John Lackey, and Fausto Carmona (as he was known at the time). But I'm going to opt for Sabathia because of the four, he combined a low ERA with strikeouts. Beckett had more strikeouts but a higher ERA and fewer innings. Fausto had comically low strikeout totals so I'll drop him from the ballot. I guess I'll go with Lackey at 2 and Beckett at 3--while Beckett had the strikeouts, it's hard to pass up an ERA and innings edge. But yeah, I'm going with CC Sabathia and given how this vote would look six years later, I'm pretty damn content with myself.

NL Cy Young Jake Peavy

It's really easy to forget that Jake Peavy won a Cy Young Award for the San Diego Padres not that long ago. But, well, he did. And he deserved it. The only other pitcher worth mentioning is Brandon Webb (speaking of "Remember him?" guys), who had 13 more innings but also allowed 16 more earned runs.

2006

AL MVP Justin Morneau

Sometimes the lengths to which MVP voters will avoid a pitcher winning is comical. And thus Justin Morneau wins the MVP over his more deserving teammate. And I'm not talking about Joe Mauer, though he also was more deserving of the MVP than Morneau, who hit mildly well but couldn't field. The top vote getters are littered with guys who can't field (among the top five, Derek Jeter is the BEST fielder). But Johan Santana, who rightfully won the Cy Young, had a really strong year, going about 11:2 K:BB ratio with a 2.77 ERA (in a still relatively offensive-driven era). He was clearly the best pitcher and probably the best player.

NL MVP Ryan Howard

Now, Ryan Howard is the most overrated player in the Major Leagues of the last ten years. He generally combines terrible defense with a general inability to get non-homer base hits, yet gets his share of homers and somehow warranted a $20 million/year contract. 2006 was not one of those years that commanded this reputation--he was excellent. But Albert Pujols was better. He was a better fielder. He was a better (less terrible) baserunner. He had a higher on-base percentage and a higher slugging percentage. He hit 49 home runs, while Howard had 58. Strangely, I think Pujols gets at least a few more first place votes if he gets to 50. Obviously that one home run would greatly improve his value. For what it's worth, Carlos Beltran's .982 OPS while playing stellar defense in center field should have finished second.

AL Cy Young Johan Santana

Yep.

NL Cy Young Brandon Webb

Trevor Hoffman came REALLY close to winning this thing. Now, I'm something of a moderate on relief pitcher value. On one hand, they pitch way fewer innings, but on the other hand, they generally pitch MUCH more high-leverage innings. With that said, a reliever better be FILTHY and there better not be a standout starter for me to consider one for Cy Young (people who refuse to vote a reliever for Cy Young but do so for MVP are adorable). Anyway, and it's close, but I'd put Brandon Webb second. In about fifteen fewer innings, Roy Oswalt allowed eight fewer runs (again, this is close) and had a slightly higher K:BB ratio. My ballot would have gone, in order: Oswalt, Webb, Chris Carpenter. You could reverse this list and I couldn't really put up a strong argument against it.

2005

AL MVP Alex Rodriguez

Alex Rodriguez and David Ortiz came relatively close in MVP voting. Their offensive numbers were similar, though A-Rod's were by any measure other than RBI (which is a stupid measure) better. On principle, I refuse to discriminate A-Rod so-so defense against him when comparing him to a designated hitter. Like, a player's defense better be absolutely ABYSMAL for me to consider it more of a detriment in weighing MVPs than not playing defense at all. A-Rod deserved his victory here.

NL MVP Albert Pujols

After four years of being awesome and not getting a sniff at MVP because Barry Bonds, Pujols finally won in 2005. Frankly, I'm amazed in retrospect that he beat Andruw Jones. Considering that Andruw Jones is the best defensive center fielder since Willie Mays (YES HE IS, JIM EDMONDS FANBOYS) and considering he put up 51 home runs while leading the league in RBI, he makes for a great standard MVP candidate. Hell, he only hit .263 and I still don't hate his candidacy because he isn't Ryan Howard in the field. With that said, Albert Pujols was an undeniably better hitter and thus I'd still go with him. My ballot goes Pujols, Derrek Lee (who led the league in OPS but couldn't field or run to save his life), and Andruw Jones. These three were the top 3 in MVP voting (though actual results have Jones and Lee flipped). Such harmony. I'd start singing Ebony and Ivory but I don't think any MVP voters are minorities so it doesn't really apply here.

AL Cy Young Bartolo Colon

Sabermetrics, schmabermetrics. Like, who cares if Colon wasn't even the best pitcher in his own rotation (and that guy, John Lackey, got zero votes)? Amazingly, the #2 vote-getter was a closer who didn't even toss 80 innings and he still managed to put up a higher bWAR than Colon, who had a fairly pedestrian 3.48 ERA to go with a bunch of wins. I'd even consider Mariano Rivera, because as I've said before I like closers more than most people who care about things like OPS, if Johan Santana hadn't put up the season he did. 0.61 runs lower ERA, an unfathomable EIGHTY ONE more strikeouts in only nine more innings. I think I'd go as far as Rivera second, with Santana winning and Mark Buerhle getting third. Bartolo isn't THAT far removed from 3rd, but he is pretty damn far removed from first.

NL Cy Young Chris Carpenter

Sorry, Cardinals fans: Carp didn't deserve the Cy Young Award. Actually, let me clarify this--he had a perfectly good season. But Roger Clemens had a better one. The Rocket had a material innings deficit of 30.1 but the numbers he put up in his innings were just goddamned awe-inspiring. Carp's ERA was far from bad and Clemens had one that was almost a full run lower. Carp had a better BB:K ratio, and yes, that does count, but a 1.87 ERA for a 200+ inning pitcher. Holy hell. Ballot goes Clemens, Chris Carpenter, and the formerly good Dontrelle Willis.

2004

AL MVP Vladimir Guerrero

I have a hard time deciding whether the sabermetric revolution helped or hurt Vlad Guerrero's reputation. On one hand, quiet guys in irrelevant markets who can't speak English get more attention. On the other hand, Vladimir Guerrero's plate discipline was approximately the same as mine if I'm playing a video game. Regardless, Vlad's 2004 was a very good season but it wasn't a great season. It was probably the best of the guys who received votes, but a few guys slipped through the cracks. Namely Ichiro. Yes, I know he had a .399 BABIP and that his impossibly high BABIP totals he's put up for 12 years are due for regression soon, but a .372 batting average is pretty awesome. Ichiro never was great at drawing walks but even so he pulled off a .414 on-base and continued to be the best fielding right fielder ever (I spend a lot of time ridiculing corner outfielders and first baseman as irrelevant defenders but Ichiro was so damn good he made the position relevant). Among offensive players it wasn't all that close. More on the pitchers in a minute.

NL MVP Barry Bonds

Holy shit, the 2004 MVP grouping. You want to know how unbelievable the list of NL candidates were? Albert Pujols put up 8.43 bWAR with 46 home runs and a 1.072 OPS. He finished third and honestly probably didn't deserve to finish that high. Because Adrian Beltre and Scott Rolen, two of the best fielding third basemen I've ever seen, both cleared the 1.000 mark on OPS. And they didn't even deserve the MVP that year either! It was ludicrous, really, how good Barry Bonds was in the early 2000s. His numbers look like one enormous typo. Here's a few ones: He had more walks than Adrian Beltre, Albert Pujols, and Scott Rolen COMBINED. His .812 slugging percentage is better than the OPS of Juan Pierre, who received 9 MVP vote points. People can shout steroids all they want but there's just no way he just had THAT much better of steroids than everybody else in baseball. Barry Bonds is the best offensive baseball player I've ever seen. It's not that terribly close.

AL Cy Young Johan Santana

Going over this is reminding me of just how good Johan Santana was. He wasn't quite Pedro Martinez in his prime but he was the best pitcher in baseball for a few years. He rightly won the 2004 CYA over Curt Schilling, who shockingly was the guy who deserved to finish 2nd. And I can't argue against #3 being Mariano Rivera. Cool, guys.

NL Cy Young Roger Clemens

You know how I think Roger should've won in 2005? Well, he shouldn't have in 2004. Which, like, he was good. But Randy Johnson was an all-timer. In a weird way, I think Randy Johnson's '04 was the pitching equivalent to Barry Bonds. Let's compare the two. Randy Johnson had a 0.38 run edge in ERA, which is arguably his smallest edge. He also pitched 31.1 more innings and put up a silly total of 44 walks and 290 strikeouts. Like, that's just not even fair. Of course, he went 16-14 (presumably this has nothing to do with run support and it purely reflects Randy Johnson's pitching abilities) so therefore he lost to Roger Clemens, who ARGUABLY deserved to finish second.

2003

AL MVP Alex Rodriguez

It took a while for MVP voters to warm up to the idea of Alex Rodriguez getting votes for things. Well, at least when he was with Texas (an era which ended after this season). He played on terrible teams and thus people who couldn't quite grasp the concept that a guy can't single-handedly carry a baseball team to the playoffs were afraid. And thus he barely won. But he should have won by a ton. Only two guys were statistically close offensively, and they were arguably better hitters, but this was still during A-Rod's shortstop years. One of the great mysteries of modern baseball is why mediocre fielder Derek Jeter got to stay at the toughest field position while the really good defensive player Alex Rodriguez got moved over to awkwardly hang out at third. Regardless, he was a really good defensive player. The two other guys were first baseman Carlos Delgado and Worst Fielder I've Ever Seen Manny Ramirez.

NL MVP Barry Bonds

This was the closest Albert Pujols came to supplanting Barry Bonds as a deserving MVP candidate and had the Cardinals made the playoffs, he might have pulled it off (for dumb reasons). But in what was the most bleh season Barry Bonds had over a four year run, he had a mere .529 OBP, only hit 45 home runs, and only drew 148 walks. What a bum.

AL Cy Young Roy Halladay

I for some reason forget that Roy Halladay was winning Cy Youngs when I was a freshman in high school. But he was, apparently. Fuck if I remember. I was too busy deluding myself into thinking I might get popular all of a sudden and listening to Puddle of Mudd unironically. But anyway, this was a classic case of results vs. innings, which is really hard to evaluate most of the time. On basically a sliding scale, the top three getters went in order from least-to-most effective to most-to-least innings. But in spite of the fewer innings, Pedro Martinez was just ridiculously effective. Can't argue against Halladay but, like, Pedro Martinez was pretty awesome in 2003. And in most years. He also had a little person he seemed to keep as a pet. Baseball used to be a lot more fun than it is now.

NL Cy Young Eric Gagne

As I've said, I'm not opposed to relievers winning Cy Young Awards. So it really boils down to "Is there a worthy starter?" And the answer is an emphatic "I guess." The best is probably Mark Prior or maybe Jason Schmidt (lol 2003) and perhaps I'm saying this with the retrospect of knowing that neither Mark Prior nor Jason Schmidt had careers beyond like two years from this point, but Eric Gagne was absolutely unfathomable as a closer. As good as Rivera was for sustained excellence, I believe that Eric Gagne was, for a couple years, the best closer in MLB history. WAR disagrees with me, and I can't really justify this all that well, but I'll go with Gagne, followed closely by Prior and Schmidt.

2002

AL MVP Miguel Tejada

This had to be a real dilemma for Billy Beane. On one hand, Tejada's your guy. On the other hand, everything you stand for professionally says that giving Miguel Tejada the MVP award is insane. I mean, Tejada had a decidedly okay year. Like, TRANSCENDENTALLY okay. But Alex Rodriguez had a terrific offensive year and, as with 2003, the only guys comparable to the slick-fielding shortstop were either first basemen (Jim Thome, Jason Giambi) or an honorary first baseman (Manny Ramirez). So A-Rod was a clearly deserving winner. 

NL MVP Barry Bonds

Are you sick of me gushing over Barry Bonds? Yes? Well, he had an on-base percentage of .582 and a slugging percentage of .799. That is all.

AL Cy Young Barry Zito

Pedro Martinez did a thing for a while where he pitched insufficient innings but absolutely destroyed in them. And if I'd pick him over Halladay in 03, I'm pretty sure I have to pick him over Zito in 02. Sorry, Brad Pitt.

NL Cy Young Randy Johnson

This is about as easy as it gets. And hell, this is easy in a year where Randy Johnson actually won it! #2 is Curt Schilling, who also had an awesome year but with a 3.23 ERA instead of a 2.32 ERA. fWAR says Schilling was better by 1.3 wins. bWAR picks Unit by 2.18. Weird. I'm picking Randy Johnson. Also, I want to create a statistics website calling Going Yard Statistics so that I can call my WAR formula GWAR. This can't go wrong.

2001

AL MVP Ichiro Suzuki

First of all, I've never quite decided of whether I want to refer to him as "Ichiro Suzuki" or just "Ichiro". I think it's fair to use them interchangeably, personally. Unfortunately, and I say this as somebody who LOVES Ichiro on a "I love watching him play because he's just so damn fun" level, he didn't deserve the 2001 MVP. Voters, it seems, were awfully infatuated with his story (being a 28 year old rookie from the Japanese league) and neglected the truth--while he had a league-leading batting average and had a cannon arm in right field, his average was only marginally better than Jason Giambi's, who drew over four times as many walks in fewer plate appearances and also had actual power numbers. Ichiro was undoubtedly the most valuable player in the AL in terms of a fielding/running combination but Giambi was a FAR superior hitter. My #2 would be A-Rod, who finished sixth and garnered zero first place votes.

NL MVP Barry Bonds

This was the first year of Albert Pujols and thus the first year than Cardinals fans irrationally tried to argue early-2000s Pujols, who was awesome, was better than early-2000s Bonds. And he had a good year but Barry Bonds was just other-worldly in this and every year. Actually, by the insane standards he set, this year in which he merely had a .515 OBP was lackluster, but he also slugged a ridiculous .863. Oh, and he also hit 73 home runs. #2 was Sammy Sosa, who hit 64 home runs, which I forgot happened. Ah, steroids. Fourth on my ballot (the ballots only go to three) would have been Luis Gonzalez, who hit .325 and hit 57 home runs. Things are weird.

AL Cy Young Roger Clemens

Because wins are everything in pitcher evaluation, Roger Clemens won a Cy Young in one of his more nondescript seasons. There really wasn't a tremendous season that year that overwhelmed the competition but the statistically best was Roger's teammate Mike Mussina. He only finished fifth, not even coming close, but he finished a close second in ERA while exhibiting terrific control and still putting up respectable strikeout totals. My ballot goes Moose, Freddy Garcia, Mark Mulder. With Clemens at fourth.

NL Cy Young Randy Johnson

There are only two guys worth even mentioning, and Curt Schilling barely merits conversation as well. He showed solid control and put up strong strikeout numbers by comparison to pretty much anyone that isn't named Randy Johnson. But Randy Johnson was putting up 13.41 strikeouts per nine innings. Seriously. Read that again. Voters actually got this ballot 100% correct: Johnson 1, Schilling 2, Matt Morris a distant but deserving 3.

2000

AL MVP Jason Giambi

Honestly he deserved an MVP in 2001 and didn't in 2000, so I guess there's some sort of cosmic justice in the baseball universe. Now, his 2000 was arguably better than his 2001 but 2001 didn't include Pedro Martinez, who was busy being incredible for his few years. More on Pedro when I get to Cy Young, but a couple standouts: My #2 is Alex Rodriguez, who played terrific defensive shortstop and had a .035 lower OPS than DH Frank Thomas yet still got fewer first place votes. My #3 is Darin Erstad, who parlayed his strong hitting, awesome defending season into being one of the most peculiarly overrated players I've ever seen (in that he was HORRIBLE yet was generally considered good, though not great).

NL MVP Jeff Kent

Okay, while Jeff Kent didn't deserve the NL MVP, his election wasn't NEARLY as horrible as most people think it was. And it pains me to say this because Jeff Kent might be my single least favorite baseball player ever, and I'm old enough to have experienced at least some of the Albert Belle era. History remembers this as Kent vs. Bonds, an interesting battle of teammates who hated each other. It was an interesting dynamic because it was interracial, intergenerational (judging by Jeff Kent's mustache I'm estimating he was born in 1950), and because it was the battle of up-front prick Barry Bonds versus the much more image-conscious Jeff Kent. But Bonds, who had a better OPS but played in fewer games and didn't play a relevant defensive position, didn't deserve it either. MVP should have been Todd Helton, who led the NL in OPS while playing 160 games and playing solid first base (to clarify, while good defense at first will never be a reason for me to vote for a guy for MVP, it's nice to know he didn't completely suck at it). My ballot goes Helton, Bonds, Kent, and in that order.

AL Cy Young Pedro Martinez

I will choose not to argue this because I can't imagine somebody disagreeing with me. But here is a statistical comparison of Pedro Martinez and David Wells, who finished third and who FanGraphs gives the second highest WAR among AL pitchers that year (personally I'd put Mussina over Wells but this is just for simplicity, neither is close to #1).

Pedro Martinez: 29 starts, 18-6, 217 IP, 32 BB, 284 K, 1.74 ERA

David Wells: 35 starts, 20-8, 229.2 IP, 31 BB, 166 K, 4.11 ERA

BUT WELLS GOT MORE WINS! I kid. Even Cy Young voters, who often cared way too much about win totals, rightfully gave the Cy Young to Pedro Martinez unanimously. They're bad but they're not THAT bad.

NL Cy Young Randy Johnson

These competitions were really silly for a while because Randy Johnson was just so excellent. And by his lofty standards this wasn't even a totally absurd season. His ERA was a tick higher than Kevin Brown's but in just 18.2 more innings, he had 131 more strikeouts. Kevin Brown, who is wildly underrated in terms of being a guy who is a proven steroid user who played really well that nobody seems to give a damn about, somehow only finished sixth in MVP balloting (I'd put him second), and Greg Maddux had a "ho-hum I'm Greg Maddux so all of my seasons are good even though my stats implied regression for fifteen years" season and should have (and did!) finished third.